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June 08, 2008 – Comments (6)

For the first time, all my active picks have pitches!

They may not all be good pitches, but they all have one.   

One of my goals is to continue adding pitches soon after making a pick and to do a better job updating them as the story changes and develops.

You may think pitches are written for the benefit of others.  Not so.  I do it to keep a record of why I made the pick.  For example, I had an open green thumb on Wellpoint (WLP) but have no clue what prompted me to make the pick in the first place.  It obviously wasn't a good reason since the pick is under water.

I propose a new term for CAPS:  picknesia - when a player forgets why they picked a stock.

Don't let picknesia happen to you!  Pitch those picks.

 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 08, 2008 at 6:09 PM, JDSancho (99.45) wrote:

That's funny! 

Personally, I know when to close a pick when I have to roll my cursor over the ticker symbol to remember what company it is.

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#2) On June 08, 2008 at 6:49 PM, motleyanimal (87.37) wrote:

Hmmm...but some of my picks are pure momentum plays based on market imbalance, speculation based on nothing but greed, and the adrenaline rush I get from indulging my contrarian nature.

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#3) On June 08, 2008 at 8:08 PM, Tastylunch (29.21) wrote:

I do the same thing, buit I've got behind on my pitches.

I've got three opens that I have picknesia on right now. 

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#4) On June 09, 2008 at 10:49 PM, timattox (99.15) wrote:

picknesia... yep, I can't remember why I picked ASYS...  and it's doing horribly ever since.  At least I know it wasn't from my stock screens. :-)  Anyway, great that all your active picks now have pitches.  Your picking accuracy is astounding rd80! Hopefully I can learn a bit about how you do it.

 

Now, a question for you rd80: 

Any feel on if GHM is now ahead of itself?  I've been tempted to close it, but I've been trying to not sell my winners too soon, which I have tended to do.  See MTL (and many others in real life)...

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#5) On June 10, 2008 at 2:06 PM, rd80 (98.25) wrote:

Tim,  Funny you should mention GHM, I've been asking myself pretty much the same question.  It's defininitely approaching fully valued, if not already there.  IMHO, they need to hit the high end of the CEO's revenue growth forecast of 15-20% to keep the share price climbing on fundamentals.  I think a reasonable range for a 12-month target is 65 - 95 or so depending on where they end up on rev growth, margins, SG&A expenses etc.  No telling how far it can be pushed if momentum players are still rolling in.  Note they've got a good history of crushing estimates.  And I think their market still has plenty of legs.

I don't see any way it continues climbing at the same rate as the past couple of months. 

Long answer short, I sold nearly half my real holdings in it a couple weeks ago at 63 (too early, darn it - but still a double).   Pretty much letting the house's money run with the rest.

I'm going to leave the CAPS pick open and see if it can get me the 200 charm.  But, not expecting that anytime soon. 

Thanks for the comment.  If I knew for sure how I got that pick accuracy, I'd write it up.  Lately, I've been heavy into energy and commodities related stocks and defensive, high dividend payers.  That's been a good combination in this market - no telling if it'll hold up. 

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#6) On July 08, 2008 at 7:56 AM, TMFCrow (97.81) wrote:

Great work rd80!  Keeping a record of why and how you felt when you make a pick can really help us improve as investors (when we do it for our own picks).

You've got me motivated; I'm going to pitch every stock pick I make from here on out!

 Never stop learning!

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