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jesusfreakinco (28.81)

Alstry / GoodVibe / Other Doomsdayers HOW TO PREPARE!

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8

May 29, 2009 – Comments (9) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , SPY

All,

I will echo the sentiment of many on these boards. We all know our country is headed to hell in a handbasket, the question is HOW TO PREPARE.  Alstry says to prepare, but never offers practical solutions on HOW to prepare.  I'll throw out a strategy I am considering and open myself to the criticism of GoodVibe and other pot-shotters...

I, like many of you, am trying to figure out a proper asset allocation if we hit 70s style inflation or worse, hyperinflation, as Faber is suggesting is inevitable.

My strategy is three-pronged:

1.  Gold / silver 

2.  Hard assets / supplies

3.  Foreign currencies

Gold and Silver  -provides typically upside as inflation heats up.  Some call for gold to reach over $3K this year and silver way over 20.  Miners of these metals should continue to significantly outperform the metal itself and are my preference over physical coins / bars.  I expect they will outperform inflation for the next few years and be a good hedge for inflation.  In some cases, with the right mining company, a couple may make a few of us rich.  Mining stocks are also more easily convertible when the metal stops outperforming inflation (i.e. if hyperinflation kicks in and goes Zimbabwe-parabolic).  As hyperinflation becomes imminent, I plan on phasing into foreign currencies and lessening my allocation to gold stocks.

Hard assets / supplies  - anything you buy and can effetively store will be significantly cheaper than buying it 6 months or 2 years from now - dry milk, pasta, raw beans, rice, personal products, guns, ammo, and booze

Foreign currencies -  for the average investor that can't afford a Swiss bank account to keep money offshore, we have to look at domestic alternatives to get foreign currency exposure.  I am using Everbank's foreign currency accounts as my alternative.  They offer foreign currency denominated CDs and checking accounts.  The bank is subject to FDIC and SIPC insurance which may or may not be worth anything.  I believe their investing strategy and growth rate will make them less likely to succumb to failure.  I am betting on the fact that we don't experience asset confiscation or this money is toast.  However, I am not sure I have a choice. 

Alstry / others - use this blog to provide me and others practical feedback on HOW you are preparing.  I'd love some feedback on these strategies and how others see the allocation between these three classes.

JFC

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 29, 2009 at 11:43 AM, RonChapmanJr (92.99) wrote:

For me personally -  

Gold and Silver - None for me thanks.  Unless you get the physical stuff in your hands I don't think it will be worthwhile, and then if you do, you have to worry about keeping it protected and figuring out how to barter with it.

Hard assets - This is the answer for me.  Guns, food, water, etc.

Foreign currencies - I'm investing in foreign equities more than currencies, but I can see the value in doing so.

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#2) On May 29, 2009 at 11:51 AM, 100ozRound (29.44) wrote:

A good strategy is to learn to fish if you don't know how.

Unless they outlaw fishing?!?!

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#3) On May 29, 2009 at 2:42 PM, Alex1963 (28.36) wrote:

Goodvibe is a "potshotter" ? And "doomsayer" ? In what universe?

You're entitled to you opinion but in my book he is helpful, gracious and has suffered more completely unwarranted criticism and outright attacks for simply trying to help and instruct others than anyone in Caps. He gives a tremendous amount of his time without any ulterior motive I have observed. His blogs hhave scads of valuable input from a wide variety of contrivbutors with the gamut of experience, style and success. IMO, the people who seem to most dislike him are those seemingly obsessed about the "damage" he might do to "groupies" who follow his advice yet who seemingly are unaware of the caveats & warnings he constantly gives for his trades and style and even his TA predictions. Or that when's he's been wrong he admits it flat out. The other group just don't like TA or Elliott Wave and in my book are missing an important tool over either a silly bias or a falilure to understand the psycholgy behind the pricinples. Maybe those who honestly (and mistakenly IMO) think there is no emotion in the market and that the market is rationally priced overall with all available info priced in LOL Yeah, right. Like fundamnetals have anything to do with todays market for instance! To me a truly delusional view.

Negative rec for the unfair characterization but I like the overall thrust of your post so rec neutral.  I hope you get some solid responses.

Alex 

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#4) On May 29, 2009 at 6:12 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.81) wrote:

Alex,

I wouldn't have said GV was a potshotter unless he did it on another blog.  Good TA, but he took a shot at me out of the blue and even posted his score versus mine over the past few months, presumably to boost his ego.  Just a little friendly trash talking...  I may have deserved it afterall.  Don't worry, I won't devolve into Alstry-style name calling.

I think that technicals have their part, but I am not a short-term trader.  

JFC

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#5) On May 29, 2009 at 6:36 PM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

I have gold and silver miners. I will sell them at some time in the future. At some future time the market will rotate to another sector.

I have had hard assets for decades. It is just practical cheap insurance for a number of disasters. Water storage may be the most important.

The evergreen idea is a good one. Thanks.

I do not agree with Eliot Wave but I do consider GoodVibe to provide valuable insights as a decent percent of investors at least watch the group who follow it. 

Alstry is a bit off of the wall but he also uncovers some interesting valuable information. 

 

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#6) On May 29, 2009 at 7:49 PM, Alex1963 (28.36) wrote:

jesusfreakinco

Wow, Ok I haven't seem him do that. Thank you for the follow up.

For your blog and what it appears your outlook is might I recommend some books?

Crashproof by Peter Schiff

Conquor The Crash By Robert Prechter Jr.

(yes this is the ElliotWave guru but his economics are very similar IMO to the more pessimistic analysts out there. His take is apolitical, easy to read and full of wide ranging & useable suggestions for the wealthy on down to the modest investor). 

I hesitate to try to summarize them but they both offer slightly different strategies for their rather similar economic scenarios. I got them both at my local library.

Personally I don't yet subscribe to any doomsday scenarios. I'm just divirsifying in what I consider to be common sense hegde strategies: some commodities like oil related, metals & miners, fertilizer etc Skeptical of US T-bills and other US backed debt. Leery of major banks and other financials and real estate. I'm paying down our personal debt, unwinding the last of our investment real estate, sold our second car etc. Whether we have inflation or deflation I'd  like to have as little debt as possible. I don't know which it will be or to what degree but I don't think it likely it'll stay the same as today. I am not worried at all about needing to buy weapons, or that the gov't is going to seize gold or impose martial law. I do think if things do get markedly worse we'll see a lot more social/political polarization but nothing dangerous-just unfortunate since I think we all basically want the same thing-stability and an equal shot at wealth building.

I hope this adds some value to your blog. 

Best of luck to you

Alex 

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#7) On May 30, 2009 at 4:54 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

How you claim or try to convey that you've been criticized by me before by saying "I'll throw out a strategy I am considering and open myself to the criticism of GoodVibe"

What!? I never posted anything before in your blogs to criticize you, your investment style, opinions, or analysis' methods. We never even have a single debate before about anything. Why the reason to bring my name in the title and the blog in such manner? You should ask yourself why. I don't need to know. :)

For the doomsayers characterization.. Where did you get this from? Talk about personal attack that has no foundation. 

For the pot-shotters characterization of me and your reply to Alex, which is the reason of me replying here out of respect to him (as I don't reply to personal unfounded attacks such as yours). You wrote to Alex,

"I wouldn't have said GV was a potshotter unless he did it on another blog. Good TA, but he took a shot at me out of the blue."

...  

Out of the blue! Heaven! That's laughable. I must get the most tolerant person charm on Caps! You quickly forgot your MANY personal attacks that was really "out of the blue" in the March low on my own blog, from your blog, and on many other people's blogs? What fickle humans we are. Not only fickle but also trying to play the victim of GoodVibe's attacks. :) Isn't that funny? People forget that their written words are still there.

You were one of the few people that had the joy and pleasure to disrupt our conversation back there on the March low trying to put people down and destroy their moral. Instead of having an open mind to listen to my opinions in hope it might add some value to your thinking, you decided to be force of negativity speaking ill of me, my analysis, and the people who were posting there every chance you could. I didn't respond to you as it's my policy but let Mr. Market speaks up and humble you decisively, which was my fair respond. That said, you disturbed number of people back then and you might even clouded their decisions.

We moved on and never heard from you since then, which is a blessing.... 

Come last week, when I posted my silver chart on Sinch's blog (not even talking to you because you were not even there yet) to try to help or at the least express my views, you AGAIN "out of the blue" came to wish me ill as if I am an evil force or misguided soul that will get his fair share one day!! What was that for?

My response to you (the first ever) was in the same size (although still kind). I wanted to let you see that you should not attack people personally or wish them ill when your own house is made out of thin glass. What I wrote was a a fair assessment of your STRONG opinions towards me and my TA, while you yourself providing bad calls. It's fair to let people recognize the man behind the words. This is what I wrote:

JFC - It's always enlightening to hear your thoughts especially in critical moments. And you never shy from taking action also putting your money where your mouth is. Does that mean you deserve it? I don't think. It was just a bad call that I wish just cost you only free Caps' point. Also, I don't believe wishing others ill fate (while they not only meant no harm to you but also try to help) will pave you a smooth way to happiness.

Hope this find you well.

....

That was nothing comparing to your immature behaviour and cheap shoots you took and still willing to take against me and others in every chance you have. Don't you like some of your medicine served to you? I don't go and criticize people as you have knack to. So please, stop playing victim. Live and let live. I will consider the subject close from here.

PS. Thanks Alex but please I will ask you to never defend me again (As I always urged you all). This is what I end up doing wasting my time in futile affairs. I did this just for you. If you didn't start it, I wouldn't go through it.  

GoodVibe

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#8) On May 30, 2009 at 6:37 PM, Alex1963 (28.36) wrote:

GoodVibe4Ever

You're right. You've asked me before and I said I'd stop. I will. I get frustrated and impatient with all the ill will on Caps and sometimes still speak up. I'm getting better tho in that I'm avoiding heated exchanges. I do think JF did make an admirable statement with "I may have deserved it afterall" That showed maturity in my book and conciliation, for what my take is worth anyway. Obviously I don't have all the facts and this is between you two. But to be true to my comments to others, I respectfully have to point out to you that as much as I like you and you're overall demeanor on Caps especially with the barrage of really mean comments you get, comparing scores is still IMO pointless and inflammatory in 99% of cases That is more appropos of some here who I do not associate with your generally karmic and laudable approach. Please, don't feel you need to explain, tho. If you felt this was defensible that is good enough for me. 

Best to you as always! Still a big fan and again I apologize for butting in.

Jesus,

Best to you as well & I'll butt out & let you two sort out anything that you guys feel needs sorting.

Alex 

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#9) On May 30, 2009 at 9:39 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.81) wrote:

comparing scores is still IMO pointless and inflammatory in 99% of cases

My point exactly.  CAPS is a game...

GVB - I don't remember attacking your personally a few months ago.  If I did, I apologize.  I do disbelieve in TA to trade by.  I prefer to trade via fundies and pay a little attention to TA.  Fundies in the long run I can 'control' because eventually it wins out over TA.  Truce.  Last comment on this subject from me.  We just differ in our investment strategies.

Have any thoughts on the asset allocation I discussed in this blog?

JFC

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