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reddingrunner (95.96)

All-Stars, Schmall-Stars

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August 11, 2007 – Comments (3)

You've gotta love a CAPS all-star with a score of 99 and an accuracy of 80+% on 300+ picks, right?  That's what I thought too but when I went to JTODDO4's page I discovered that of his 57 current picks he's got 4 winners and 53 losers!

Big losers, too:  you coulda got rich just picking the opposite of what he's got.  (Apparently his strategy is to never sell a loser, hoping that somehow someday it will be up 5% and then he can sell it as a winner).

Not to pick on him (or her?); just to add my voice to the wish that when CAPS gets revised they find a way to achieve a higher correlation between CAPS scores and the players most worth following.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 11, 2007 at 11:03 AM, TMFSpiffyPop (99.41) wrote:

CAPS shows every pick anyone has ever made. Go to the Ended picks for any player to see what he/she has closed out. CAPS wouldn't be a very good site if, upon ending picks, our system promptly forgot what you'd done. It would be like if Warren Buffett didn't earn any profits if he ever closed out an investment. I'm confident that any 99-rated player has amassed significant Score. Fool on. --David

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#2) On August 11, 2007 at 2:06 PM, jcm56 (99.12) wrote:

As an all-star myself, I recommend you look more closely at the numbers.  I have yet to close any of my picks, and I only predict 'outperform' with a long-term perspective (2+ years).

I share your sentiment (that score leaders aren't always worth following), but my complaint is that people who simply play 'short-term underperform' calls can amass thousands of poins when the market simply goes up. (This is because even underperform calls are compared to the S&P 500, so when it goes up and your stock stays put, CAPS records the net difference as a gain for you.)

My advice: look for players with the "yes man" icon and the "long-term" icon.  That group is worth following. 

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#3) On August 13, 2007 at 12:45 AM, reddingrunner (95.96) wrote:

Hi David,
You are right, but when I look at mutual fund managers I want to be able to distinguish between those who were good in the past and those who continue to outperform.   Somehow I'd like to see CAPS scores give recent performance more weight than previous years' performance.

JCM56,
Thanks for the tip, I didn't know about the "yes man" icon.  Now if there was only a "diversified" icon for players who don't have more than 30% in any one sector!

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