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alstry (35.70)

Alstry making DEPRESSION call

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February 05, 2009 – Comments (36)

Actually THE GREATEST DEPRESSION call.

From almost every metric, the Depression we are likely to enter will be WORSE than the one our nation faced in the thirties.  Higher unemployment.  More bankruptcies.  Greater distress.  At this point, based on the current trajectory...I have little doubt we are heading in that direction.

Asset prices...homes, commercial real estate, vacation properties ect....are likely to drop 50-80%.

Unemployment, as measured by any reasonable definition will likely to exceed 30%.

Somewhere around 3/4 of all publicly traded companies and/or private businesses will likely go bankrupt.

The consequences to America and Americans will be much harsher this time, in relative terms, because in the thirties we were an ascending economy with little leverage and now we are a decending economy that is highly leveraged.

The pain will be spread around the world, but the relative pain will be the Greatest in our country...assuming you are in America.  There will be tremendous opportunities available for those able to navigate through the strom.  TMF potentially could become one of the most important cites on the web if it chooses to inform its readers with relevant information.

This is just my call.....whether it happens or not is ripe with uncertainty....unless of course you are a believer in Alstrynomics.

PS...please don't tell Sinchi....but I might be changing my views on gold.......I don't want him to get too excited.

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 05, 2009 at 8:50 AM, DaretothREdux (44.98) wrote:

Someone already beat you to the depression call.

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#2) On February 05, 2009 at 8:58 AM, redneckdemon (< 20) wrote:

"PS...please don't tell Sinchi....but I might be changing my views on gold.......I don't want him to get too excited."

 Oh, that can't be good...

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#3) On February 05, 2009 at 9:00 AM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

There are a few ways that we can ensure America goes in to recession;

1/. Introduce protectionist measures. "Buy" American, and isolate the the rest of the world with trade tarrifs, discouraging world investment.

2/, Allow banks to fail, create a run on cash, create more fear, and worst of all, allow a string of CDSs to actualise and blow the whole thing up.

3/. Continue to allow a system that does not allow for PRUDENT regulation to ensure that corporate greed is never allowed to threaten (or allow) the 1930's again.

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#4) On February 05, 2009 at 9:04 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Remember, to be a depression, the generally accepted defination is a drop in GDP of 10% peak to trough.....I think we may go much further than that this time around.

U.S. continuing jobless claims up 20,000 to record 4.79 mln

U.S. jobless claims at highest level since Oct. 1982

People spend LESS when they are not working......

[JCP] JCPenney January same-store sales down 16.4%

[SKS] Saks January same-store sales fall 23.7%

[KSS] Kohl's January same-store sales fall 13.4%

Nordstrom same-store sales down 11.4% in Jan.

Abercrombie & Fitch Jan. same-store sales drop 20%

American Eagle Outfitters same-store sales dive 22% in Jan.

Gap Inc.'s same-store sales down 23% in January

[DDS] Dillard's January same-store sales down 12%

Do you think any of the above retailers were discounting in January?????  You would think, based on the kind of discounting I have been noticing....sales would have skyrocketed.

The next BIG crash will be commercial real estate.  It will DESTROY regional banks around the country.  Between job layoffs, crashing real estate prices, and declining corporate earnings...tax revenues are continuing to evaporate much faster than governments can cut expenses.....this will be a major issue as we head into summer....

Aside from DWOT....it is not a lot of fun providing a detailed assessment of the declining state of the economy.....you may expect Nouriel Roubini and others to follow Alstrynomics in this call in upcoming weeks.....but not until Alstry's score in CAPs is OVER 7500.

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#5) On February 05, 2009 at 9:09 AM, rofgile (99.10) wrote:

Alstry,

  This isn't even looking like the worst RECESSION, and is hardly a depression yet.  If you look at the changes in growth in previous recessions (here) - you can see that it is right in the middle of past recessions for change in growth.

  Job losses have been bad, but lets see what the next two months - I would bet that the #'s of job losses decrease in each of the next two months.  If the job loss rate increases - we will be truly in the most terrible recession - borderline depression.  If the job loss rate decreases, then I think we saw the market bottom in November, and the economy will start recovery by end of 2009.

  Anyways, there is nothing to fear but fear itself.  Mankind is on a path of continued growth and development - a recession is just a blip on the path to increased world peace, increased health care, increased democracy/transparency, and increased freedom in time.  Go for a walk, get outside and enjoy the sunlight - look around and enjoy those you are with.  

 -Rof 

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#6) On February 05, 2009 at 9:22 AM, drummnutt (< 20) wrote:

rifgile, your hyperlink didn't work!

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#7) On February 05, 2009 at 9:38 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Alstry NEVER fears...simply prepares and scored points:)

I have already gone for a walk, dropped the kids off at school, am getting ready to take a class to maintain my license, spoke to two of my close friends, and the rest of the stuff is none of your business.

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#8) On February 05, 2009 at 9:46 AM, rofgile (99.10) wrote:

Sorry, I am still getting the hang of the "link" in the blogs, some times when I create one it just doesn't work.

 Try here:

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/01/comparing-recessions.html 

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#9) On February 05, 2009 at 10:01 AM, EHoyle80 (< 20) wrote:

Certainly retailer's reported figures are one way of seeing just how bad the economy is, but how about looking at the problems professional sports are also having. Citing Citigroup Inc.’s uncertainty over whether to continue a $400-million marketing deal with the New York Mets, the Stock Research Portal Blog (SRPB) wonders if this could indicate the beginning of the end of corporate America’s long love affair with professional sports. The blog post argues that sports tickets have become so expensive that they will shortly be seen as unjustifiable expenses in the current economic climate and that U.S. companies will be loath to take on new ventures considering how many long-term sponsorship deals they are already locked into. If the union between business and sports does break up, SRPB concludes it is “a further indicator of broad economic weakness.”

Via Stock Research Portal

What do you think about this?

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#10) On February 05, 2009 at 11:03 AM, djemonk (< 20) wrote:

I see you've abandoned the pretense of "my blog is not all about gloom and doom".

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#11) On February 05, 2009 at 11:12 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

dj,

My blog is about scoring points....and setting the foundation to score even more points.

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#12) On February 05, 2009 at 11:18 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Pay attention folks...things are heating up really fast.....

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Volcker has grown increasingly frustrated over delays in setting up the economic advisory group President Barack Obama picked the former Federal Reserve chairman to lead, people familiar with the matter said.

Volcker, 81, blames Obama’s National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers for slowing down the effort to organize the panel of outside advisers, the people said. Summers isn’t regularly inviting Volcker to White House meetings and hasn’t shown interest in collaborating on policy or sharing potential solutions to the economic crisis, they said.

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#13) On February 05, 2009 at 11:44 AM, briyan (31.55) wrote:

Alstry I know you are like me in that you are always hoping to learn something new every day.   Today, I am here to tell you that the proper saying is actually "rife with uncertainty" rather than "ripe".

Also, I agree with your assessment.   

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#14) On February 05, 2009 at 11:55 AM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

I guess "rife" too:)

 

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#15) On February 05, 2009 at 12:04 PM, Seano67 (55.52) wrote:

dj,

My blog is about scoring points....and setting the foundation to score even more points.

 

Really? I thought your blog was all about helping others get through these troubled times through the power of Alstrynomics. But now it's just to generate points within a meaningless stock picking game?

 

I'm disappointed, Alstry. I though you had a higher purpose than that. Oh well....

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#16) On February 05, 2009 at 12:16 PM, socialconscious wrote:

I somewhat argee with Harry Dent,  Alstry and  DaretothREdux .I think its ia 60-70 % possibility. I posed the question on 1/18/09 in my blog using economist Harry Dent as a source.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=130216&t=01001154058673654380

In simple terms the Great Depression occured because of overspeculation and NO SEC.  We just had overspeculation and NO SEC. There are some who blame Smoot Hawleys tariff increases on already high tariffs at the time. Protectionism  may worsen things NOW but in the 1920-30's... imports in 1929 were only 4.2% of the United States' GNP and exports were only 5.0... From Wikpedia..... According to the U.S. Statistical Abstract, the effective tariff rate was 13.5% in 1929 and 19.8% in 1933 with 63% of all imports being duty-free. From 1821 through 1900 the United States averaged 29.7% effective tariff rates and peaked in 1830 at 57.3% with only 8% of all imports being duty-free, dwarfing the Smoot-Hawley ra

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#17) On February 05, 2009 at 12:31 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Really? I thought your blog was all about helping others get through these troubled times through the power of Alstrynomics. But now it's just to generate points within a meaningless stock picking game?

Please don't be disappointed....the way to get through these troubled times is score as many points as possible.  Whether you choose to take CAPs lessons and apply them in real life is up to you......for Alstry....there are probably few who have taken the lessons and information provided by some very knowledgable players CAPs and applied them practically.

I hope you and others can do the same.....after all....CAPS is all about investors helping investors.....and some of you guys have helped me a lot....for that I thank you all collectively.....even if some of you are really only one......having once volunteered in a psychiatric hospital to get an A in a college class...I have learned to compensate for such disorders.

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#18) On February 05, 2009 at 12:35 PM, socialconscious wrote:

I will say that I may disagree with you guys alot but you do help me.I like to hear different voices. On the lighter side check out predaking's investment parables they are hilarious and true

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=141017&t=01009629168454914691#commentsForm

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#19) On February 05, 2009 at 12:44 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

I am burying this deep in the comments section because my thoughts on the subject are very dynamic right now with regard to my outlook for gold.

To sum it up quickly, if you are buying gold as a hedge against inflation......my suggestion is spend your money some place else.......but if you are buying gold as a hedge against a social and economic breakdown and you are not sure what if anything will have any value......then buy away....heck any guess in that environment is as good as any other.

In other words, gold right now is a very emotional play with a bias on the up side from my perspective......further we could see an explosive break out of gold on the upside depending on how far things go........

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#20) On February 05, 2009 at 12:51 PM, Slipswitch (< 20) wrote:

Isn't this different than the Great Depression in that the gov't cut the money supply then, vs. increasing it now?  I see parallels and hard times, but I don't understand why this will rival the Depression. 

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#21) On February 05, 2009 at 1:14 PM, TMFCrocoStimpy (93.64) wrote:

I've taken Alstrynomics to heart and begun to prepare: stockpiled tuna, cleaned and tested the firearms, bought a case of dental floss, and most importantly prioritized the desirability of my neighbors for cannibalism.  Since my cholesteral medication probably will no longer be available, I'm targeting the leaner ones first, though they will be harder to catch (will have to bait the trap with some Adidas and Gatorade)

:) 

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#22) On February 05, 2009 at 1:34 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.61) wrote:

To sum it up quickly, if you are buying gold as a hedge against inflation......my suggestion is spend your money some place else.......but if you are buying gold as a hedge against a social and economic breakdown and you are not sure what if anything will have any value......then buy away....heck any guess in that environment is as good as any other.

Dude - you are waaaaaaay late in this assessment.  Us gold bugs have been saying for months that Gold is not JUST a hedge against inflation.  Glad to see you are waking up to other realities...

JFC

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#23) On February 05, 2009 at 1:58 PM, angusthermopylae (41.33) wrote:

TMFCrocoStimpy,

Might I suggest stocking up on spices and meat tenderizer?  Some of those skinny little buggers are probably going to be tough.

Another idea is to take out one of the big ones early.  Making lye soap is not that hard (after all, after a day of fighting off the hungry hordes of starving New Yorkers, you might want to clean up), and it could become a source of additional income!

What can I say, I'm just an optimist at heart!

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#24) On February 05, 2009 at 2:10 PM, AndreylikesMTL (98.15) wrote:

Alstry.

You are not only looser, (lost millions, like you said before)

You are a lot worse, you are a quitter.

Completely gave up on this market, the Country, and trying as hard as you can

To convince others to give up.

Why don’t you take your prophecies and stick them up somewhere.

Andrey Report this comment
#25) On February 05, 2009 at 2:33 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Andrey,

Alstrynomics is many things to many people, but quitting it is not.  Practicioners of Alstrynomics are patriots,,,,they love America, its Constitution,  and know what America needs to get better.  No heritics here.  As a matter of fact, practicioners of Alstrynomics are on a constant pursuit to improve.....whenever and whereever they can.

Since none of us have ever taken our IQ's, we assume that we need any help we can get in that department.  As far as our academic pedigrees, most of us are so far removed from graduating that if you have to ask...you havn't accomplished enough in the practical world to be part of the group.

Most of us are terrible writers...math comes much easier to us.  For the most part, we are a pretty optimistic group except for the current diagnosis of the state of our Economy. 

America is on a path to getting better...I think.  But the path will be a painful one...........just like a person with a cancer that has spread throughout their body.......going through chemo is not fun....but a life in remission is something to look forward to.....

On this blog....Alstry is just warning those about what is to come.....just like he was warning last year.......along with a bunch of other very competent CAPs players.

Right now I am thinking of having the first annual CAPS Alstrynomics gettogetherbashorama someplace fun...not sure where or when...but hopefully sometime this late Spring...close to a bar and a pool/and or the ocean.....and if you are female...the better looking you are...the more we encourage your attendance....

 

 

 

 

 

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#26) On February 05, 2009 at 2:33 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Andrey,

Alstrynomics is many things to many people, but quitting it is not.  Practicioners of Alstrynomics are patriots,,,,they love America, its Constitution,  and know what America needs to get better.  No heritics here.  As a matter of fact, practicioners of Alstrynomics are on a constant pursuit to improve.....whenever and whereever they can.

Since none of us have ever taken our IQ's, we assume that we need any help we can get in that department.  As far as our academic pedigrees, most of us are so far removed from graduating that if you have to ask...you havn't accomplished enough in the practical world to be part of the group.

Most of us are terrible writers...math comes much easier to us.  For the most part, we are a pretty optimistic group except for the current diagnosis of the state of our Economy. 

America is on a path to getting better...I think.  But the path will be a painful one...........just like a person with a cancer that has spread throughout their body.......going through chemo is not fun....but a life in remission is something to look forward to.....

On this blog....Alstry is just warning those about what is to come.....just like he was warning last year.......along with a bunch of other very competent CAPs players.

Right now I am thinking of having the first annual CAPS Alstrynomics gettogetherbashorama someplace fun...not sure where or when...but hopefully sometime this late Spring...close to a bar and a pool/and or the ocean.....and if you are female...the better looking you are...the more we encourage your attendance....

 

 

 

 

 

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#27) On February 05, 2009 at 2:55 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.61) wrote:

Andrey,

Dude, you are way off base.  It is our GOVT that has failed this country - both sides of the aisle.  We are just a few poor CAPS users trying to figure out how to salvage a bit of what we have earned before the GOVT takes the rest of it away from us.

Alstry is helping keep us informed and it is up to us to figure out WHAT to do.

If you want a cheerleader, go to your local high school and watch a basketball game.  If you want the truth, stick around.  If you don't want the truth,  just keep listenting to the mainstream media...

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#28) On February 05, 2009 at 2:58 PM, AndreylikesMTL (98.15) wrote:

“America is on a path to getting better...I think. “

That’s better Alstry,

not all doom and gloom any more…

As far as not being part of some group, I am not too worried about that.Plus close to the bar???  I had never had a drink in my life, no thanks.

And on the accomplishments, Father of 6, Married to the my only woman for 24 years, 

I do not like prophets, and people that say they KNOW the future BS.

It is coincidence, Predict where market will be in one week?Andrey

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#29) On February 05, 2009 at 3:09 PM, AndreylikesMTL (98.15) wrote:

Jesus

Use your head

Listening to some false prophet will make things a lot worse.Remember Y2K? Some people did the same crap, stockpiled food, and generators.But sky did not fall,Andrey

 

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#30) On February 05, 2009 at 3:29 PM, saunafool (98.66) wrote:

Volcker, 81, blames Obama’s National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers for slowing down the effort to organize the panel of outside advisers, the people said. Summers isn’t regularly inviting Volcker to White House meetings and hasn’t shown interest in collaborating on policy or sharing potential solutions to the economic crisis, they said.

Everything I've ever read about Summers says he's an A-H0LE

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#31) On February 05, 2009 at 4:05 PM, alstry (35.70) wrote:

Andrey,

It is clear that you have a weak character and are very impressionable.  If you have read my blogs you would know that I have never said that America is doomed....as a matter of fact I am one of the few saying the dollar will get STRONGER.

All I am saying is that America is facing some serious pain....that's all...no more and no less....and that people should be prepared for the upcoming pain.  It really is not that big a deal if you are prepared for what we are about to face.

As far as the wife and kids....nice work.  Alstrynomics loves the process of trying to procreate and add to the population....the outcome can sometines be a bit taxing...but overall a great return on investment.

As far as not having a drink in your entire life....you have no clue on what you are missing out on....especially a good bloody on the beach with a few good friends and a quality cigar....but in no way I am making fun of you or your decision....it is just not for me.

And as far as calling me a prophet....are you sure you are not drinking??

 

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#32) On February 05, 2009 at 4:58 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.61) wrote:

Andre,

If you read and believe everything Alsry or any blogger says without taking it with a grain of salt, then you are a fool.  I presume you don't and neither to do I.  To say that Alstry's posts have no value is inappropriate since he does find some nuggets.  Albeit, at times he is over the top.  Just use it as another data point and make the best decision you can.  If you think he is a complete NUT, I'd recommend not reading his blogs.  As for posting to SAVE the rest of us from Alstry's rants, don't bother.  We are all big boys.

Personal attacks do nothing to make you credible in your postings.

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#33) On February 05, 2009 at 5:25 PM, AndreylikesMTL (98.15) wrote:

“Alstrynomics loves the process of trying to procreate and add to the population....the outcome can sometimes be a bit taxing...”

 Somebody will need to pay taxes, when you, and your guy friends retire.

And this is a HUGE accomplishment to say… get ready, …get prepared, …there will be pain,

Any way, thanks for replying, until today you have ignored me, whatever your real name is.

Cheers

Andrey

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#34) On February 05, 2009 at 7:48 PM, AndreylikesMTL (98.15) wrote:

Jesus, Alstry.

I am sorry if I was out of line.

Andrey

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#35) On February 05, 2009 at 8:08 PM, jesusfreakinco (29.61) wrote:

No worries, man.  We are all here trying to help each other out. 

Dude - I have to ask you to stop calling me Jesus, though.  That kinda bothers me because I am nothing like him - just a wannabe follower.

Regards,

JFC

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#36) On February 06, 2009 at 12:54 AM, jstegma (29.94) wrote:

Let's just make the real call here and be done with it - It's THE APOCALYPSE.  No living thing on earth will survive this financial meltdown. 

Now that we have that out of the way, let's get back to investing, shall we?

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