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AllStarPortfolio (24.85)

AllStarPortfolio - Thank you GMX

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15

May 22, 2009 – Comments (27) | RELATED TICKERS: BRK-B , AEO , NFJ

 May 12, 2009 at 5:08 PM, goldminingXpert (100.00) wrote:  Jaguar Mining-- JAG.

*******
GMX, you were the first person to just pick a stock for this portfolio. You did it on your first post to my first post. Your initiative was possibly critical to this whole (little) thing happening. Thanks

-solaris

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  One green thumb per person. Minimum Time Frame 6 months. Players are free to change the pick as often as caps permits. No Ultras (FAZ was picked before the discussion was finished, and will be closed soonish). No Bear ETFS.

 To qualify for a pick you must:

 Have a RATING of more than 99 on the day of pick

   -OR-

 Be a "yes"man with a RATING of 98 or higher on the day of pick

    -OR-

 Have at one time been a Top Fool

    -AND-

1. Have been a caps player for more than 6 months.
2. All picks MUST have a pitch, and a time frame.

    -OR-

Be in the Top Ten at the time of pitch

IF A PLAYER FALLS BELOW RATING 80, AND THE PICK IS IN THE RED, THE TOP RATED FOOL OF THIS ACCOUNT CAN DECICE TO CLOSE THE PICK. If the Top Player does not want the task, it will be given to the highest ranked player in the account willing to accept it.

To submit a pick Players should attach their pitch to a blog from this portfolio, or indicate in this blog that they have one on their own page. I will then copy that to the stockpicks list on the quickstats page, so that it will be visible on both the stock page and the quickstats page. I will of course place your name, and score at time of pick on the pitch.

You can name your stock here, for dibs (will hold for 7 days), but i will not post the stock until you have made your pitch also.

I am willing to share the password with a few someones, if they would like, to facilitate timing.

**************************

25+ fools have already made a pitch, effectively 'cost averaging' and buying in even though it's 'not the best time'. I am grateful to those who jumped in right away, because though they may lose a little in the beginning, the project might have stalled without some starters. Several other fools have mentioned interest, but are waiting and trying to time the market.

We are already racking up a few charms, like the Favorite charm, and the coveted Most Helpful Pitcher charm.

Also, we have received 83 Groupies, and 131 pitch recs in less than a week. Not bad? And if i told you everybody that has picked this account as a favorite. . .  well let me just say that, "be there, or be square" comes to mind. Over half of the top twenty players have favorited this account, and that sounds to me like a vote of confidence.

-solaris

*********************

There has already been some interest shown in making an 'Investment Vehicle' to work with this portfolio. We have opened a google group to discuss the possibility. To keep static to a minimum we have created it as a private group discussion. To be invited to the discussion, please send your screen name to allstarportfolio@gmail.com and ask for an invitation. Thanks.

One idea i like is to start a private corporation, and use a model like foliofn, wherein we would create the portfolio with equal wieghts, and folks would be able to invest any amount they want, receiving partial shares.

*******************

Well i was going to make a blog today that said, "NO MORE RULES" but that might have to wait, because this morning UltraContrarian picked CBEH.OB . Now, i think that he is as good a player as any in caps (did you know that he only picks green 1-2 stars and red 4-5 stars?), but we have had a question about setting up a real life money account and volume on .PKs.
   My friend here in town is a successful chartist, and part of his screen is to demand $70,000 a day from his screen. Now CBEH is worth $4.10 and traded 16,530 shares yesterday, coming to $67,773, which would have slid under my friends screen, but essentially fits his profile.

Of course i posted UC's pick, but does anyone want to talk more about limiting .PK, or .OB picks to volume? how much?

I plan to try and finish this discussion about rules/guidlines and encourage future rule questions be taken to the google group. Then we can just talk about the stocks and stuff here.

solaris

27 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 22, 2009 at 9:55 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

my suggestion: at least an average volume of $500000/day for trailing 3 months at a single exchange (not necessarily in the U.S., London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo, etc. should do).

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#2) On May 22, 2009 at 9:56 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

(to protect your "investment vehicle")

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#3) On May 22, 2009 at 11:15 AM, UltraContrarian (31.41) wrote:

Personally I think PK and OB stocks can fit within the spirit of this portfolio.  I think of myself mostly as an aggressive Buffett-Graham value investor, and my picks of CBEH and other OTC stocks are based on the same fundamentals as much larger companies, not any kind of low-volume technical analysis.

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#4) On May 22, 2009 at 11:29 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

... , not any kind of low-volume technical analysis.

I think that is not the point. They want to prevent front running (see comments #3,9 here) and make the calls "easy to follow" ...

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#5) On May 22, 2009 at 12:00 PM, UltraContrarian (31.41) wrote:

OK, I didn't read that thread.  There is currently $0 in the real money portfolio you guys have been talking about.  Let's cross that bridge when we get there.  It would be perfectly reasonable to assign low-volume stocks a smaller weighting.

-UC

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#6) On May 22, 2009 at 12:25 PM, AllStarPortfolio (24.85) wrote:

I like the small weighting on low volume idea? Because i hate the idea of arbitrarily dismissing a potentially good trade, promoted by a good trader.

UltraContrarian , as far as the zero money, we may not be very far away from that. On the google group set up for it we have a few pledges, and several leads.
   It might take a few weeks/months to get the cash on the barrel head, but that time will go past quickly, and it is better to be ready.

   My current idea is post #5, UC.

-solaris

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#7) On May 22, 2009 at 12:47 PM, motleyanimal (90.89) wrote:

Here is one for you, since I have managed to crawl above 99 again today.

Treehouse Foods (NYSE: THS)

Treehouse first-quarter profit rose more than six fold, driven by its retail grocery business, and it raised its full-year adjusted profit outlook. Q1 EPS $0.39 vs $0.07.

Value/private-label food producer, TreeHouse Foods Inc. raised its profit guidance for 2009 after reporting that its first-quarter profit spiked due to lower expenses and a strong performance by its retail grocery segment.

TreeHouse now expects its full-year profit to range from $1.82 to $1.87 per share, up from its previous guidance of $1.80 to $1.85 per share.

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#8) On May 22, 2009 at 12:56 PM, JibJabs (91.54) wrote:

The legalise on these posts is getting to be quite much.

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#9) On May 22, 2009 at 1:04 PM, EggplantWizard (99.54) wrote:

"8) On May 22, 2009 at 12:56 PM, JibJabs (63.42) wrote:

The legalise on these posts is getting to be quite much."

 

 

I agree -- there are still some important issues to discuss about how to make the portfolio automatic, and its an interesting investment experiment, but it would be best to keep the majority of future discussion of a potential real money investment vehicle in a private forum.

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#10) On May 22, 2009 at 1:14 PM, AllStarPortfolio (24.85) wrote:

motleyanimal (99.04), I have your pick.

JibJabs, EggplantWizard , that makes at least three of us that think, in varying levels, that a lot of this jabber can move to http://groups.google.com/group/allstar-invest.

Just today i wrote;  Well i was going to make a blog today that said, "NO MORE RULES" but , yet it keeps coming up that it doesn't matter. I think that if we don't shoot for the target, we're not likely to hit it.

Jabs, maybe you could skip this blog, and just go straight to the portfolio. Check the favorites page on allstarportfolio for a lot of good pick info.

-solaris

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#11) On May 22, 2009 at 1:15 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I would not dismiss the front running concerns so easily. Have a look at First Majestic Silver Corp. for example (FRMSF.PK, FR.TO).

#8) On May 13, 2009 at 11:39 PM, ChrisGraley (98.59) wrote: FRMSF.PK ...

Now have a look at these charts: 1,2.

As you can see the volume for this stock is rather low on either stock exchange.

Now have a look at the "caps" game "scorecard" for this stock: 1.

26 players have chosen to give the stock an "outperform" rating after chrisgraley made the abovementioned call. Compare this to the frequency of "outperform" calls before he made the call.

I am not suggesting that chrisgraley did front running. But I am suggesting that he could have done so and more importantly I am suggesting that this will be an issue in the future and has been an issue in the past and everyone should know that front running is being successfully done thousands of times every day (see this video (remember the Jon Stewart / Jim Cramer clash?) to see what else is "going on").

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#12) On May 22, 2009 at 1:18 PM, EggplantWizard (99.54) wrote:

I think that we could allow these picks in the portfolio, but just weight them at "0" if they fall below a certain volume level in a potential real money portfolio.

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#13) On May 22, 2009 at 2:23 PM, pjani06 (29.11) wrote:

Require dollar volume/day of atleast $500k on any individual security (stock, etf, pinksheet, cef, etc).

Listen to portefeuille, he has very good advice.

 

Any pick that does not qualify volume-wise is fit for some other type of portfolio, not the allstar portfolio. afterall, it was the words of allstartportfolio who indicated safe, sound, buy & hold investments.  not having volume criteria would be nuts. 

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#14) On May 22, 2009 at 2:45 PM, EggplantWizard (99.54) wrote:

I'm inclined to agree with pjani06, actually (minimum volume criteria of $500k / day in a US market).

 

That's not a very high bar, but it makes frontrunning difficult and frustrating enough that it diminishes the odds dramatically, and also improves overall pick quality.

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#15) On May 22, 2009 at 2:52 PM, AllStarPortfolio (24.85) wrote:

Some fools think this volume x dollar / day is an very important stat, and though i'm not an allstar, i think is sounds important.

It would be easy to tier securities to several various weights according to their volxdol. Perhaps 2 or 4 quantums?

One thing i like about the multi quantum theory, is it would mesh this game to cash without threatening the integrety of either.

-solaris

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#16) On May 22, 2009 at 7:18 PM, UltraContrarian (31.41) wrote:

I don't understand how hypothetical frontrunning is going to pose a serious threat to the portfolio. Just make a limit order and stick to it.  If it doesn't execute there are plenty more fish in the sea.

There are legitimate reasons to exclude OTC stocks if that's the consensus.  Increased accounting risk is probably the biggest one.  But frontrunning is a bogeyman.

As far as "overall pick quality", I am looking for profit, not quality. It is well known that small caps have outperformed large caps over the long term.

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#17) On May 22, 2009 at 7:20 PM, EggplantWizard (99.54) wrote:

Increased accounting risk is a very serious concern as well -- and front-running is possible even with thinly traded major exchange stocks. Minimum average daily volume for inclusion seems most appropriate.

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#18) On May 23, 2009 at 3:40 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I don't understand how hypothetical frontrunning is going to pose a serious threat to the portfolio. Just make a limit order and stick to it.  If it doesn't execute there are plenty more fish in the sea.

...

But frontrunning is a bogeyman.

The threat is there. The front runner might push the price up getting in (before the players / "the investment vehicle" "following the call" by buying and might push it down getting out (again before the players / "the investment vehicle" sell). In this case the players / the vehicle might have a smaller gain (or a greater loss) with that trade than they would have without the front running.

And the trust in the portfolio / investment vehicle takes a hit when the front running is noticed.

I have written a small post on this where the issue of front running in the context of the "caps" game can be discussed. It is here.

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#19) On May 23, 2009 at 9:56 PM, ChrisGraley (29.80) wrote:

Well since I made the pick before anybody talked about any investment club whatsoever, I assure you the thought didn't cross my mind. Nor that enough CAPS players trade pink sheet stocks to make it even possible. Some other charts you might want to look at are the price of silver in the same time frame and the charts of the other silver miners.

Although I would love to be able to have that much influence, I think that you are looking at a rising tide that raises all ships. (Which was kind of what my initial post was about in the first place)

Also if I was front running, why did I pick this for myself days before this porfortfolio existed and not make a pitch? I only made the pitch when it was required for the portfolio and then copied the same pitch for my own account.

If you want to set a volume limit, I'm fine with that, but we will lose a lot of potential profits if I close this pick now. It's up to the rest of you though. I won't be closing it in my own portfolio however.

Let me know what you decide and I'll come up with a choice for silver that I'm less enthused about.

Currently I'm looking at a price for silver of about $45 before I exit this stock. It will be the first silver stock I exit because of the volatility of pinks. In that little thing inside my head I'd like to call a brain, I can seriously see the possibility of $80 silver though. Whether or not I wait that long with my other silver stocks, I can't tell you, because I don't know.

 Honestly this is starting to become a little more of a hassle than I thought it was gonna be. Every day more and more rules discussions and limitations. Why can't everybody just let AllstarPortfolio ride without trying to control it? If you have a club investing in this stuff, save the rules for the club. If you think that you just absolutely need to burden the players that volunteered before you came up with that fantastic rule idea, save it for AllstarPortfolio2.

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#20) On May 24, 2009 at 3:26 AM, AllStarPortfolio (24.85) wrote:

ChrisGraley , we are working directly towards the idea of having minimal rules, and moving discussions not related to Caps off this blog. I am trying for minimal rules, and so support Caps ,PK and .OB picks like you and Bravo made, under the assumption that you know what your doing. My proposal above #15) is meant to signal my lean in that direction.
   The groupthink on this is easy to see, and i don't think it's going to be a hassle. I'm sure we are close to the end of the formative stage, and that we will be allowing .PK and O.B picks that fit in Caps.

   Thanks for the advice, and your patience, with the first weeks burst of energy. I think your siver pitch was great, and players are free to open and close picks whenever they wan't

-solaris

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#21) On May 24, 2009 at 4:43 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Also if I was front running, why did I pick this for myself days before this porfortfolio existed and not make a pitch?

-------------------------------- 

I am not suggesting that chrisgraley did front running. But I am suggesting that he could have done so and more importantly I am suggesting that this will be an issue in the future and has been an issue in the past and everyone should know that front running is being successfully done thousands of times every day (see this video (remember the Jon Stewart / Jim Cramer clash?) to see what else is "going on").

--------------------------------

#19 I am sorry you are upset. Please let me say that the statement "But I am suggesting that he could have done so ..." probably was not as well formulated as it was meant to be.

Please replace "could have done so" by "might have had the opportunity" and let me assure you that I was 100% sure that that was not your attentionwhen I wrote it.

Also I picked your call in a rather random way as an illustration. I could not chose myself because FACT has a much higher volume and because people actually have used my call as a contra-indication more than they followed it (as can be seen looking at the "caps" game "scorecard" for FACT) if they paid any attention to my call at all!

I am sorry, I should have made that clear from the beginning.

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#22) On May 24, 2009 at 4:54 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Please replace "could have done so" by "might have had the opportunity"

Please replace "could have done so" by "might have had the opportunity to do so"

attentionwhen

attention when

I could not chose

I could not choose

--------------------------------

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

I will proofread what I have written before posting it.

...

 

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#23) On May 24, 2009 at 5:52 PM, Tastylunch (29.27) wrote:

I think portefeuille's concern about frontrunning  is a valid one although I doubt any has used CAPS so far to do that.

It doesn't take many CAPS dogpilers following in real life to move a low volume stock. especially if they are unwise enough to use a market order....In the ultra low volume stocks one order is all it takes.

Dogpiling allstars definitely happens a lot in CAPS. I'm absolutely certain that people followed floridabuilder's calls with real money. I did a couple times myself and made some bank off of it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if people did the same to goldminingxpert or Everydayinvestor. Goodvibe4ever is another I'm sure people copy with real cash. BravoBevo probably too.  and I imagine portefeuille himself will have real life copiers if he doesn't already.

but if a stock has sufficient daily volume it should not be a major problem.

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#24) On May 24, 2009 at 5:53 PM, Tastylunch (29.27) wrote:

oh and good luck with your portfolio, it's a neat idea.

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#25) On May 24, 2009 at 6:01 PM, robstuck (< 20) wrote:

what about Jim Cramer? What about all the people on fast money? If people were listening to their picks all over the nation and gobbled up those companies would they ever be wrong? interesting.. 

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#26) On May 24, 2009 at 11:10 PM, ChrisGraley (29.80) wrote:

Portefeuille, don't worry about it.

If I didn't have an upset attitude when I read it, I would have read "could" for what it actually was.

I was upset because when I volunteered, the only thing the portfolio was looking for was green thumbs from all stars, actually my first thought was FAZ, but I shunned it because I knew that this portfolio is full of yesmen. When Goodvibe picked it, I defended him when everyone was wanting to close the pick. I think that in a very short time, it will dwarf a lot of our picks combined. Then everybody picked on the pinks. I'll tell you right now, that if you drop pinks, you drop BravoBevo. The guy that has made more points on this game than anyone. Then came the volume thing, I don't know about you guys, but even though I may piggyback in CAPS, every stock I buy in real life is my idea. I may look at it more if I saw it in CAPS, but if I'm buying it in real life, I'm spending more time than the 5 to 10 minutes I take to buy a CAPS stock.

Next, the investment club thing. The whole purpose of an investment club is the knowledge gained from the heated discussions that occur before you buy. To form a club that just copies the portfolio is pointless. It's not really an investment club, it's a mutual fund. Any mutual fund that doesn't have 1 guy running the show, will fail. I strongly suggest that if you go the investment club route, that you scrutinize each and every Allstar pick before you buy it. Everybody should vote and agree on it. It's a great venue for ideas, but a poor venue for cut and paste.

Lastly, my view on silver is a long term view. I don't see a quick economic recovery. I think we are looking at a new bubble. It's the government manipulation bubble. We are looking at trillions of dollars being pumped in the system in a very short time frame. The dollar was wobbley before we started pumping. For those of you thinking I'm looking at a short term play, you are mistaken. I'll sell it tomorrow if I see something to change my opinion, but I bought it as a long term play.

I still love the idea of an Allstar portfolio, but I caution everyone to not try to control it too much. Do you want the Allstar's best picks or do you want the picks that happen to fit in your rules?

 

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#27) On May 25, 2009 at 1:20 AM, AllStarPortfolio (24.85) wrote:

Chris, when i first posted the call for picks, i wanted to make sure to ask everybody what their concerns were. I hope that my attempt to air the advice of all has not tainted the experience of anyone reading this blog.
   I'm sure you know that i have posted a 'Final Edit' blog. It is very close to the first, and thanks to everybody with their patience.

I tried to state earlier today that I agree that the caps AllStarPortfolio account should include .PK and .OB., and i have tried to be clear that fools can open and close picks at any time.

And thanks for your advice on the club thing. It's important to me personally to get all the good advice i can on this sort of thing. Whether or not this portfolio becomes an account, You view of such arrangements is important information i want to know as much as i can about.
   I hope that you continue to work with this project. Your silver pitch was almost the best pitch of the portfolio so far, and i think that you are a premium addition to the project.

solaris

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