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Vet67to82 (< 20)

AlphaDog Stocks

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April 02, 2010 – Comments (21) | RELATED TICKERS: CHK , MU , PDLI

 I strongly believe in fundamentals first and foremost. 

  I ran the fundamentals, today, on lots of companies,  looking for AlphaDog Stocks ... stocks that have an ABOVE AVERAGE Risk/Reward Ratio, and that'll return a percentage that I expect will beat the S&P 500's return.  

MU came out "near" to the top of the list:

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $10.37 

1 year target....:      $14.18 

Potential Reward:  36.74%

Foward P/E ...:  7.32

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: 0.87 

Price/Book Value ....: 1.70

   There are many more ... and I'll be adding them to this post ... when I get back, and after I double check the math. 

 

21 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 02, 2010 at 7:51 PM, SockMarket (40.82) wrote:

looks reasonable but I have a negative earnings figure for them (unless you use last Q's numbers only, not TTM).

Do you know why earnings have been dropping, last Q aside, for the past 4 years? Is there a good explanation?

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#2) On April 02, 2010 at 8:33 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for your reply daniel the bear. 

 Actually, I downloaded the PDFs for Q1 AND Q2.  MU had a profit in both Qs.  Trailing twelve months (ttm) is misleading as there was SUBSTANTIAL overcapacity in chip manufacturing, which lead to quarter after quarter of selling chips at a loss.  Due to the market melt down .. much of that excess capacity is bankrupt and GONE, plus, Micron Tech hasn't been sitting on its hands.  New technology from MU, as yet, has NO competition ... like memory that runs at lower voltages, and Intel certified larger gigabytes for MORE RAM ...and static portable and hard drives ... no more spinning disks...  

 ... and my review of MU's purchase of Numonyx, what MU is getting, for the little MU is paying ... that's a WOW! Check it out:

"Why Micron's Numonyx Acquisition Could Be a Steal"

February 10, 2010 10:41 AM       Bob Faulkner

   http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article.aspx?Feed......

... There's MORE b'cuz MU is only ONE of the hundreds I ran the fundamentals on, and  through ... so more to follow, as I promised. 

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#3) On April 02, 2010 at 8:49 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Compuware Corp. (CPWR)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 8.40

1 year target....:      $  10.25

Potential Reward:  22.024%

Foward P/E ...:  18.2

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: 1.20

Price/Book Value ....:  2.15

 

 

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#4) On April 02, 2010 at 8:59 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

PDL BioPharma, Inc. (PDLI)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 6.21

1 year target....:      $7.67 

Potential Reward:  23.51%

Foward P/E ...: 4.64

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: 0.21

Price/Book Value ....: NA

 ... and this one doesn't pay quarterly, but does pay "special" dividends slated for 2010 $1.00 (16.10% yield)

 

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#5) On April 02, 2010 at 9:26 PM, SockMarket (40.82) wrote:

vet,

according to google they lost $0.10 2 Q ago and made $0.23 last Q. (however the last Q given is Q4 2010)

that sounds like a good explanation. They certainly bear looking into.

 

I like the others here too, especially PDLI. I would add:

 

Exxon Mobile (XOM)

Closing price (4/1): 67.61

1 year target: 78.31

Potential Reward: 16%

F P/E: 9.38

PEG: 0.81

Price/Book: 2.86

The reward isn't great, but based on EPS analysis with the addition of XTO and historic earnings they could be worth $90 in a couple years. 

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#6) On April 02, 2010 at 9:44 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Chesapeake Energy Corp  (CHK)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 23.64

1 year target....:      $34.71

Potential Reward:  46.827%

Foward P/E ...:  8.49

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: 2.93

Price/Book Value ....: 1.35

and Dividend $0.30 (1.30% yield)

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#7) On April 02, 2010 at 10:24 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Accelrys Inc. (ACCL)

Sector: Technology
Industry: Business Software & Services

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 6.16

1 year target....:      $ 7.00

Potential Reward:  13.636%

Foward P/E ...:  19.12

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...:  1.03

Price/Book Value ....: 1.97

Dividend ....: NA

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#8) On April 02, 2010 at 10:43 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

 Thanks for your reply again ... dan.  I use my own spreadsheets, ... and my own formulii ... but everyone has the same company generated data ... it really boils down to writing down what is important  ... that might lead to paths no one else is exploring ... or if "they've" found the path ... NOT talking about what they've found. 

  The info I download, is on a company by company basis ... except when I run my screens, and so I can narrow my focus to one company ... or merge data to compare, and sort multiple companies.  It is important to note and compare  how a company stacks up in its industry to identify "above average" numbers ... and then to try to "calculate" how long those above average numbers can continue ... and sometimes those numbers can forewarn ... like decreasing cash with increasing inventory ... waving a little flag "Look at me!"  

I appreciate the XOM ... I was going to get to that one ... and again, as I promised MORE ....   

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#9) On April 02, 2010 at 11:15 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

 If you look around, an economic rebound -- IS --  in process ... China is sucking up raw materials from all across the planet ... the only way to get those huge quantities, economically, across vast oceans ... is shipping.  Dry bulk ... for things like iron ore.  Hmmmm ... DRYS? Tankers for crude and Liquidfied Natural Gas (LNG),  Hmmm NAT, DHT and GASS ??

DHT Holdings, Inc. (DHT)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 3.92

1 year target....:      $4.43 

Potential Reward:  13.01%

Foward P/E ...:  8.95

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: NA

Price/Book Value ....: 0.99

Dividend ....: NA

  This DHT story is in its long term contracts for double expenses ... so while other companies may have lost money during the global melt down ... DHT earned money.  What zeroed out was the "surplus" in shared dayrates over the spot market dayrates which I am confident will return with the global economic recovery ... toward the end of 2010 into 2011, and 2012.

 

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#10) On April 03, 2010 at 12:42 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

In running the fundamentals, sometimes, numbers come up short ... take

TICC Capital Corp (TICC)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 6.59

1 year target....:      $ 4.12

Potential Reward:  -39.30%

Foward P/E ...:  10.74

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: 2.27

Price/Book Value ....: 0.79

Dividend ....: $0.60 (9.10% YIELD)

  ... This says SOMETHING is out of whack ... 2 + 2 does NOT = 4 ... further investigation is necessary. 

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#11) On April 03, 2010 at 12:57 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

I took another look at the TICC report and the numbers ... everything seems on the up and up. 

One note ... "The primary components of
        our expenses were approximately $1.1 million in investment advisory
        fees and approximately $413,000 in professional fees for valuation,
        legal and auditing services."

  Yet, the report says the numbers are unaudited: "

The following financial statements are unaudited and without footnotes. Readers who would like additional information should obtain our Form 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2009, and subsequent reports on Form 10-Q as they are filed. "

   Okay, that's an Investor Relations (IR) question ... I would be asking.  B'cuz ... which is it?

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#12) On April 03, 2010 at 1:31 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

In running the fundamentals, sometimes, numbers come up short ... take

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $42.91 

1 year target....:      $  32.80

Potential Reward:  -23.561%

Foward P/E ...:  14.37

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: 0.72

Price/Book Value ....: 8.94

Dividend ....:  NA

... This says SOMETHING is out of whack ... 2 + 2 does NOT = 4 ... further investigation is necessary.   The PEg and Price per Book value ... says we may be " overpaying " for growth .... or that the market is "too soon" on its pricing. 

  SOOOO, we need to go back and look at the numbers, at the company reports, etc., to see if the growth is sustainable

 

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#13) On April 03, 2010 at 1:57 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Apple Inc (AAPL)

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $ 235.00

1 year target....:      $  261.39

Potential Reward:  11.230%

Foward P/E ...:  20.10

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...: 1.00

Price/Book Value ....: 5.95

Dividend ....: NA

   This is clearly a "Growth" story in the pricing, I should say "underpricing" of the fantastic job APPLE has done in rolling out products consumers want.   Though I personally think Apple could've picked a better name than the iPad for their newest product ...  

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#14) On April 03, 2010 at 11:30 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Please note smith513 and queenying ... I report SPAMMING ....

(1) On April 02, 2010 at 11:52 PM, smith513 wrote:

            ... This is spamming ...   reported !

(2) On April 03, 2010 at 8:14 AM, queenying (< 20) wrote:

And (3) On April 03, 2010 at 8:15 AM, queenying (< 20) wrote:

           ... This is spamming x2  ...  reported !

 

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#15) On April 03, 2010 at 11:55 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

 Many shipping companies trade "ship trips" on the spot market while others have time charter contracts that provide for profit sharing when the spot rate exceeds the time charter rate. 

 There are industry specific shipping indicii, called the Baltic Indicii that track rates shippers are paying/receiving in the spot market.  For crude tankers ... there is the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI).  There is also a "clean" tanker index. 

  Tankers carrying crude can't be used to carry jet fuel, or biofuels, because any crude residue would contaminate those products.  So, knowing what the Baltic Indicii (a product of the Baltic Exchange) are doing will give you an insight as to whether crude shipping companies (like DHT, SFL. FRO, VLCCF, DRYS, GASS, etc) are going to report better earnings.

  When shipping co's report better earnings ... the stock price goes up.  But, here's another important item: Analyst UPgrades.  The shipping sector analysts are watching the BDTI go up.  AND it IS going UP.  Pretty soon, analysts will Upgrade individual shipping co's on the EXPECTATION the earnings are going to increase.  Those upgrades will also drive (gap up is NICE) individual co's prices up!  Look at DHT's recent stock price action and look to see if its price movement was BDTI  Index driven, news driven, or if there were any upgrades. 

  Pay attention to the market, the sector info, your company's info ... and you can beat the analysts EVERY time.

Check out Capital Link Shipping's website:

    http://shipping.capitallink.com/

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#16) On April 03, 2010 at 1:07 PM, SockMarket (40.82) wrote:

vet,

sorry about the edition. I thought you had stopped and what was there was your "more". 

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#17) On April 03, 2010 at 4:58 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks again for the reply danielthebear .... and that's okay. 

  I narrowed my list down to a couple of hundred ...  I tried to "add" part of my spreadsheet as a post ... but the post system turned it into unreadable garbage ... so, I realized I'd have to do this one at a time ...

 Of the 200, I checked the math, (1st place to look when 2+2 doesn't equal 4 ( in base 10 math  -  smiling ) is to assume it was something I did wrong) and realized I needed to do additional "math" and/or fact finding. 

So ... not done yet ... there'll be 80 to 100 company "briefs" before I'm done ...  something for everyone ... bulls and bears.

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#18) On April 04, 2010 at 11:21 AM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

So far, I've laid out (9) and danielthebear (1) with:

AAPL ACCL

CHK CPWR

DHT MU PDLI

TICC VRX

 (XOM - dan)  

  The economy has forced people to pinch pennies ... and with the jobs market, on the mend, but,  still not well  ... I expect companies like the one below to continue to benefit from people's "changed habits" for a year to two years beyond a "complete economic recovery:

Big Lots Inc (BIG) 

Closing price 3/31/2010....: $36.22

1 year target....:      $41.30 

Potential Reward:  14.025%

Foward P/E ...:  11.84

PEgrowth (PEg)  ratio ...:  1.11

Price/Book Value ....: 2.97

Dividends ...:  NA

 

4/1/2010: 36.82 +0.40 +1.10%

After Hours: 36.82 unch/unch Vol. 9,785

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#19) On April 04, 2010 at 10:27 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

I will be posting the following Nasdaq Q-50 companies:

Q=50 

AMLN Add
GNTX Add
LNCR Add
MU Add
RMBS Add
SIRI Add
VPRT Add
WIN Add

Q-50
CTCM Drop
ENDP Drop
ERIC Drop
MDRX Drop
MYGN Drop
PTEN Drop
STRA Drop
TECH Drop

 to my existing Blog on the Nasdaq Q-50:

http://msncaps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=356687&t=02004281496154185991

 

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#20) On April 19, 2010 at 1:36 PM, Vet67to82 (< 20) wrote:

  Margins are an important indicator of every company's strengths, product uniqueness, etc.,  leads to pricing strenght    ... a healthy operating margin is required for a company to pay for its fixed costs and generate cash.

.... PDL BioPharma (NASDAQ:PDLI) has an operating margin of 93.4% on trailing 12 months sales of $318.2 million and sales growth of 8.2%.

    ...Also, that leads to strong expectations that the "special" dividends ... can and will continue

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#21) On May 10, 2010 at 1:50 PM, Bad2dBone99 (< 20) wrote:

+1 rec   onli +1

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