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AllStarPortfolio - We will allow Two Picks Per Player if there is interest (by the way, why haven't you picked yet?)

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September 15, 2009 – Comments (36)

I think that's where we are at, but I think only one can be .PK?  or am i worrying too much?

Anyway, if you like the idea let me know.

IT WILL TAKE SOME REBALANCING OF THE WALLSTREETSURVIVOR ACCOUNT. One obvious suggestion is that we could stick to $2k per player, and let them spend it on their two stocks. This would allow us to have up to 50 players before we need to rebalance. This would allow those players with .PK picks to get into the WSS game.
   Currently 34 players plus DragonLZ, so over 40 players is not far away.

Fools who want to know how to join this Team Portfolio can read rules here.

 

DLZ, THERE IS A RESPONSE TO YOU HERE

 

-solaris

 

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 15, 2009 at 10:33 PM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

Then please enter SQNM as my second "pick" (no limit).

"pitch": 

---------------

Speculation that their non-invasive gene test for Down's syndrome will be launched in 2010.

from their website:

Sequenom’s technology, SEQureDxTM, is based on the work of Professor Dennis Lo, and isolates and analyzes circulating fetal nucleic acid from a maternal blood sample. The technology has particular promise for developing new, non-invasive tests for fetal gene and chromosome abnormalities such as RhD, fetal sex determination and Trisomy - including trisomy 21 (View selected publications relating to noninvasive prenatal diagnostic technology). Through key partnerships with genetic testing laboratories, the first test using SEQureDx technology, fetal RhD, became available in 2007.

By applying our novel technology to frequently encountered diagnostic problems in pregnancy and reproduction, Sequenom believes it can create a new standard of care to assist women, their families and their physicians with better tools to achieve the best pregnancy outcomes.

For years, doctors have used tests such as amniocentesis or chorionic villus to determine the health of a fetus.

The introduction of Sequenom’s Fetal Nucleic Acid Technology has the potential to be the long-sought-after alternative to these common procedures. That’s because the Sequenom technology is both non-invasive, thereby posing no risk to the baby, and has the possibility to be performed earlier in the pregnancy. Early diagnosis is important because it can help doctors to identify patients at risk sooner and provide treatment where possible.

--------------- 

 

 

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#2) On September 15, 2009 at 10:58 PM, 100ozRound (29.66) wrote:

So we get two picks now? Sweet!

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#3) On September 15, 2009 at 11:00 PM, ipfmanager (95.12) wrote:

I'm in.   COMV green thumb  please.

 

Here's a blurb I wrote on a blog posting of mine about recent IPO's:

 

COMV- Comverge. Ever wanted to sell energy back to your electric company? Stick with COMV! This the only consumer based smart grid idea that I could see working since no matter what type of alt energy becomes popular- you will need COMV.  Better yet, they even have a technology that actually works at this moment in time unlike most smart grid companies.  Although COMV needs to become profitable for you to have equity in 5 years, it is a new company with ridiculous potential. And they are coming closer to profit....I could see their products becoming a standard in many hippe (CA) areas

Reuters:

 

Comverge, Inc. is a clean energy company providing demand management solutions in the form of peaking and base load capacity to electric utilities, grid operators and associated electricity markets. The Company operates in three segments: the Utility Products & Services segment, the Residential Business segment and the Commercial & Industrial Business segment. The Utility Products & Services segment sells hardware, software and installation services to utilities that elect to own and operate demand management networks for their own benefit. The Residential Business segment sells electric capacity to utilities under long-term contracts, either through demand response or energy efficiency. The Residential Business segment also provides marketing services on an outsourced basis. The Commercial & Industrial Business segment provides demand response and energy management services to commercial and industrial customers.

 

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#4) On September 15, 2009 at 11:01 PM, ipfmanager (95.12) wrote:

PS.  Keep my RFMD pick alive too.  COMV is only if youre allowing 2 picks.

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#5) On September 15, 2009 at 11:32 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

don'[t let anybody green thumb any levered ETFs, its certain long term doom.  no matter what that FAZ pick ont he portfolio isn't coming back green.

I can't decide what to make for my 2nd pick.  I may pick a high yielding dividend stock or just wait for the market to crash itself senseless...  or at least pull back a little bit.  lol

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#6) On September 15, 2009 at 11:47 PM, ChrisGraley (30.21) wrote:

I have to think about this! I have about 10 picks, but I need to figure out carefully which one i want to put out there. I'm like a kid with ADD. while I do pick some long term stocks, it was killing me just to pick one and watch a hundred ideas to go by while I'm waiting to prove a point.

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#7) On September 16, 2009 at 12:03 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.96) wrote:

If and only IF we are getting a 2nd pick, I'll line up with Molina Healthcare (MOH) with a 3 year time frame. I'll write up a pitch within a few days, but I figure you arent even adding this for a week or two until you hear feedback from everyone else.

UltraLong

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#8) On September 16, 2009 at 1:59 AM, SolarisKing (23.53) wrote:

UltraLong (100.00) Actually, though all the feedback is not on one blog, there has been a lot of talk about this certain change.

I do think that it will take some blogging to get all the fools up to speed. 

One small problem we will need cooperation with is the WSS portfolio. Each Person who makes a pick will have to tell me how they want the money split. If the FOOL doesn't say, then i will play the money 50/50, but if they want, they can put all the money on one side, or whatever.

$2,000 PER PLAYER will have to be the new standard..

ChrisGraley (99.14) Love your silver pick FRMSF.PK, especially for a long term, but i would like to see you on WSS also. Be patient. Best pick, Best pitch.

checklist34 (99.87) We have a large amount of agreement on the no leveraged ETFs rule. My world is too busy for leveraged ETFs; too much danger. Too much manipulation.
   I have been tempted to stop picking, or start shorting, but there is no telling how long this mass hysteria can ride out. Could be years.

ipfmanager (99.14) Love your pick, and have been watching COMV, but now? you guys drive me crazy. I have a limit of 11.00 on it.
   I will need to know what to do with your WSS RFMD stipend. You have $2,240 to play with. Would you want me to split it in half?

   How about just a few more of your favorite stats on COMV? When you tell me what your allocation preferences are. Growing Earnings? Debt under control?
   After all, it's my job to encourage you fools to greatness.

portefeuille (99.99) Your a loose cannon. But you're right, if that one hits, it could run past it's 52 week high like leaves in the grass. $100 in 5 years, for a 20 bagger.

How much money do you have to play with? After you sold half, you have how much? We still have the limit on FACT at 19. Make a plan and let me know.

ALL THIS IS DEPENDENT ON GOOD WILL AMONGST THE FOOLS. I will post an update tomorrow to this blog, and if there are no (or few) counterpoints, we will start picking this week.

And try to give me slightly better pitches (please). We are developing a rather large following ON THREE MAJOR STOCKSITES, we should have good pitches. It's just two picks/pitches. I know you can do it!

-solaris

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#9) On September 16, 2009 at 2:14 AM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  Not long ago, TMF took notice of good ideas that they want to build into the CAPS game to make it better and more meaningful, including ASP’s model of focusing on allowing players to zero in on their best picks (out of their personal portfolio maximum of 200). According to TMFJake, one of the newer features to be rolled out later this year (perhaps in beta form) will be "Top Picks".  Allowing a second pick per participant allows ASP to reclaim some of the thunder that TMF wants. 

My second pick is the real estate giant General Growth Properties with the symbol GGWPQ.PK for a 5 year time period.  It is one of the very few U.S. based stocks that I know of which should significantly outperform the S&P over the next decade.  

Shown below is my pitch.


General Growth Properties Inc. (GGWPQ.PK) resides under bankruptcy protection. To grasp its potential, it’s necessary to look into its history as to how it ended up in its current bankruptcy status.  Brothers Martin and Matthew Bucksbaum started with a Marshalltown Iowa family grocery store, and borrowed $1,200,000 in 1954 (back when a dollar was worth something) to build a shopping center in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.  From that model, the brothers built shopping centers throughout the Midwest, went public in 1993, moved its headquarters from Des Moines to Chicago, and began an acquisition spree of upscale shopping malls, including the purchase of Rouse Co, the owner of 30 malls that included Chicago’s Water Tower Place.  In the last decade, the company had grown to become the nation's second-largest shopping mall company, with more than 200 centers, but with those properties the company was saddled with $27 billion of debt. Each property is held in a special purpose subsidiary and is financed in large part by debt financing that is collateralized by a mortgage on the property.  Lenders often will take a pool of mortgaged backed loans, bundle them together into commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), and sell those securities into the markets.

As credit markets began drying up in 2007 and real estate properties have been losing their value, the company filed for bankruptcy in April 2009 to obtain protection from its creditors.  U.S. Department of Treasury rules governing the CMBS market historically have prohibited the restructuring of CMBS loans unless the borrower is in payment default of its loan.  So a “performing” loan that has an out-of-date interest rate or repayment schedule could not be modified until the loan would become “nonperforming.”  In a first round of relief to the CMBS market, the Treasury has released new tax rules to allow modifications of loans even if the collateral is currently generating cash that meets a loans minimum payment requirements.  Details are available in this WSJ article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125306317643414339.html

The company lobbied for these new rules and, now that they are implemented, it is in prime position to take advantage of them by restructuring the loans on its many properties.  Modifying the CMBS loans will allow the company to take advantage of lower interest rates and to extend the loan maturities over the extended life of the properties. As these changes are negotiated and applied to the portfolio of properties, I expect several positive results: (1) nonperforming loans and loans that are barely performing will become fully performing, thus taking a special purpose subsidiary owning the now-performing property off of creditwatch; (2) with lower rates and extended maturities, less of the properties current cash flow will be needed to service current maturities of long-term debt, thereby freeing up cash to make needed improvements on the properties and to distribute cash to the parent company; (3) the thawing of the old rules will bring the commercial property credit markets to resume lending, which should ease the gridlock over real property transactions currently experienced in almost all major markets; and (4) the culmination, as least from the viewpoint of the company, will be its emergence from bankruptcy protection.

Now that is quite a bit of work to be tackled before the sun is fully shining on the commercial real estate market again.  And it may take several years before all of the effects are realized, but the seeds are there.  Currently trading at about $3.50, GGWPQ might not ever reclaim its glory days of trading above $70 per share, but in my opinion, the potential problems, risks of bankruptcy, and assumptions of a full-blown economic downturn all seem to be fully baked into the existing stock price.

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#10) On September 16, 2009 at 2:45 AM, AllStarPortfolio (42.55) wrote:

Got you Bravo. You really are one of the best. Thanks for the great pitch.

I will load it tomorrow, if we don't get a lot of votes for one pick each.

-solaris

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#11) On September 16, 2009 at 2:54 AM, AllStarPortfolio (42.55) wrote:

Hey Bravo! Love your pick, but they are both .PKs. Can you get around to giving me one that i can put on WSS someday? Doesn't have to be right away, but it would be nice to get you on there.

Just askin'.

-solaris

 

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#12) On September 16, 2009 at 5:58 AM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

---------------

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management
Bill Ackman laid out an in depth case as to why the equity shares of General Growth Properties (GGWPQ)
are a good investment despite being in bankruptcy. It all breaks down to the company’s assets are greater
than their liabilities. Through several potential workout agreements or a court appointed “cram down” the
equity should greatly benefit from the likely scenarios. As far as a business General Growth’s malls have
over the country 24,000 tenants.
The company has 73 “Class A” malls, and high profile names like Faneuil Hall and South Street Seaport do
not even garner that high rating. At General Growth 50 of the 200 malls create 50% NOI. Malls historically
generate high stable cash flows. General Growth has fixed rates on 83% of debt. This is a business where
inflation is an asset. In losing Circuit City the company lost a tenant paying below market rents. The
company’s problems result of the CMBS market collapsing. The credit market shutdown prevented them
from rolling their debt. They have the second highest occupancy of any mall company. The NOI is actually
from the levels where the company’s market capitalization peaked.
Ackman made the analogy between General Growth and the stuations that occurred at Alexanders and
Amercao (U‐Haul). These were bankruptcies where assets are greater than liabilities. During bankruptcy a
creditor entitled to their claim but no more, and in this case the equity will be left with value. Ackman
suggests two potential options‐ either an extension of current debt 7 years or a debt for equity swap. He
notes either scenario would create approximately a per share value emerging from bankruptcy $20 go to
$35. Another option would be if the bankruptcy court forced a “cram down.” In this event Ackman
exhibited precedents where the company’s interest rates would be lowered creating a better scenario for
the company. Ackman notes the likelihood of forced liquidation by the court is minimized because of the
extreme pressure it will place on the commercial real estate market and other REIT’s.

---------------

(from here)

 

GGP presentation (05/27/09)

(watch that presentation (really pretty with a lot of pictures ...))

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#13) On September 16, 2009 at 9:16 AM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

portefeuille: Pretty pictures indeed.  I didn't need to write up a pitch because your GGP presentation says it all very nicely.  Whether solaris wants to work that stuff into the ASP pitch or not, I'd be okay with that.

Disclosure:  This is my 4th time around to green-thumb this pick. (Yea! 4 accuracy points!)  I got in about 100 points ago.  This stock - like a honey pot for bears - should easily draw in value investors who do their homework.

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#14) On September 16, 2009 at 9:29 AM, TSIF (99.96) wrote:

Darn that Port 'fellow".  I thought you wanted EMC!  :)   It is topping, I think>  You have my SQNM call.  Do you ever sleep?!

I know, you cloned yourself and Port 2-12 really exist. Each take overlapping (cause you're clearly in more than one place at a time) shifts here on CAPs, in research, and in strategy sessions. 

I agree with the two picks. I'm not so fond of some of the other options in the other thread for increasing players. The spread on CAPS between propeller and 99 is actually rather thin. I've made the swing a few times in rather short order and wouldn't be surprised if I did it again if Mr. Market remains acting foolish. I'm starting to get onto him, but no doubt he will turn to a new direction. 

I'll find another second pick.  I'm with Chris, it's harder than you think to put your pick out there and WAIT.  

Thanks! 

 

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#15) On September 16, 2009 at 9:31 AM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

This is my 4th time around to green-thumb this pick. (Yea! 4 accuracy points!) I got in about 100 points ago.

the "buy and hold" variant.

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#531) On June 16, 2009 at 12:57 PM, portefeuille (99.99) wrote: GGWPQ.PK - 2.30 - outperform

---------------

(from here)

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#16) On September 16, 2009 at 10:38 AM, AllStarPortfolio (42.55) wrote:

PORT, since you never sleep, tell me how much money you have available for your SQNM buy on WSS.

IF YOU FOOLS DON'T TELL ME, I WILL JUST HANDLE THOSE THINGS MYSELF, but you might be smarter than me. Each player has 2k starting money, and i would rather that each player had at least one pick on WSS, which would mean only one .PK each (though we know that i will run the CAPS side first, since that's what we do. .. )

Bravo, of course, gets to do whatever he wants. . .

Don't sweat it, We will dial it in a little at a time.

-solaris

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#17) On September 16, 2009 at 10:51 AM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

I guess that depends. Do I now have $2k minus "sum of FACT shares bought" plus "sum of FACT shares sold"? Just "spend" as much as possible on SQNM. It is 4:50 pm over here, so not a good time to sleep.

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#18) On September 16, 2009 at 11:36 AM, AllStarPortfolio (42.55) wrote:

Yes, Port, that was your general equation. On the other hand, you probably aren't bothered by it. If you don't have a preference, i will probably just spend 1k on SQNM as that will be easy for me, but i want to give the players with the most game the ability to control their flow individually if they'd like, for now.

When (if) FACT sells at 19 you will have a load of cash to 'spend' on your next 'buy'.

-solaris

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#19) On September 16, 2009 at 11:37 AM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

great!

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#20) On September 16, 2009 at 12:26 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

I am against allowing just one .PK stock.  If .PK picks are allowed, then 2 should be allowed. 

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#21) On September 16, 2009 at 2:44 PM, SolarisKing (23.53) wrote:

My theory there, BB is that we have this tracking account over at WSS, and that we were very close to not allowing them at all.

WSS does not allow .PK so if a large portion of our picks are .PK then we can not 'track' them there. 

It's very possible that if we took another majority vote we would vote .PK out (it only passed by one vote last time.

But of course i'm not here to argue with individual fools, though it is my 'job' to make the WHOLE thing work.

-solaris

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#22) On September 16, 2009 at 4:14 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Solaris, that's fine; I'm just letting my opinion be known.  I've been the dissenting opinion more often than not, but I'll at least voice my opinion as long as you keep listening to it. 

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#23) On September 16, 2009 at 5:32 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

I agree with bullishbabo from his comment #20 above, if we really are polling ourselves to find our brightest ideas for opportunities within the CAPS game that folks might use for their personal investments.

I understand where there could be spreads or liquidity concerns (by the way, TMFJake is looking into many of the same issues), but banning .PK stocks would prohiit securities such as GGWPQ, of which over 8.3 million shares exchanged hands today, closing at $4.59 (up 24%) with a final bid/ask of $4.58/$4.60.

If the biggest argument is that .PK stocks don't fit the MSN game, then we have a "tail wags the dog" scenario. Not everyone will have two (2) active .PK picks in ASP all of the time.

Again, my suggestion is to minimalize the restrictions.  Let the stockpickers do what they do best. Just between us girls ... if it were up to me, I'd let folks like EverydayInvestor [Did you realize that his red-thumb points make up 103% of his total score? Seriously, now, what kind of recommendation would you like to get from him?], TMFEldrehadabitare and SpecBear contribute their best red-thumb selections, as last discussed in comments #29 through comment #39.  My premise is that at a competitive swim meet, you want each of your swimmers racing his/her leg of the relay using his/her best stroke (butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle).   In the late innings of a baseball game, you want your pitcher consistently challenging batters with his/her best pitch (curveball, fastball, slider, knuckleball, etc.). I understand the "most folks don't short in real life" rationale, but why would we want to handicap eligible participants? Realistically, I don't foresee red-thumbs ever exceeding 15 or 20% of the total ASP selections because of the limited profitability (usually limited to 100% if the stock price falls to zero) of that type of trade.

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#24) On September 16, 2009 at 5:38 PM, caidencollett07 (29.19) wrote:

Great Idea!  Will be working on my second pick in the coming days.  Research will be necessary to find best pick.

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#25) On September 16, 2009 at 7:06 PM, SolarisKing (23.53) wrote:

bullishbabo (99.99) wrote:

Solaris, that's fine; I'm just letting my opinion be known.  I've been the dissenting opinion more often than not, but I'll at least voice my opinion as long as you keep listening to it. 

I think i know what you mean 'babo. I have also been in dissent often in this project. I often feel ok about dissent if the folks have listened respectfully and considered my side before deciding.

BravoBevo (100.00), I think i'm following your point. I have several ideas, and so do other fools.

I am in between a rock and a hard place here. About 1/3 of the players have opinion A, and 1/3 of the players have opinion B, and about 1/3 of the players just will pick a stock compulsively any time they get a chance and could care less about any other aspect.

I feel like ranting, but i'll try not to.

It seems to me that the chance to pick one and only one .PK out of two picks, is a win/win situation. A perfect opportunity to let both sides of the argument co-exist. Those that want 'security' have some and those that want 'growth potential' have some also.

I hope two picks doesn't mean twice the debate. I was trying to help.   :-)

Though some of our players could care less about WSS, there are a few who are very close followers, and even a couple who have WSS accounts and interact on that site also about these matters. There are few (none) accounts that i know of on caps that track their real $ on a public account. 

I would really like the WSS account to be within some respectable margin of shadowing this account. I hope you don't find me insufferable.

I have to find a place to put 20k+, sorta soon. This portfolio, and my personal level of you fools advice, will be the basis of that. I hope that i do better than i did last time, and i'm a little worried. One of the things i hope that this portfolio will do is model good returns with a realistic scenario. So i would hate to mislead the novice by proxy.

So this isn't the super-bowl, it's Saturday backyard league. We want to win, but we have to work tomorrow, and really don't want to get hurt; and it's imperative that we teach the neighborhood good manners and sportsmanship at the same time.

We have 16% returns in less than 4 months as WSS.

I'm not a stock picker, but i do have experience with groups, and managment, and i hope that shows. On the other hand, TigerPackFund is taking shorts and all that. . .  i bet you are already picking for them? maybe? But though their rules are different from ours, and some fools thought they would outshine us, we seem to be doing rather just as well, i think. 

Of course we could schedule some sort of fomal forum/chat/vote. Let me know if you would like to delve into that sort of thing, but i really would like the account to stay something i enjoy and understand.

-solaris

whoops, looks like i ranted . . .  is that a rant? (maybe not).

 

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#26) On September 16, 2009 at 8:26 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

Ha ha, that's no rant.  I appreciate the reply, and will take the liberty of responding to a few isolated points.

On your 1/3, 1/3 and 1/3 illustration ... count me in on the side without a strong preference, but always willing to throw a new (or unused old) idea (back) into the mix for consideration and discussion. 

Even if two .PK picks were allowed, I don't think that ASP would go "whole hog" in that direction (just as very few would pick a red-thumb if red=thumbs were allowed). Personally, I cannot think of a single red-thumb that could remotely be counted as one of my "best ideas".  As I mentioned earlier, it is almost impossible to gain much more than 100 points on a red pick, but the theme of ASP to pitch the "best stocks" means (almost by default) that each of us is shooting for the multi-bagger.  Back to the two .PK issue, I think many folks likely won't be selecting one .PK, much less two .PKs. As of right now (with .PKs allowed), there are 4/33 active and 1/11 closed.  That is about an 11% ratio.  Allowing .PKs without restrictions probably won't change that ratio much at all.

I appreciate that you'd like the WSS portfolio to resemble the ASP porfolio.  That's your choice, and as the administrator you are welcome to require it.  I don't have a problem with that, even though I am one of the guys who don't look at WSS  except when you make an announcement about it. 

The 20k you need to "put to work" might be best "put to work" as cash.  Holding cash doesn't always mean that every penny is tied up every second of the day. Wait until some of the froth of the current rally dissipates.  Before long, you will have plenty of good ideas. Remember that CASH IS KING. 

Responding to your last question - I have absolutely no long-term red-thumbs that I am confident will underperform the market for any period of time. I cannot speak for TigerPackFund. 

If there is a vote (and even if there isn't), I'll go on record as IN FAVOR OF (1) allowing some red-thumbs [although I will probably never offer a red-thumb pick; and (2) avoiding restrictions on .PK picks. Again, I doubt that usage would differ significantly from the existing ratio of .PKs/ All Picks, which is equal to 11%.

 

 

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#27) On September 16, 2009 at 8:32 PM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

... , and about 1/3 of the players just will pick a stock compulsively any time they get a chance and could care less about any other aspect.

I think I am "leaning" towards this camp!

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#28) On September 16, 2009 at 8:47 PM, SolarisKing (23.53) wrote:

 BravoBevo (100.00) wrote:

Remember that CASH IS KING. 

Right now Bravo, you could say "CRASH IS KING".

   I have played caps since Jan 07, and i agree, careful and slow is safer. just fine by me. 

I have learned what 'dry powder' is, and will try to never be caught without it again. I figure if it took me 2-4 years to invest it 20% at a time, i might lose some potential, but i would reduce catastrophic risk. 

One thing about the .PK is; i would hate to never have Bevo represented on WSS. Your to good for me to allow you to wander around. You need to be put to work. :-)

-solaris

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#29) On September 16, 2009 at 10:17 PM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

solaris:  As one of my favorite football coaches was quoted by a newspaper reporter last year (2008) saying:  "Statistics are for losers."

Ha ... so I just went back and looked at my red-thumb picks.  At this moment, I have 32 red-thumbs (i.e. 16%) and 165 green-thumbs (i.e. 84%) out of 197 total active picks. Of my top 10 favorites, half of them are mining companies and the other half are diversified all over the place. Four of the ten are .PK, and I've already shared that one of them is LGCFF.PK

The primary two reasons why I'd like my second pick to be GGWPQ.PK are because (1) that is the only favorite pick of mine that conducts its business exclusively in the U.S.A. and (2) someone recently had noted that ASP was already heavy with mining companies.  All my other favorites are green-thumbs that do business from Canada to Mexico and Latin America, Europe, Africa and China. Previously, we had (through ASP) opened and closed GMK, which is still one of my favorites in spite of the runup that it has experienced.

Perhaps these favorites reflect my concern that over the long-term, we will experience an inevitable decline (although in fits and spurts) of the U.S. dollar as our government will have to monetize the national debt, even while China and our other trade partners look on.  That's about as appealing as getting undressed on the world stage.

 

porterfeuille:  On reflection, I am probably also with you in the "just will pick a stock compulsively any time they get a chance and could care less about any other aspect" camp for most of my CAPS picks - otherwise, how would anyone ever get through 200 selections.  

But for the picks that I care about (like my Top 10), I am probably in the "opinion B" camp - taking a position that runs contrary to popular opinion.  Even now, I'm having an ongoing disagreement ("argument" would be too strong a description) with a well-known TMF staffer. Part of my problem is jumping in too early (before a stock bottoms out and before the bandwagon is boarded), rather than too late. 

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#30) On September 17, 2009 at 9:50 AM, AllStarPortfolio (42.55) wrote:

Bravobevo. I want to be clear. I have no desire to tell the TOP FOOL what to do.

Perhaps i should have a rule that says if you were ever the TOP FOOL then you get waived on all misdemeanors? lol.

But we deal also with fools who are not quite as good as you. Some of these 99+ players have made most of their points in a momentum bull. Some are really hot shot shorters from the previous bears, and not really as great an analyst as you. How do i reconcile all of the factors we are dealing with?

So there you have it. 1 .PK max per person, UNLESS you have been rated 100, and then you can do what you want. That allows me to not bother GMX about his lack of a WNR pitch. heh.

No really. I'm serious.

Now, i just have to figure out how to get Stinky Feet a waiver :-)

-solaris

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#31) On September 17, 2009 at 10:01 AM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

... , UNLESS you have been rated 100, and then you can do what you want.

great! I was #2 for a few hours in May and thus "100.00". So please enter my SQNM call for the allstarportfolio (no limit).

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#32) On September 17, 2009 at 10:02 AM, portefeuille (99.57) wrote:

... as my second "pick". FACT can stay until it reaches the $19.00 limit or I change my mind.

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#33) On September 17, 2009 at 10:14 AM, BravoBevo (99.97) wrote:

solaris:  I totally understand what you're saying regardless of whether or not I completely buy into it.  I'd rather that there not be any special rules for anyone.  I'm fine with the limit to one .PK per person.  There should NOT be waivers from the rule, because that will quickly lead to a slippery slope. That won't keep me from re-raising the issue for consideration from time to time.  :) 

Also, I'm fine with the "no red-thumb" rule, but now that you mention that it is gmx who picked WNR ... well, heh heh, that explains a lot of things ... and inadvertently supports the argument that square blocka (expertise in red-thumb picking) shouldn't be forced to fit into round holes (green-thumbing).

solaris, thank you for being the admin for ASP. Keep up the good work!  (And be glad that you have the "problem" of holding onto cash until you find the right pick at the right price that you can be happy with.)  

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#34) On September 17, 2009 at 4:12 PM, ChrisGraley (30.21) wrote:

Solaris I made a pick on another blog page and I try to find it now and post it here.

 

 

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#35) On September 17, 2009 at 4:16 PM, ChrisGraley (30.21) wrote:

I never thought I would pick a pharma for this portfolio, but my second pick is KV-A.

This stock has been beaten up for quite a while after a run-in with the FDA. They will start manufacturing in the 4th quarter for newly approved GMP (Good Manufacturing Practices.). This stock was trading at $27 last year and can currently be had for 1/10 of that right now (2.77). The technicals all look good and I wouldn't be surprised if it was trading at $10 by November.

They still face some hurdles, so I don't think that they'll hit $27.00 any time soon, but I do expect to see a five bagger within the next 6 months.

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#36) On September 17, 2009 at 4:38 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Perhaps i should have a rule that says if you were ever the TOP FOOL then you get waived on all misdemeanors? lol.

As of today, I am all for that.

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