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April 29, 2010 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: EEM , EFA

I am all in.  This time, a quarter of my portfolio is EEM, and it's probably not enough.

We have injected the easy money into the world economy and found a bottom.  A lot of that money is going to find its way into the emerging countries - the economies that can still make something - and because of structural factors in those countries, the money is going to spur tremendous, robust economic growth there, while the US will be hard put to it to sustain 3% real GDP growth.

I would beware the US housing market for the next year.  There is a lot of chicanery going on behind the scenes to support the market, and there will be bumps as the chicanery is slowly withdrawn and rates start their inexorable climb upward.  Mind you, I am in escrow - I have never seen a better time to buy a house in America, if you want to live in a house and can afford it - but I fully expect to be underwater for 2 years, perhaps 5.  I also expect to be happy living in the house I chose, which is very different from buying a house solely as an investment.

Much props to Floridabuilder (moneychimp), who, from across the country, zeroed in with his proprietary databases and told me exactly what street to buy my house on.  I actually bought one street over, but man!  that guy knows his real estate!

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 29, 2010 at 8:34 PM, lemoneater (78.23) wrote:

Congratulations on your new home! Glad that FB helped you find a good area. Nothing like having smart friends with special areas of expertise:)

If you need any furniture, IKEA is a great place to look--Style and comfort.

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#2) On April 30, 2010 at 12:48 AM, dwot (60.71) wrote:

I have to agree that a home is more then just an investment.

I was looking at the last Shiller price index and there are a few cities that are still above the long term mean, but they aren't that much above it.  Waiting another 2-3 years for a bottom that might save you $10-20k does not seem worth it.  Other places look like housing could come down well over $50k.  For people starting out that kind of extra burden can really destroy lifestyle.  Seriously, when I first bought at the top of a bubble, well, there were lots of other couples that had also bought and you'd go around to people's home even 5-10 years after they bought and quite a few still did not have furniture in some rooms because they were trying to get control of the debt. Report this comment

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