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June 26, 2011 – Comments (10)

Life has been changing for me. First big change was my daughter born in may 2010. Then i left the farm i had been working at for 6 years in January. Lot's of changes there; residence, employment, bills, friends, free time.

   Things are going well though. This week i go on vacation for 10 days, and when i get back I will have some investment cash. Though the question will be, "Is it time yet?"

   Some of you may have notice that i haven't updated the portfolio over at WallStreetSurvivor. If you were watching close you may have also noticed that we've been in a tailspin since about October, and everything picked for this Caps account after that has lanquished, at best.
    It is my intent to try and add those picks to the WSS account as soon as they give a signal, and having just checked each of them i was not convinced to push the button before vacation.

Also. It is my intent to re-examine each stock in this account, and recheck the Allstar pickers opinion, particularly with down accounts more than a year in the red. This may result in a closed pick or three.

Along with the re-alignment; Allstars with failed picks over a year old who wish to close them will be allowed to do so without reprecussion. I think we should get good picks, not 'punish' single mistakes.

 

Anyway, i probably won't even have time to respond to this till i get back.

good luck!

-solaris

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 27, 2011 at 6:38 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

no need to change my calls on ALNY and DSCO.

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#2) On June 27, 2011 at 6:49 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

we've been in a tailspin since about October

the tailspin appears to have ended though ...

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#3) On June 27, 2011 at 7:42 AM, Bays (30.75) wrote:

I sent you a pick in another blog awhile back...... AABVF.PK

Glad to know you're stil alive and well!

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#4) On June 27, 2011 at 10:29 AM, kirkydu (93.89) wrote:

EXAS, GMO

Both specs, but huge upside v small downside, catalysts nearing.

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#5) On June 27, 2011 at 4:50 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

"Allstars with failed picks over a year old who wish to close them will be allowed to do so without reprecussion."

 You mean you aren't going to beat us with a wet noodle???

 I think part of the problem with this portfolio is that we tend to try to hit homeruns with short time frames in mind.  Since we don't churn the portfolio that much then making picks with a longer view might work better. 

Belated Congrats on the birth of your daughter!  Now there's an investment you'll never quite figure out how to play....best advice is to capitalize on the quality time.

Hope you enjoy(d) your vacation.  I'm not sure when the time is ever "right".  At least misery loves company!!!  ;)

 

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#6) On June 28, 2011 at 10:26 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

PS.  Portefeuille12 looks like neglected or a wayward child compared to the rest of the family....guess there's one in every large family, usually the youngest....    ;)

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#7) On July 15, 2011 at 2:06 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

Sounds like you've definitely been having lots of life changes ... and the unstated but understood stress accompanying your wife's new list of honey-do's ("honey do this; honey do that") now that she's a momma.  FYI, I started a green thumb over here on today's confirmation that Bank of Ireland satisfactorily passed the European Banking Authority "stress test." I'm not sure but I think my only other active pick on this site is General Growth, so this pick will get me up to the maximum of two. If I'm wrong, let me know and we'll delete this bank pick.

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#8) On July 15, 2011 at 4:36 PM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Hi Bravo... I suggest you put your name in the pitch field and your pitch before solaris catches you!!!  ;)

You might catch him on a bad day since the Daddy duties were added!  ;)

Both my plays are well in the red, but I could see scenerios when they might become green again.  Overall though, maybe better to churn some picks, take the accuracy hit and try to get some points building again.  I try to purge losing picks in my portfolio that would depend too much on "luck" to bring them back.  I didn't pick them based on luck, so therefore I was wrong even if they do come back around.  This generally is more productive in the long run as you can go through several new picks and make up for the points and some of the accuracy hit.

All the best!

TSIF 

 

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#9) On July 16, 2011 at 9:28 AM, Bays (30.75) wrote:

Hmm...  I've tried sending my pick to Allstarportfolio twice now..... 

 

AABVF.PK, with my pitch and everything, and he hasn't added it...

What's going on here? It's up 17% since I submitted it on June 27th in this blog.  

 

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#10) On July 16, 2011 at 3:13 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

And here we go:

Bank of Ireland (IRE) is the strongest commercial bank on the green isle of Ireland. That might not be saying just a whole lot with fellow financial institutions such as Allied Irish Banks (AIB), Anglo Irish Bank, and Irish Life & Permanent Group Holdings (IPM).  In the case of IRE, it has been “guilt by association” with these other leprechaun lenders that has driven IRE to recent lows, but that presents opportunities for us and for IRE. 

On the other hand, the European Banking Authority “stress test” reveals a lot about roughly 90 large financial institutions across Europe.  In the results of the stress test published on July 15, 2011, IRE was found just missing the blue-chip tier that includes Societe Generale, Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland, and in a virtual tie with Bayerische Landesbank at the top of the tier of banks that includes heady company like Barclays, Lloyds Bank, Paribas and Credit Agricole. 

The European Banking Authority disclosed eight banks as having failed or gotten an “F” on the stress test. And another sixteen banks barely passed the stress test, or would have received the equivalent of a “D” grade. In contrast, IRE received the equivalent of a "B+" or "B", and is in an enviable position to cherry-pick the commercial credits it wants from its geographical competitors in Ireland.  Investors who appreciate the efficiencies of free market theory will recognize that the strongest bank in a group will have the lowest cost of operations (based in no small part upon being able to issue the highest-rated debt at the “best” possible price (i.e. most favorable to the bank; and the bank’s bondholders get the lowest yield but most secure prospect of full recovery of its investment)).  So IRE's lower cost of funds will procure larger profits for IRE, when lending to the same businesses to which IRE's competitors are financing.  The result is that the strong exploit its advantages to grow even stronger, and the gap between the haves and have-nots gets wider. Sound like the proverbial pot of gold? 

That presents opportunities for investors like us. We put money on the thoroughbred while the market still has the horse priced as a nag.  IRE appears to be a long-term winner, and at today's prices IRE can be acquired at price multiples in the range of its less-desirable Irish brethren.

 

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