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TheDumbMoney (68.56)

All Recent Activity is Noted in My Comments to Picks



June 18, 2013 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SPY , PM

There are a lot of new people here, and many of the old ones are gone, including one of my old faves, truthisntstupid, a line-cook with uncommon wisdom.  I have been active here now for well over three years.  To review, all of my picks in this CAPS account are real money positions, and they are the only stocks I own.*  My record is very transparent.  Whenever I do an initial purchase I add in CAPS.  Whenever I add to or subtract from the position, I note it in the comments.**  Whenever I sell out a position I remove it from CAPS.  

Recently I rolled two costly 401ks into my self-directed IRA.  A number of new purchases are therefore reflective of this, and do not actually represent "new money" going into the market.  In fact, because I had to liquidate those old 401ks entirely to cash, I am actually about $20,000 less-invested in the market than I was in April 2013.  I will scale in the rest of my investable cash over time, in order to protect psychological capital.

I also run my own blog, TheDumbMoney.  You can also follow me on Twitter, @The_Dumb_Money.  My biggest fights on the Fool have been with goldbugs, who are temporarily in remission.  I famously (in my own mind anyway) bet XMFSincheruna in early 2010 that PM would outperform GLD, and so far I am annihilating him.  He was a well-intentioned, though irascible, guy who I respect because he put his money where his mouth was.  As for me, I manage about $100,000 of my own retirement money and savings, which is about 1/5 of my family's net worth, as of today.  The remainder is in emergency cash savings, my wife's and my present 401ks, and home equity.  Every opinion I state is my own conclusion based on how I think I can best manage my own money and/or grow my family's net worth.  Always do your own diligence and accept your own risks, which are larger than you probably think.  

People who give opinions anywhere -- here, CNBC, or at your dinner table -- on the stock market or the economy, without putting their money where their mouth is, are not worth listening to even for a second.  Always understand whether the true motive of the people you are listen to is making money based on trading/investing pursuant to their opinions, or something else.  Only the profit motive is strong enough to overcome our biases, prejudices, assumptions, and denialism, and even that motive is not strong enough most of the time.

Happy investing! 

 *Except that I also own ABBV, because of the ABT split. I did not realize the would not give me a new ticker for this on the split date, and by the time I realized the error, I did not think it was a good idea to add it at a time unconnected with when I truly acquired it.  If I had ABBV in my picks, it would add at least 15 points to my score as of today's date. 

**Four of my positions, BDX, LMT, UNP, XOM are DRIPS, and I don't make comments on my monthly adds of $50 or $100, because these are automated.  Just note I'm making small monthly purchases unless stated otherwise.


6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 18, 2013 at 7:23 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (84.56) wrote:

Good stuff, TDM.

Read all the pitches and this line about the risks for UNH-

All Boomers die young, quickly, and cheaply due to excessive drug use in the sixties and seventies.

Had me literally laughing out loud.

Not sure what happened to my buddy Truth. I checked a few other investment websites that I knew him to frequent, and no dice. (hope he's all right)

I still say you own way too many stocks, but as long as you can keep up with them all...


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#2) On June 18, 2013 at 7:44 PM, TheDumbMoney (68.56) wrote:

Hi Harry, nice to hear from you.  Keep in mind probably 25% or 30% of my net worth is home equity, whatever that actually means.  It's funny-money that will disappear at least in part if the housing market turns south again.  And of our family's 401k money, not all is in stocks.  And even in my self-directed IRA, where I have around $72,000, $20,000 of that remains in cash per the above.  So relative to my net worth, it's not like I'm all in stocks.  I too would like to know what happened to Truth.  He totally dropped off the face of the digital earth.


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#3) On June 18, 2013 at 8:07 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (84.56) wrote:

Hey man consider yourself lucky, since I'm underwater 0% of my net worth is home equity. (no worries it's cheaper then rent, and I bought to have a roof over my head, not as an investment)

What I meant was total stocks owned, not percentage of net worth.

Shoot about 80% of my net worth is in stocks, rest in cash and stackable forms. Just with a leaner portfolio of around ten stocks.


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#4) On June 21, 2013 at 1:34 PM, TheDumbMoney (68.56) wrote:

Hi Harry, most of my stocks don't need to be deeply reevaluated very often, which is deliberate.  Examples include Coke, Johnson & Johnson, Union Pacific, Becton Dickinson, and Phillip Morris.  I really only look at them once or maybe twice a year, and I follow news on them.  As long as they are not way out of fair value, I'm fine.  Proctor & Gamble and Walmat used to be in that category, but have fallen a little into the "keep a close eye" category.  That is the beauty of owning stocks with wide moats and powerful business models.  That is also why I focus a lot of my analysis on value plays like Microsoft and Intel, and growth stocks like Intuitive Surgical and Sodastream and even Google.  It is not that I am obsessed with the latter stocks, it is that they require more effort, because there when I purchased them and for a significant time while I held them, I was really betting against the market, betting that its thesis was wrong and mine was correct.  With Coke, I have never bet againts the market by buying, though by not adding in the last few yeasr I have been betting against the market. :-)



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#5) On July 05, 2013 at 4:06 PM, brokhernowhysher (64.58) wrote:

Add me to the list of those who miss Truth.  He always had real reasons for his picks, not just hunches.  Keep up the good work, wish I had more time to pitch and blog myself. 

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#6) On July 06, 2013 at 6:29 PM, TheDumbMoney (68.56) wrote:


Apparently banned him because he was complaining about their videos.  He tracked me down after this post (he still lurks) and he is on Twitter at @Fan2002Robin


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