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alstry (36.34)

ALSTRY WAS WRONG....IT IS A JOB LOSS RECOVERY

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13

September 10, 2009 – Comments (20)

Ask yourself....if we are a very leveraged consumer based economy....and we are eliminating the consumer....what is left?

UBS to close NYC Art Gallery in October 

Bank of America to close Thomaston Branch

Update: 57 Heaven Auto Museum  

Artisan Furniture LTD

Cost Plus World Market Closing Store - 17 job losses result 

Natural Bridge Juvenile Correctional Center to close? 68 Jobs at risk

Jax New Orleans Bistro closed

Sullivan's Metropolitan Grill closing Sat

Monahan Filaments to close Middlebury Plant - 69 layoffs resulting

Ride the Ducks Conducts Last Tour of Baltimore on Labor Day. Shutting down for good??

Victor Valley Museum may close

Uniquely Ohio  Store

GM considers 3 Plant closures in Europe 

3 Portland Restaurants to Close

New Breed Logistics closing Kansas City Office - lays off 53

Wolfgang Puck Express

Update: Dillard's at Desoto Square Mall Closing Nov 3

Denver Library Plans Cut - Closing Byers Branch

Shell Gas Station in Central Lonsdale ( International )

Embarq to close Call Center - 65 job losses

Katie's Pretzels in Carr Mill Mall

Hamann's Variety Store

Konocti Harbor to close in November for how long?? - 700 Layoffs may result

Botetourt Correctional Center closing 

Menasha Utilities Steam Plant Closing Oct 9 - 20 Layoffs 

22 Kmarts and 6 Sears Stores to Close this Fall

Sutton Motors 

Meeker's  Hardware to Close for 5 months

AET closing Terre Haute Facility 

Tremont Goodie Shop

Santa Clara VTA - Bus and Light Rail Cuts / Service Reductions

High Points Coffee closing 3 stores

SGCI Communications closed last Week

Spartech Corp closing Lockport NY Plant

Cessna closing its Bend Oregon Facility 

Bosco Group Home ( International )

Starbucks Located in Upper Marlboro Baptist St Anthony's Health Systems - More Layoffs?

KNX/1070 AM - 6

Central Pennsylvania Community Action - 11

Walker Machinery - 23

Aloca Howmet - 95

Sun Healthcare Group Cuts Jobs

Oakland School District - 86

Arizona State Parks Considers Layoffs

Interpublic - 3,000 Layoffs Might not be Enough

Rumor: AOL layoffs coming?

Philly Mayor Says Major Cuts, Layoffs are Nearing

Stanley Inc ( Morgan Research unit in Orlando ) - 140 Job Cuts possible  

Baystate Franklin Medical Center  - 51

Radford University - Layoffs coming?

St Peters Hospital in Olympia - Cuts Top Jobs  

Eversheds ( International ) - 22

Update: Monsanto's Seed Company - Larger layoffs than expected from 900 to now 1,736

City of Manteca - 54 Layoff Notices

Veyance Technologies - 50

General Motors GM - 1,000

City of Cape Coral - 36 Layoffs?

SPSA - 30

AIG Advisor Group - 40

Jacksonville Florida - Layoffs for Officers possible

Warren County - 2 Attorney layoffs

Update: Hawker Beechcraft's 2009 layoffs top 2,600

Update: 113 Detroit Bus Drivers to be Laid off Sept 26

Georgia Pacific Ireland - 77

Portneuf Medical Center - 40

DHL - Eliminates 560 Jobs in Germany 

McCoy's Building Center - Lays off Workers

MetroSouth Medical Center - 120

Sellafield - 17 

Network Rail Plans more Job Cuts 

Nyfix Inc - 71 Layoffs Coming 4th Quarter 

Pace Airlines Inc - 125 to 215 layoffs

Roll Coaster Inc in Hawesville - 88

BB&T Bank Merger May Lead to Layoffs

Metso ( Finland ) - up to 100 job cuts

Kolpak - 30 Layoffs?

Update: Diageo ( International ) - 10% of Workforce Job cuts

McIntosh Donald ( International ) - 6

Chippewa Falls - Talks 25 layoffs

UPS Drivers in Winston Salem - Changed Routes, possible few layoffs

Heinz Pocatello Facility - 65 

The above compiled at http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/ for just two days of public releases.

20 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 10, 2009 at 2:44 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

I was in Chicago over labor day weekend, and my friend's house is on the north side.  They have retail shops all over the place that are empty.  He said just last year, they were full, its like his neighborhood has transformed.

I went to the Miracle Mile of high end stores and shops like Macy's and Old Navy, there were more sale items than there were regular priced items.

I am seeing the same around the malls around my area in Baltimore.

How about you all?  What are you seeing? 

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#2) On September 10, 2009 at 2:47 PM, alstry (36.34) wrote:

STRONG EVIDENCE OF A JOB LOSS RECOVERY!!!!!!

ATLANTIC CITY -- If the nation's second-largest gambling market was to have a good month this year, August would have been it: The rain finally stopped and visitors flocked to Atlantic City's 11 casinos.

But the dog days of August added up to another dismal month here, as revenue declined 16.3 percent from a year ago.

In a month that is traditionally one of the best for seaside resorts, all 11 casinos reported declines, ranging from 6.9 percent at the Tropicana Casino and Resort, to nearly 30 percent at Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/August-another-doggone-bad-apf-2648659151.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=c373bc8251382767069882f1f761fe06&ccode=mp

Ski resorts cutting prices to lure locals

 

Ski resorts offering special deals to lure locals to the slopes amid stagnant travel market

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ski-resorts-cutting-prices-to-apf-3746033375.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=5a3fc4fb818d156a09dc213fbe3da7bf&ccode=mp

RI gov, unions in talks to avoid state government shutdown, layoff of 1,000 state workers

 

SURE LOOKS LIKE A STRONG RECOVERY FROM THE DATA

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#3) On September 10, 2009 at 2:51 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

does anyone have news of major hirings going on?

If not, the market is way overvalued.  Without jobs, no recovery.  Even with jobs, people are so deeply in debt, their disposable incomes is nil.

Personal wealth has been cut through retirement accounts, home value declines (or loss), credit card/auto/etc debt.

And the gov't compounds the problem by borrowing 2 trillion in one year.  

Yet the market continues to chug chug chug along.

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#4) On September 10, 2009 at 2:54 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

manip manip manip manipulation

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#5) On September 10, 2009 at 2:54 PM, alstry (36.34) wrote:

AND NOW THE BANKS ARE CUTTING OFF CREDIT LINES AND RAISING INTERST RATES AS THEY ARE GETTING BILLIONS IN BONUSES FROM THE TAXPAYER AS MILLIONS OF TAXPAYERS ARE GOING BANKRUPT!!!!!

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#6) On September 10, 2009 at 3:00 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

And let me say it again,

THE MARKET CHUG CHUG CHUGS ALONG.

Has anyone counted the number of days the market has gone down the past, oh say, 8 weeks?  I'm going to say its maybe a handfull.

But lets say its 6 days (half a dozen).   So out of 40 days, 6 have been negative, 34 have been all positive.

Isn't something fishy here?   

Having said that, the market has gone above that 9600 level.  I said that if it broke that, we were on our way to 10,000.  I still believe this.  Bulls have the ball, and have had it since March.  No one can see through the smoke screen.  I don't think people want to see through it though, they are happy their wealth is going up again.  Its all balloons and party tricks until the rug is taken from their feet by the big money managers/bankers/and govt.

Good luck to you all though.  Make that paper while you can!

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#7) On September 10, 2009 at 3:02 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

AHHH here are the jobs!

White House Claims 1 Million Jobs Saved, Created By Stimulus Bill

 

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#8) On September 10, 2009 at 3:11 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

The market keeps chug, chug, chugging along

12 S&P 500 Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs in Session

 

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#9) On September 10, 2009 at 3:28 PM, cthomas1017 (99.00) wrote:

Jason (post #1),
I am amazed at how well the retail operations are staying loaded here in Michigan.  We'd like to thank you for your stimulus dollars!

But seriously, I suppose we were ahead of the fall by a couple of years so the decline in new commercial space cut back a few years ago.  I am noting that the higher end restaurants are doing a lot more "value meals".  (Drink prices are still thru the roof, I am sad to report.)  Was traveling in the resort communities in northern, lower Michigan last week, and I didn't notice any vacancies downtown or in the strip centers.  I chaulk that up to an excellent "stay-cation" campaign run by our tourist agencies.  (Hey, don't laugh.  One area where Michigan state government has done an outstanding job the last twenty years has been in promoting tourism.)

I can report over the last few weeks that Wyoming & Idaho (along I-80) seem to be weathering the ecomony pretty well (from a retail vacancy standpoint, at least.)

 

Jason (post #6),
The key is in watching the VIX.  On those handful of down days, the volume has been up considerably.  As of this afternoon, with the SPX topping 1040, the technical analysis (Elliott Wavers) are predicting a move up to as high as 1200 before a correction.  Can't see how we can maintain the longest bull market since 1933 without some correction, but that seems to be what's happening. 

This isn't a market to be trying to guess the timing of the turn. (Alstry will take heat for calling 09-09 specifically, but there's little arguing the overwhelming direction of the data and anecdotes he presents.)  We're clearly in a speculative period and enthusiasm could drive things much further than any of us cautious bears would have thought.  It's going to be interesting to watch the mass market psychology turn when the correction does come.  I'm tired of making predictions.  I've been wrong since early July.

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#10) On September 10, 2009 at 3:31 PM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Houston is perking along. The unemployment is up some. Business and traffic are still congested.

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#11) On September 10, 2009 at 3:33 PM, alstry (36.34) wrote:

GM GIVING CARS AWAY????

DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Co. says it will allow new car buyers to return their vehicles within 2 months of purchasing them for a full refund if they're not satisfied.

The program is part of a sweeping, new marketing campaign, called "May the Best Car Win."

The automaker says it will help prove that its vehicles are competitive when it comes to quality and performance.

GM will allow customers who purchase a new vehicle between Sept. 14 and Nov. 30 to return it for a refund within 31 to 60 days from the date of purchase.

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#12) On September 10, 2009 at 3:33 PM, alstry (36.34) wrote:

GM GIVING CARS AWAY????

DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Co. says it will allow new car buyers to return their vehicles within 2 months of purchasing them for a full refund if they're not satisfied.

The program is part of a sweeping, new marketing campaign, called "May the Best Car Win."

The automaker says it will help prove that its vehicles are competitive when it comes to quality and performance.

GM will allow customers who purchase a new vehicle between Sept. 14 and Nov. 30 to return it for a refund within 31 to 60 days from the date of purchase.

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#13) On September 10, 2009 at 3:34 PM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

Jason, I love you man... :)    p.s. Have you seen this?

Alstry, have you seen this? Keep up the good work.

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#14) On September 10, 2009 at 3:41 PM, mikecart1 (98.83) wrote:

Alstry is just wrong period hehe.  Recession is over and the economy is recovered!  Obama knows what he is doing IMO.

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#15) On September 10, 2009 at 3:50 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

dragonlz

I hope your wrong, my shorts are being crushed already on the order of 10% lol.

Although I think you may be right.  This market is just nuts right now.

2 month eh?  That scares me cuz I may lose 20-30% before heading back down.  sheesh!  I'm looking for one big correction on the order of 100-200 points, and I'm selling my shorts.  They've lost me almost $3K so far.

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#16) On September 10, 2009 at 3:54 PM, dragonLZ (99.33) wrote:

I like your honesty, Jason. And your spirit. I really do. Good Luck!

p.s. Yes, I said two months, but that was back on Aug. 14... :)

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#17) On September 10, 2009 at 4:02 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

Eh, if i'm wrong, I'm wrong.

This is my first year of investing and what a friggin year its been!  I took my tax return and won 50% since March to 2nd week in Aug.

The first thing I learned is headlines made the day on the market.

If they were rosey, it was going up....negative...well, not so much.

So I started with GOOG, VMW, MSFT..I am a tech guy, I know tech...its my profession.  

I bought some speculatives like AIG and ABK.  Made out LARGE with AIG (god knows how!).  ABK I held until I made about 7-8%.

Now I have nothing but double shorts.  I'm all in baby, rolling the dice on what I foresee is a cataclismic style free fall of the market, even though I'm not that lucky and would be happy with a 10% correction at this point.

But my father always says, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

And boy has the market been irrational or what.  I just don't see it, but then again, I'm a newbie, so wtf do I know :)

 

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#18) On September 10, 2009 at 4:04 PM, DOW4000 (< 20) wrote:

This economy are market will go down BIG, I am now 100% sure of it. When markets go up on low volume, continously... it't the insiders. Alan Farley say, "Follow the insiders during quiet times." But he adds that they lose control of the tape when the masses come in. This enormous rally up with little give-back is sign not a sign of health. Alstry's warnings are spot on! Of course, had you lisdted to him you would have missed 60% returns. But eventually, with S&P at approx. between 1150 and 1250, market will hit a top not to be seen for quite a while. At that time short with impunity. You CANNOT have a jobless recovery, a recovery still so many foresclosures, and with impending swine flu fears that businesses are now saying could cause many employee absences. This does not bode well. There are faaaaar to many headwinds.

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#19) On September 10, 2009 at 4:17 PM, DOW4000 (< 20) wrote:

As a correction to my previous statement about shorting the markets. I might suggest that people scale into shorts because, having lived through several bubbles now, you will never call the very top. But as long as your general direction is correct, you'll be fine. And these markets by close of 2010 will be lower than they are today. So... short... but scale in... but not yet... not yet.... wait until pain reaches max levels. I think that's between 1150-1250.

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#20) On September 10, 2009 at 4:22 PM, jason2713 (< 20) wrote:

DOW4000

Yea I scaled in chunks. Started when the dow was around 9400 and NASDAQ was at 1990.

I'm losing the battle, but I think I'll win the war.  I think I'll take the 15% hit, but ultimately come back to win at least some of it if I don't let emotions get to me.

I've had a pretty steady hand thus far though.  I've committed to this through October (shorting).  I think I'll see the fruits of my shorts by then...if not....dear lord help me. :)

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