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AllStarPortfolio - Back in the saddle (ping rhallbick and Bays)

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August 13, 2011 – Comments (12) | RELATED TICKERS: LGND , FAX , PDS

Well i sure do get treated well by my folk. As soon as i returned from my (working) vacation my son invites me to another (working) vacation. So, Washington state is still cold, and Texas was hot as jalepenos. But let me get on to business. It's tricky to advise or direct this nongroup of internet part time volunteers, who are all better than i, yet of course i'm required to do my best.

Well after our second year into this project i have a few points i want to bring.

**Our accuracy is currently 53.52%. I believe it has approached 70% before and wonder if that could have been better played. Perhaps a more active approach to limit orders would have helped. Several of our picks that are now red were once green by 25+ and could have been easily harvested for about 10 points with a limit (I've been practicing on another Caps account).

** Our current Score: 1,105.05 is roughly equivalent to our All-Time Best: AG +1012.64 which we almost closed at about 200 points wishing for 400. I truely believe that most of those picks are fine. The dividend payers will pay, and as we see with WNR many of these picks could come from -75+ points to +100 in a single year. Therefore i'm not really addressing investments in large companies with safe moats and unique products, or parts that are worth more than market.

What i'm addressing here are inherent mechanics of our portfolio's labor flow, and the prediscussed agreements on the portfolio's direction; ie. 'safe, easy, sleep at night' investments. Specificically, since myself and others are not always available for quick adjustments, i encourage all players to choose their best pick under such assumption. Remember, this Caps account is loosely mirrored at WSS and tricks like letting a pick sink to bankruptcy and calling it 'good caps strategy' won't have optimal results in that format.

So among other steps, i've added the sentence "Picks should be investment oriented, and speculation should be given due diligence." to the directive i usually attach to these post. If anyone wants to comment, feel free.

On the other hand, as i said, I think a bit of attention and a 'turn around the room' will take care of it, so let's get busy

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I wrote that i would go through the account and see if i could see what could be done. One way to address the consideration in such a rebalancing would be addressing the biggest losses, and another would be to address things chronologically. For brevity in this post i will continue with that in another.
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#33) On April 11, 2011 at 1:29 PM, rhallbick (99.75) wrote: New pick. China Yida (CNYD) at the market.

CNYD is not currently rateable on Caps and TMF won't let me set a start limit for such. I will be working this account quite a bit this week and if it is still your favorite pick i can keep an eye out for it.

#34) On May 17, 2011 at 11:56 AM, Bays (99.10) wrote:New pick AABVF.PK.... I've already made a pitch...

AABVF.PK is not currently rateable on Caps and TMF won't let me set a start limit for such. I will be working this account quite a bit this week and if it is still your favorite pick i can keep an eye out for it. `````````````````

************************ TO CHOOSE A STOCK FOR THIS PORTFOLIO READ BELOW

TWO green thumb per person. Your BEST PICK and your BEST PITCH, please. All picks MUST have a pitch, and a time frame. Minimum Time Frame 6 months. Players are free to change the pick as often as caps permits. No leveraged ETFS, and only one .PK or .OB pick per player.

Picks should be investment oriented, and speculation should be given due diligence.

To qualify for a pick you must:

Have a RATING of more than 99 on the day of pick

-OR-

Be a "yes"man with a RATING of 97 or higher on the day of pick

-AND-

Have been a caps player for more than 6 months.

-OR-

Be in the Top Ten at the time of pitch, or have at one time been the Top Fool.

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There is also a shadow account at wallstreetsurvivor where we track with dollars, and compete against Top Bloggers on MSN. Each player gets $2,000 starting money to use as desired between the two picks. Fools who do not dictate their preferences for WSS will have the 'funds' handled by the AllStarPortfolio administrators (me).

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To submit a pick Players should attach their pitch to a blog from this caps account. I will then copy that to the pitch on the stocks page, so that it will be visible on both the stock page and the quickstats page. I will of course place your name, and score at time of pick on the pitch.

You can name your stock here, for dibs (will hold for 7 days), but i will not post the stock until you have made your pitch, and picked a time frame, also.

I am willing to share the password with a few someones, if they would like, to facilitate timing.

******

The tickers for today's post are Friday's highest gainers that are currently green in our Caps account.

-solaris

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 13, 2011 at 1:54 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.71) wrote:

VISA- V

Basically this stock has been beaten down by the government, Yes there is uncertainty on how far they will go. But I highly doubt that this bill will take Visa down. So the shares look underpriced to me right now.

Visa is expanding it's international exposure to almost %50. And their the Market leader in their feild. Yes their earnings will drop slightly in the short term. But if you take a long term veiw this is a cash cow.

As we move forward into a cashless society, I think Visa will remain a leader in all monetary transactions.

I've said this before and I'll say it again- When you buy Visa your getting a brand with a huge moat. No one says they have to pay off their credit card bill. They say they have to pay their Visa.

Fool on.

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#2) On August 13, 2011 at 2:03 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.71) wrote:

I actually wrote that when Visa was about $72 but I think it still applies.

Do I qualify : )

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#3) On August 13, 2011 at 3:11 PM, rhallbick (99.74) wrote:

Hey Solaris,

I suppose that you can drop the CNYD suggestion I made. I doubt that anything will change with them over the next three months and I would expect trading volume to remain very low.

As I explained in my pitch, CNYD is a small, speculative play, with the added risk of being in China. This does not seem follow your "safe, easy, sleep at night" investment guidelines that you outline above. I don't have any problems sleeping, but I see a lot of people are totally freaked out if their portfolio drops even 15%.

Currently, people seem to be afraid of a good number of things and I keep coming across companies with P/E's of 3, 4 or 5, and a market price that is less than the free cash the company has in the bank. If I think that the company will do well over time, I don't have any problem taking a position, but most people would not consider them safe and easy.

Let me give some more thought to this and maybe I can apply some Warren Buffett-type guidelines to a pick for you.

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#4) On August 13, 2011 at 3:46 PM, AllStarPortfolio (41.26) wrote:

@ HarryCarysGhost (99.39) ; Yes, i think you do qualify, and yes i like your pitch. I also notice that V has triggered a Strong Buy on the PSAR with the PSAR outside the bollinger band, and ABOVE the purple resistance line. Also, a growing dividend. Good luck. I will take it at market?

@ rhallbick (99.75) Some of those guidelines were discussed in the early stages of this portfolio's creation, and seemed inherent at the time and didn't make the edit. Thank you for your consideration.
I also am seeing companies with P/E's of 3 and similar that might have seemed speculative earier, but seem like screaming buys now. Without putting words in your mouth let me say; if they made money last year, they will make money next year. There is a difference between 'speculative and thinly traded' and 'Out of favor? this is rediculous. Can't you fools see this company makes a profit?'.

good luck.

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#5) On August 14, 2011 at 4:18 PM, TSIF (99.95) wrote:

Hi Solaris, welcome back!

Both my picks (SVNT and STEC) have some buyout potential, but the S&P also moves on. I closed some of my picks in my portfolio and reopened them as I still believe they have decent upside, but not at the price I first picked them. Please close SVNT and hold STEC for now. I'll work on a new pick. I have a few ideas in this distressed market, but I appreciate your thoughts on safer picks. Overall, you are working with a bunch of "allstars" who like to hit homeruns. It's hard to play long term, but a team can do more with consistant walks or singles than strikeouts and an occasional homerun.

There aren't many "players" here on ASP, but it might be worth a quick check to see if any have bomb charms and have departed the play. If we can keep active players we should do better.

Also, I would think that we might want to be a little lighter on the accuracy metric for reasons you indicated. If you're tying it to WSS then our accuracy is less important.

Take care!

TSIF

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#6) On August 16, 2011 at 8:57 PM, goldminingXpert (99.85) wrote:

Thanks for sticking with me on WNR. It was unpleasant there for awhile, but it all paid off in the end.

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#7) On August 16, 2011 at 11:05 PM, AllStarPortfolio (41.26) wrote:

Hi TSIF, and thank you for your constant support. I have read up on SVNT, and i think it will likely be bought, but when and for how much?

I have set a sell limit on it using a formula i developed here on Caps for distressed picks. I calculate 10%(points) of the original price and deduct it from the current price. This leaves plenty of room for the stock to play; in this case SVNT was picked at 12.79 and the current price is 4.24. Subracting 1.27 from 4.24 i set the sell at 3. This leaves SVNT the ablility to wander down up to 33% of it's current price, but only risk 10 points (sans S/P), while giving me the feeling that something has been done.

If in the future i check SVNT and it has risen considerably, i will apply a similar tactic, and see if it eventually makes its move.

So much for Caps. Now there is a question about WSS. OH WAIT.

I REFUSED TO BUY SVNT BECAUSE IT WAS TANKING. For once i was right. heh.

Please go to your pitch and advise any readers?

PS; i would be 'lighter on accuracy' if our total points weren't all represented by one stock that we almost closed at 200 points. I'm just sayin's is all. . . This is an investment site.

goldminingXpert (99.69) I never really doubted you much. You usually sound like you do your research. GOT ANOTHER ONE?

Hey, wanna set a sell limit on WNR? Set it for 50% of original price? Less 4.27 = 12.85? Or is that unnecessary because WNR is a WINNER? Looks like they used to pay a div . .

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#8) On August 17, 2011 at 12:03 AM, goldminingXpert (99.85) wrote:

Actually, go ahead and close WNR now, as long as you can close it around seventeen or eighteen. The last earnings report was not very good, so I have trouble seeing the momentum getting going again anytime soon, and the stock is up enough that we can lock in a fairly nice gain here. Would have been nice to take it out over twenty, but I think we can still mark this trade down as a winner. :)

I am expecting another pullback in the market, but I have my eye on a couple new long plays and if any of them drop a few more percent, I will be happy to make a new pick, and I will even include a pitch this time.

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#9) On August 17, 2011 at 12:06 AM, goldminingXpert (99.85) wrote:

Would you mind putting a pitch on it just saying it was a goldminingxpert pick, (you also can scold me for not writing it up within that pitch if you wish) for posterity sake? Thanks.

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#10) On August 17, 2011 at 12:49 AM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Of course. I should have wrote something sooner.

I'll do a good job.

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#11) On August 17, 2011 at 3:39 PM, TSIF (99.95) wrote:

Solaris, your closing algorthym has some merits to help us in many cases. We should agree on a close limit for all the picks going forward. This would take some of the personal nature from the pick and the communication issues that we have over time. Players would be responsible to ask for that close limit to be adjusted if they were watching thier pick and had reason to lower or raise it after making the pick.

IN the case of SVNT, I agree with a low limit since the "damage is done", but leaving it open precludes me making a new pick that might be more beneficial to the portfolio. I would prefer a close on this one when you get a chance and I'll flag a new pick.

Thanks!!

TSIF

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#12) On August 17, 2011 at 8:57 PM, Bays (99.23) wrote: