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Allied Irish Banks

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January 20, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: AIBYY , ACAS

I bought AIB for around $1.15 today. I really don't know whether or not it's going to go to 0, but I figure my odds of a triple are good enough to justify risking a strikeout.

This is in the same class of ACAS, but even riskier. If they do manage to return some of their monster cash flow to shareholders in a dividend, it will be a coup, driving the stock price to several times what it is now. But maybe they won't be able to.

Meh.

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 20, 2009 at 8:22 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

less risk. ACAS will go from 3.70 to 0, whereas AIB may or may not go to 0.

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#2) On January 20, 2009 at 9:39 PM, FleaBagger (29.77) wrote:

You have nothing to back up that claim of certainty. ACAS's assets still generate tons of cash, and their leverage levels are 1:1. A 5% write-down in ACAS's assets would not even trigger the scary parts of their debt covenants, whereas a 5% write-down of AIB's assets would completely destroy the company. Furthermore, ACAS's assets are more valuable, on average, because they still generate income.

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#3) On January 20, 2009 at 10:44 PM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

ACAS is a mere bad quarter from getting hit by the debt covenants. The economy won't recover until 2010 at the earliest. Thus, ACAS will have to write more stuff down. They're dead. I haven't followed AIB's story nearly as much, so the reason I'm more optimistic is ignorance. I don't know about AIB's skeletons whereas the truth on ACAS is clear for all to see.

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#4) On January 22, 2009 at 12:05 AM, FleaBagger (29.77) wrote:

Yeah, you're right. EDI, nicvo, BravoBevo, MysterInsidious, Gtrinvestor, pokeytax, LurkyLurky, and TheGreatSatan are all morons who can't see the noses on their faces.

Condolences that you don't have room in your CAPS portfolio for a richly rewarding red thumb on ACAS.

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#5) On January 22, 2009 at 1:13 AM, goldminingXpert (29.48) wrote:

Pokeytax got good timing on his pick. Congrats to him. The rest of those picks are 30+ points in the red... a bunch of high-rated fools all being way wrong together doesn't prove a whole lot. Everyday picked outperform on it in the 30's and now it's at 4... I don't think he still believes in it like he did back then...

Thanks for reminding me about my failure to re-up my CAPS pick on ACAS. My red thumb is now entered into the system and will go into effect in the morning .This is good timing too on the face of today's dead cat bounce in ACAS and the other financials.

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