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alstry (35.42)

Alstry Sucks!!!!!!

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July 08, 2009 – Comments (15)

I have noticed that everytime someone makes a negative blog about Alstry, Alstrynomics, The Institute of Alstrynomics, or Alstrydomous.......they get a huge number of recommendations.  So I thought I would throw this title out to see if it can work for Alstry too.

As many of you know, Alstry does not blog for recommendations, but rather for being RIGHT....

A while back, The Institute of Alstrynomics called a hard top on the DOW at 8300.  As was stated at the time, a hard top call has a 10% margin of error.  Although the market moved above the 8300 level, as many were smoking green shoots, it stayed within the 10% margin.  Today, the DOW is well below 8300 and on a trajectory the Institute believes to the mid 5000's if we maintain the current Zombulation policies of the Federal Rerserve led by Benny B and his Banker Buddies.

Our nation is broke.  Our government is spending money we don't have and fewer and fewer will be able to finance the rapidly growing need for funds.  Now government IOUs are being issued with little liklihood of ever being paid back as tax receipts evaporate.  

Banks are repackaging debt for the second and third round after the first few rounds failed just to fleece the sheep one extra time.  And the Fed and SEC are seemingly cheering on this behavior????

Soon, President Obama, practically every governor, and most mayors will have to tax citizens not only 100% of their income, but 100% of their net worth just to keep this Ponzi scheme going and government's doors open. 

There is not much time to 9.09.....can you hear the chime??????

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 08, 2009 at 12:18 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

Rec'd for title ;)

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#2) On July 08, 2009 at 12:39 PM, kaskoosek (58.06) wrote:

"Soon, President Obama, practically every governor, and most mayors will have to tax citizens not only 100% of their income, but 100% of their net worth just to keep this Ponzi scheme going and government's doors open."

 

Only when there is a huge risk on the dollar would such a senario be possible. Otherwise they would continue spending money they do not have. 

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#3) On July 08, 2009 at 12:53 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

Hummusman,

Do  you really think your buddy Nassim can out Swan Alstry.....remember,  Alstrynomics deals with orange Swans.....the Swans that don't even exist yet vs. black swans which exist, but are not widely known.

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#4) On July 08, 2009 at 1:10 PM, cthomas1017 (94.58) wrote:

+1 Rec.  I love you, man, but can't resist the opportunity to promote the fact that you suck.  (I'm basing this solely on your posting that Naomi Wolf video.  Such a waste of X chromosomes.)  Please stick to your 9.09 posts!

:p ;) :o

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#5) On July 08, 2009 at 1:17 PM, ikkyu2 (99.15) wrote:

What is 9.09 now, is this a prediction that we're going to see Dow 5000 in September 09?

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#6) On July 08, 2009 at 1:47 PM, outoffocus (23.08) wrote:

I have to admin your title and explanation made me chuckle. +1 rec for having a sense of humor.

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#7) On July 08, 2009 at 2:00 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

I hate to be the one who outdid the professor, but I called the top within a day, actually within about 5 trading hours of it's top.  Looking for Investment Advice?  Pay attention to this most worthy "Ship of Fools".  You could do alot worse out there, you know, watching TV.

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#8) On July 08, 2009 at 3:27 PM, alstry (35.42) wrote:

Not only does Alstry Suck....but so does the Country Club business as America keeps shutting down.......

 Bonita Bay Group offers terms for members to take over golf clubs

By Naples Daily News staff report

It may not be the Fourth of July yet but fireworks are flying in Bonita
Bay Group’s communities.

The developer has started to deliver “term sheets,” which explain what
it may take for its golf members to own their clubs.

At least two communities have received buy-out terms from the
cash-strapped developer — Mediterra in North Naples and Shadow Wood in
Estero.

In both cases, Bonita Bay is asking members to put up cash in addition
to what they’ve already paid in deposits and dues. They’re also being
asked to assume all of the developer’s liabilities, including deposits
owed to resigning members.

If members finance their purchase, the price tag for Mediterra’s club
would be $8 million. Shadow Wood members would pay $6 million for their
club.

“In the event the purchase is paid in cash, without financing from
company lenders, a reduced purchase price will20be considered,” the term
sheets say.

The developer is looking to turn over its golf clubs quickly as it
fights to avoid bankruptcy.

More than a few members are scoffing at the developer’s offers, saying
they’re unreasonable, especially if they have to accept the liabilities
involving deposits.

“I haven’t heard anyone yet that said they thought it was any good,”
said Michael Lissack, a Mediterra resident. “I haven’t even heard anyone
suggest that it’s a starting point.”

His own poll found at least 184 members out of 358 won’t agree to the offer.

At one time, Bonita Bay had a 30-day refund policy for deposits when
members resigned. The developer stopped the policy abruptly last year
after seeing a surge of resignations.

Deposits collected from 8,000 members at its seven clubs are estimated
at $225 million.

At Mediterra about 60 members have resigned who didn’t get their
deposits back, Lissack said. At $185,000 a piece,
that’s a liability of more than $11 million — on top of the asking price
of $8 million.

“Those people are going to want their money,” Lissack said of the
resigning members. “Now the membership is going to have
to give it to them.”

The deposit money collected by the developer is gone. Members aren’t
sure where it all went.

Bonita Bay Group owes its le nders, led by Key Bank, more than $100
million. The clubs are pledged as collateral.

Members of Shadow Wood’s Advisory Board expressed doubt that members
would accept Bonita Bay Group’s offer in a letter to

neighborhood representatives on July 1. A member survey found they were
reluctant to pay any cash and the offer is higher

than one the developer made when Shadow Wood members pushed to buy their
club a few months ago after services were cut.

“They made an offer to us before for $2 million. And now it’s up to $6
million. So it’s a little bit of a head scratcher. I thought that was
kind of strange,” said Mike Kozlow, a resident and golf club member at
Shadow Wood in The Brooks.

The offer is based on six times the club’s free cash flow, he said.

“But they haven’t spent any money at the club. So it’s not real,” Kozlow
said.

The offers came through Tim Boates, Bonita Bay’s restructuring officer
with RAS Management Advisors LLC. Boates has been unavailable for comment.

“Hopefully, Boates negotiates,” Kozlow said. “This can’t be a take it or
leave it type deal.”

At the bottom of the term sheets are these words in all-capital letters
“subject to material change – for
discussion purposes only.”

Members would prefer to own their own clubs. Bonita Bay has said it=2 0will
look to sell the clubs to outsiders if it can’t reach a suitable
agreement with members.

“I think o ur board is going to work this out and hopefully we can reach
an agreement,” Kozlow said. “Everybody would
like to see something positive happen here and get this behind us.”

Bonita Bay is looking to sell seven golf clubs in all. Some of its
communities did not receive the term sheets they expected on June 30,
including its signature development — Bonita Bay — and Verandah in Fort
Myers.

“I don’t see that we’ve gotten it yet,” said Jeff Jordan, a golf member
and resident at Verandah, on Thursday afternoon.

He said a new board has been elected to handle the negotiations with
Bonita Bay. “At this point, we’re just in kind of a holding pattern.”

At his club there are only about 300 members so there’s not as many
people to share the cost if the offer comes with a hefty
price tag.

“The question is going to be can we afford it? We are a relatively new
club,” Jordan said.

He said services at the club have been cut back more than usual this
summer. That includes the restaurant closing.

Some Bonita Bay communities have seen even bigger cuts in services.

At TwinEagles, the Aerie golf course is shut down. Last week, residents
filed a class-action lawsuit against the developer for breach of
contract, seeking declaratory relief on dues owed, and permission to pay
dues into the court registry — instead of giving the money to the developer.

TwinEagles members are also looking for injunctive relief to prohibit
termination of their membership, which was threatened if they didn’t pay
at least part their quarterly dues by July 1. They want an accounting of
all their membership deposits.

Lissack said he didn’t know whether TwinEagles or Bonita Bay had
received their term sheets yet.

It appears the Bonita Bay Group has collected enough dues from members
to keep at least some of the golf clubs that remain
open operating through July, including the one at Shadow Wood.

Art Herman, a club member and resident at Bonita Bay, hasn’t seen a term
sheet for his community yet. Whatever the offer
is he expects it to be difficult to get agreement between residents, the
developer and its lenders. A turnover committee is “just trying to
salvage the best deal possible, but I cannot see a deal that will make
the extreme anger of the members subside,” he said.

“I fully expect to see a class-action suit,” he said.

Naples real estate broker Ross McIntosh said he doesn’t see any outside
buyers stepping forward to buy any of the clubs if negotiations between
members and the developer fall through.

“How would you like to own a golf course in a community where everyone
was furious at you for having bought the club? You
are at their mercy,” he said.

It would be like jumping into a “hornet’s nest” and the return on the
investment would be questionable because it’s
so costly to operate golf clubs, especially to the standards that Bonita
Bay Group’s residents have come to expect, he said.

In this economy, most clubs have been forced to cut staff and services.
Memberships have been lost — and members who have
stayed are eating less at the club, playing fewer rounds of golf and
spending less in the pro shop.

“It’s a question in my mind on whether you can make a profit,” McIntosh
said. “Every club in Collier County is struggling,
even those clubs that have happy members.”///

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#9) On July 08, 2009 at 3:27 PM, eaenglish10 (26.14) wrote:

You have a NICE senses of humor!

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#10) On July 08, 2009 at 6:32 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@ Alstry

This is why I've taken up 'fishing'.  It is a good way to reconnoiter the place, to get out of the house and into the fresh air, and to see what rawness awaits in our future.  I'm not impressed.  It is nothing I couldn't handle in a heartbeat and would surely create some fun.  They keep missing the point.  Feet vote too. 

If California IOU's end up trading for .22 cents on the dollar in a new subscription of shares, imagine what they will trade at when there's an oversubscription of shares.  Same applies to the dollar, it seems.  * play 'dizzy' *

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#11) On July 09, 2009 at 6:44 AM, dbjella (< 20) wrote:

 bostoncelitcs 

Would you please stop posting auto play videos? 

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#12) On July 09, 2009 at 9:46 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Are Alstry blogs simply the equivalent of KMFDM songs? 

Both constantly reference themselves.

Both are a bit nihilistic.

Both "suck" according to themselves.  

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#13) On July 11, 2009 at 1:07 AM, goldminingXpert (29.45) wrote:

Alstry does suck... in the best possible way. Love you man. Proud to be the 70th rec.

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#14) On July 13, 2009 at 6:45 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Well for only 13 comments and 70+ recs I guess the fools have spoken.  Alstry does pull a vacuum.  And yet Alstry shall not be humbled.  After the first 5 blogs every month he does not recognize that his point has been made.  It gets old.  We get it already.  There's not a single thing anyone can do to prepare for what Alstry foresees happening.  He is not always right, that's just a fact that applies to every single being on the planet.

 He's preaching to the wrong audience (as evidenced by the number of recs to this blog).

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#15) On August 06, 2009 at 11:12 PM, SolarisKing (33.21) wrote:

Alstry rocks. IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT DON'T READ IT.

He averages 50 recs a day or something. If you are mad at alstry you are mad at every person that recs his blog. If he received 0 recs for two weeks he would stop. 

If you have something to say, just post your own blog. Do you not trust your own ability to draw recs/views? 

The next time someone puts one of you you in a similar situation, i hope you have the strength to ignore the flack and say your piece.

God bless america.

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