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alstry (35.13)

Alstry is NOT a Perma Bear

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April 17, 2009 – Comments (12)

He just has a lot of formal training in Law, Psychology, Finance, Accounting, and Economics and most importantly, a lot of PRACTICAL Common Sense, and therefore is able to see reality a lot clearer than most.

At this point, due to very heavy debt loads and evaporating revenues...almost every major health system, school district, city, county, and state is effectively bankrupt or rapidly approaching bankruptcy.  Going down that same line of logic, so are most businesses and individuals if you were going to subtract liabilities.....and now that millions are losing their jobs and cashflow is drying up, the race to insolvency is speeding up.

If you think about it from a distance, the problem is really not too difficult to understand.  When you infect an entire economy with too much debt, you must either restructure the debt or somehow relieve the debt burden from the entity.  If you policy is to only give money to the pushers of debt, you are certain that the debt junkies will soon run out of money because there is simply not enough money collectively to pay back the debt to the pushers. 

IT IS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD...

But based on my calculations, if we continue down the current path, simply the bankrupting of 70-90% of every American citizen, business, hospital system, school system, city, county, and state.  My figures are subject to error +/- 10%.

At the end of the process, the banks will own most everything and millions of Americans will be unemployed.....again that is not the end of the world.....if you prepare.

 

 

 

12 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 17, 2009 at 11:27 AM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

Not to appear ignorant, but minus the bankrupting of every American citizen, aren't we pretty much where you have stated we would end up?  The banks pretty much own everything, state governments might as well be looking at bankruptcy for all of the major budget deficits we've read about which trickle down to impacting health, schools, county and city.  Unemployment figures are staggering with better than 6 million unemployed (not even throwing in the whole U3 vs U6 argument).  

 It may not be the end of the world, but what exactly do you mean by "...if you prepare."  What can be done to prepare?  Buy weapons?  Start hoarding food?  What grim future do you predict for us?  Complete and total societal breakdown similar to those portrayed in films like the Mad Max movies of old?  Just trying to figure out what you are trying to communicate as you have been very consistent in your message that things are bad and are not getting better...

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#2) On April 17, 2009 at 11:40 AM, alstry (35.13) wrote:

As you may know by now, I am not big on the survival stuff.  I could be wrong, but my logic is if we get to a Mad Max scenario, then guns and provisions will likely be useless and moreover I am not sure I would want to be drinking bloody's in that kind of environment.

The core 3 Alstrynommic PREPARE steps are:

1.  Raise Cash

2.  Pay off Debt

3.  Maybe buy a little metal...

After that have a blast.  Party hard, play with your family, and and keep whatever faith makes you happy that doesn't screw anyone else.

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#3) On April 17, 2009 at 12:03 PM, RonChapmanJr (92.56) wrote:

I would recommend buying guns, ammo, food, and reading information on survival.  If you don't need all the food, give it away and having too much knowledge shouldn't hurt anyone too much.  :) 

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

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#4) On April 17, 2009 at 12:08 PM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

Got it.  Am new to Alstrynommics, but learning quickly.  I enjoy your blogs and while sometimes your messages are repetitive, they do show some uncanny insight.  Thank you for enlightening this novice on your "prepare" ideas.

Seems I am on the right path in that regard...am putting more aside for savings (raise cash...check), am paying down my debt as quickly as I can given salary limitations and my attempts to raise cash (pay off debt...in work...so, check)...own stock in a couple of mines (does that count as buying a little metal?  Call it a pseudo check).  Beyond that, am playing as hard with my family as I can and keeping my faith and only screwing...well lets keep this kid friendly, shall we. 

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#5) On April 17, 2009 at 12:10 PM, alstry (35.13) wrote:

Ron,

I am not saying you are wrong....just not quantitatively the direction Alstrynomics wants to head....

But if things do get difficult, I am coming over to your place for help:)

I'll bring the booze.

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#6) On April 17, 2009 at 12:25 PM, jddubya (30.18) wrote:

Help me understand - raising cash and paying off debt will be a difficult balancing act.  And with an upcoming loss of employment why would I want to pay off debt? 

It seems to me that I'll be the sucker holding the bag of s*** created by all of the others that cannot pay off their debt.  Specifically I'm referring to my mortgage.

 Broke and no debt?  I'm not sure I like that scenario.  As distasteful as it may be I'm thinking along the lines of letting the house go and keeping the years worth of living expenses so that I can, well, live.  The one glimmer of hope could be that the bank will eventually work with me.  The biggest stressbuster for me that just occurred this last week is that I have ceased to care about what happens with my mortgage.  If I'm working, I'll pay it.  If I'm unemployed, I don't care!

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#7) On April 17, 2009 at 12:58 PM, Varchild2008 (83.61) wrote:

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#8) On April 17, 2009 at 1:34 PM, alstry (35.13) wrote:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Airline stocks were trading down Friday following industry data that showed March passenger revenue in the U.S. plunged 23% from a year ago.

Do I make my debt payment or do I fly on a plane????

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#9) On April 17, 2009 at 2:03 PM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

You could be one of the lucky ones who has a job in the flying business and do both...fly and make your debt payment...of course that requires you to still have a job in the flying business after they go into the next round of cost saving job cuts...

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#10) On April 17, 2009 at 4:01 PM, leo744 (< 20) wrote:

Well I guress I'm one of theose lucky ones "who has a job in the flying business" but I'm not taking any chances, I'm "preparing by owning several guns, stock piling food for several months, having a little bit of metal on hand, but I'm a little short in the beer department....Alstry when you come over don't forget to bring some beer!

Also FYI Alstry is a pretty good shot with a Ruger, a damn natural!!

When it's all over and the dust has settled remember we're all on the same team! 

 

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#11) On April 17, 2009 at 4:13 PM, AndreylikesMTL (98.55) wrote:

Too bad, even nobody like me can beat you in Caps.

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#12) On April 18, 2009 at 10:30 AM, Varchild2008 (83.61) wrote:

I have loads of professional training in identifying perma bears...

The market is now up almost 2,000 points and you still have over 5 pages of underperforms and your outperforms are outperforming Triple BEAR etfs.

Your score has knocked you down below 5,000 caps points and there's seriously no end in sight to how your caps score will go...even to the point where you aren't even an All Star anymore.

What BLOG articles will you write when you are

ALSTRY   < 20
?

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