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alstry, you say prepare. . . How?

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April 11, 2009 – Comments (44)

Buy gold stocks? Oil stocks? Take possession of real gold?

Stock up on food? Buy food stocks? Buy guns? Move to the country and dig a bomb shelter? Move to China? 

Convert all your paper money to coins?

I'm not teasing. I really want to know what you mean by prepare. I assume that you have some advice for folks who aren't rich?

Dividend stocks? Corporate bonds? All of those take money.

Pull all your cash out of the bank? Buy real goods before your money evaporates?

No need to address each of my points, i was just guessing. Really i wonder what YOU mean.

I REALLY FEEL THAT YOU MAY BE 100% RIGHT. Restaurants will fail, entertainment will fail, ALL DISCRETIONARY SPENDING WILL TAKE A BIG HIT.

There seems to be no way to service a debt that exeeds any other economic numbers existing. If america is forced to default (possible?) all dollars would be worth  . . . . .. more/less?

 

You should put this on your own blog, so you can get the recs  ; )

 

44 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 11, 2009 at 11:53 AM, RonChapmanJr (64.04) wrote:

Buy guns, food and learn survival skills. 

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

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#2) On April 11, 2009 at 12:30 PM, BradAllenton (31.64) wrote:

Alstry always says prepare, but never really how. It's part of his gig. Pay down debt? Why bother? If everything goes to hell, nobody will be keeping track of who owes who. If  (when) the USD goes to potty paper, who cares who has it or not.

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#3) On April 11, 2009 at 12:48 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Let me give you guys a bit of perspective.......

In the end, none of us really KNOW how this will play out.....

It could be inflation or deflation......who knows????  Either course results in a depression which seems like a certainty at this point. 

But whenever in life you are confronted with catastrophic uncontrollable events......the initial steps should be basic prudent steps that work in just about any circumstance.

For example, if you are diagnosed with a serious cancer, there are certain steps you take even though in the end there is uncertainty of efficacy.  Although you are not sure if the steps you take will help, you are certain if you don't take any steps, the outcome will almost certainly be negative.

Paying off debt protects you against deflation and can't hurt you for hyperinflation.

Keeping cash protects you against deflation and is benign if there is hyperinflation. 

Further, if there is hyerinflation, we are all pretty much screwed as people can't afford to eat and pay for much of anything else anyway....especially in an environment where wages are constrained by foreign pressures.

If you want to own some metals, that is fine...but my guess is that the banking system is going to create some kind of digital commodity to replace gold and silver....but there is no way to be sure etither way.

In a certain respect, I have to agree with Ron....hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  However, if the worst actually happens, there is no way to really prepare.....

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#4) On April 11, 2009 at 12:51 PM, SharpSEO (68.38) wrote:

My feeling is that the gov/fed are all-in at this point, no turning back. Bailouts for all. I'm dead serious. They are not going to let pensions, state governments, or debt-bloated public companies and consumers fail.

That means the dollar will be dead eventually, who knows when. So protect yourself against hyperinflation. Gold, silver (physical bullion preferrably) are good.

I hate to say this, but maybe a house? If big-time inflation happens, your debt will shrink to a fraction of what it was in real terms. If you're still earning a decent living in hyper-flated salary, you're good to go. If you can't beat'em....

I'm more extreme than most, and have stockpiled some food, water filters, first aid stuff, etc. Prepare for the worst. If it doesn't happen, awesome. If it does, you'll be very very very very glad you did.

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#5) On April 11, 2009 at 12:55 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Sharp,

Your opinion is as good as the next....it is just that I don't see any current evidence of your perspective.

If we do have hyperinflation....do you think your income will permit you to afford bread plus water and your mortgage payment at the same time????

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#6) On April 11, 2009 at 12:59 PM, SharpSEO (68.38) wrote:

Alstry - didn't see yer reply before I posted, overlapped a little. Anyways, I have to disagree with this point:

"Keeping cash protects you against deflation and is benign if there is hyperinflation."

How is cash benign in hyperinflation? It's worthless is what it is. I read a great article on how various asset-classes performed in Weimar Germany during hyperinflation, lemme see if I can dig it up.

 

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#7) On April 11, 2009 at 1:02 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Sharp,

I am very familiar with post WWl Germany....during a hyperinflationary environment....it doesn't matter how much money you have.....it is worthless.

That said, in such an environment....it doesn't matter what you have.....you don't have enough to buy anything.

Farmers can't afford to farm.  Bakers can't bake.  and so on...

Let's hope our leaders are not that stupid.

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#8) On April 11, 2009 at 1:06 PM, BradAllenton (31.64) wrote:

"if the worst actually happens, there is no way to really prepare"

BINGO!!! so why end every dooms day scenario post with "don't fear prepare"  Your posts  lay out all the things that could spell chaos and then say prepare? 95% of people could NEVER prepare for what you are saying could happen. I would rather you end your posts with something more honest like "if this happens you are F*$Ked and there is nothing most of you can do about it" 

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#9) On April 11, 2009 at 1:06 PM, SharpSEO (68.38) wrote:

"If we do have hyperinflation....do you think your income will permit you to afford bread plus water and your mortgage payment at the same time????"

Yeah, I do. IF hyperinflation happens, people will still get paid, they'll just rush off to spend it ASAP before it's worthless. Maybe it'll just be mega-inflation, not hyper. Who knows, but inflation is coming. I'm convinced of that.

This won't be Zimbabwe-style, more like Weimar Germany.

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#10) On April 11, 2009 at 1:13 PM, SharpSEO (68.38) wrote:

Alstry,

"I am very familiar with post WWl Germany....during a hyperinflationary environment....it doesn't matter how much money you have.....it is worthless."

Money would be worthless, assets would not. In your nightmare scenarios a few nice firearms, barrels of rice, water filters, gold, silver, even building materials/tools, would be worth a heck of a lot more than cash.

 

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#11) On April 11, 2009 at 1:13 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

That latter was worse than the former....check your history.

If you think you wage will keep close to rising expenses in a hyperinflationary environment....you may want to go back and read your history books.

If you got paid a barrel full of money...by the time you ran to the bank......it was worthless.

If we enter into true hyperinflation....we are all dead....just like if you were standing under a 10,000 mega ton enriched uranium explosive device....

But I don't think we are going in that direction....hence...prepare...don't fear.

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#12) On April 11, 2009 at 1:16 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

If you own rice and water and a few guns.....how long do you think that will last against the thousands of starving people standing outside your home????

Do you think any of them would have weapons too???

Some scenarios just shouldn't be contemplated because there is no mathematical solution.

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#13) On April 11, 2009 at 1:20 PM, BradAllenton (31.64) wrote:

There is no way around hyper-inflaton and there is no such thing as real deflation. To me it isn't an "if" at all. We still have inflation as we speak even after all the financial losses. Gas is back near 2$, food is off the chart (the pasta I eat was .89 just 2yrs ago its 1.49 now) health care costs are just palin silly, property taxes are just as silly. Insurance costs, lower? NOPE! overall cost of living lower? NOPE!! Deflation fears are a joke, I would love to see real deflation, but it will NEVER happen. At most we will see inflation slow, but real deflation....not a chance.

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#14) On April 11, 2009 at 1:26 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Brad..you may be right.... 

But for those of you that thought Sean Connery would never return:

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#15) On April 11, 2009 at 1:47 PM, RonChapmanJr (64.04) wrote:

I haven't been sold on the idea yet, but I know some people are just picking what scenario they think will happen and then preparing for that specific one.  The idea is that if you hedge your bets for multiple scenarios you will be unprepared for all of them. 

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#16) On April 11, 2009 at 1:47 PM, SharpSEO (68.38) wrote:

Alstry - Zimbabwe's life expectancy was ~35 years old in 2006. It's certainly worse now:

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/41339.php

Germany was bad, but it was not as chaotic  situation itself wasn't as extreme. Yes, it led to WW2 eventually, but that's a political story. They still had some infrastructure, even after the war, to survive on. I don't think we'll get that bad, just saying our situation is more comparable to Germany than Zimbabwe.

I love your stuff, keep it up.

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#17) On April 11, 2009 at 3:20 PM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

I will buy some Canadian dollars to prepare for a falling USD and hyperinflation, in addition to buying bullion and USO. I am also trying to transfer my assets to another country.

What the US government does, is out of my imagination and understanding (evem though I have been smart enough to get a Ph.D. in science). There is no rule of law, there is no integrity, there is no planning for long term. Everyone feels entitled for everything in US. Is this the world's only superpower? Such a crazy government! Such a under-educated people! (as high as 50%v high school dropout rate in some places)

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#18) On April 11, 2009 at 3:26 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

I like bacon.  Its tasty and goes well with many other dishes including pasta and burgers. 

I'm just going to convert all of my wealth into bacon. 

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#19) On April 11, 2009 at 3:30 PM, minduza (< 20) wrote:

wow, I had no idea that fool.com has so so many believers that things will go down so badly. and I don't see any comments oposing your views. Do most fools agree or just don't wont to be involved in all these talks?

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#20) On April 11, 2009 at 3:51 PM, motleyanimal (81.76) wrote:

minduza, There are enough of us who think this is total nonsense. Doomsday cults have come and gone for many centuries and the only thing left when they did not happen were disapointed followers.

All I know is that when the Mothership returns to save us from ourselves, and we can be certain that they bring us some good tunes.

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#21) On April 11, 2009 at 4:08 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Alstry is the Doctor of Alstrynomics and Alstrynomics only deals with the FACTS:

Real unemployment is over 20% in a number of states including California...the largest state in the Union.

Strip Malls and Shopping Centers are losing tenants at a record pace.

Tax revenues to our Government is evaporating as the deficit is growing parabolicly.

The rate of decelleration of our economy is exceeding the decline in The Great Depression.

Nobody said this is doomsday....just FACTUALLY on track to be The Greatest Depression in History!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Any Fool can see it  now.....even you.

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#22) On April 11, 2009 at 4:25 PM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

All I know is that when the Mothership returns to save us from ourselves, and we can be certain that they bring us some good tunes.

Sometimes the Mothership does not return to save us. There have been so many empires coming and going for the last 3000 years!

I own both bullion and CAD. I believe that bullion will outperform bullion before tax. However, I won't know how much taxed it will be when I sell my bullion years down the road (currently no tax here). That's why CAD and Aussie dollars could outperform bulion.

 

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#23) On April 11, 2009 at 5:37 PM, bostoncelitcs (41.09) wrote:

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#24) On April 11, 2009 at 5:41 PM, motleyanimal (81.76) wrote:

There are many flaws in your arguments, but let me just note the major one. When our government took stakes in the banking system and declared that they are too big to fail, it means that unless the US government itself falls, those institutions are secure. Do you see any signs that the Federal government is failing? Did the government collapse during the 1930s depression? It did not fall then and will not happen now. Neither Socialism or Fascism will absorb our way of life, take your pick, the FOX News people offer both scenarios to the masses.

If you don't know what a Culture of Fear is, here is a primer for you: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_of_fear. Having worked in advertising for 30 years, I'm fairly good at determining when somebody is trying to sell a piece of crap.

 

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#25) On April 11, 2009 at 5:46 PM, SharpSEO (68.38) wrote:

motleyanimal said: "Doomsday cults have come and gone for many centuries and the only thing left when they did not happen were disapointed followers."

Why stop at Doomsday cult? Why not throw some comparisons with Hitler out there... :) Characterizing people who prepare themselves for a worst-case scenario as a "Doomsday Cult" is... I can't say what, without breaking TMF policies.

God forbid people prepare themselves for a possible economic collapse. If you outright dismiss the possibility of a collapse, you're delusional in my opinion. Taking steps to prepare for one is relatively cheap, if you think of it like hedging.

I come across as bearish usually, but I do hedge. Example, I stated here when I recommended and bought MW at $11 ($18.90 now). I'm long and short stocks. Also have cash, some precious metals, food stocks, etc.

For me, it's not about getting rich. It's about preserving what I have.

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#26) On April 11, 2009 at 6:11 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Motley,

Here is the flaw in your logic....if every bank in America is solvent and the rest of the nation is insolvent....where does that leave us...

A bunch of broke citizens and rich bankers.  1870's anyone???

If you really work in advertising......you would know what is currently happening to advertising;)

It is obvious you have little understanding of reality.....and even less of history.....that is OK for now....as I have little doubt reality is about to smack you in the face in the very near future.

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#27) On April 11, 2009 at 6:23 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Keeping a 30 day food supply around isn't a bad idea but the dooms day nonsense is just too much. The tone of your comments haven't changed from the complete lack of a positive story at the March 9th bottom to the present 2003 bottom. I think you just like doom and gloom.

The 30 day food supply isn't because we're about to see the end of life as we knew it but because oil is going up and it'll effect the cost of goods.

Investing is about a detailed plan and it doesn't start and is never influenced by emotion.

We're at the bottom, buy on pullbacks and ignore the stock for a few months and you'll have enough after the capital gains to retire in your cave and chat with shadows about your fears for the rest of your days.

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#28) On April 11, 2009 at 6:33 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

There is nothing doom and gloom about my blogging.  Just the facts.  Alstry is very focused on the facts and only the facts.

It is a fact that unemployment/underemployment is now around 16% nationwide and over 20% in a number of states.

It is a fact that bankers are telling us they are solvent but we taxpayers are giving them trillions of real money while taxpayers are getting kicked out of their homes.

It is a fact that bankruptcies are exploding.

It is a fact that commercial vacancies are increasing at record rates.

It is a fact that asset values are crashing.

It is a fact that revenues are evaporating.

It is a fact that food banks are running out of food.

It is a fact that small businesses, the lifeblood of the American economy, is facing unprecedented hurdles.

It is a fact that governments across the nation are running out of money.

It is a fact that the Federal deficit is now growing at a 400% rate.

Now please explain...what about these facts are so doom and gloom???

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#29) On April 11, 2009 at 7:01 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

I think this level of paranoia is completely silly.  The sky has never fallen on america, for all of our mistakes and errors and folly and all of the turmoil the world around us has seen in our short history, and its not coming down this time either.  We are too optimistic and ambitious of a people, we dream too big, to ever throw in the towel and lie down. 

The caps blogs, on the other hand, can get a bit overrun with negativity at times, which is too bad. 

i really do like bacon, though, ...

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#30) On April 11, 2009 at 7:06 PM, motleyanimal (81.76) wrote:

SharpSEO , there is a big difference between hedging, holding larger cash positions, buying gold or comodities, the defensive actions which most all of us do, and then there are these endless rants that would have us stock up on food and guns. Anyone who plans to stay in the game is protecting capital right now and you are correct to do so..

When bloggers and on a larger scale, mass media, present us with apocalyptic visions, citing every regional bank failure and unemployment figure as confirmation that the end of days is coming, this is no longer a factual presentation. When media broacasts the same message repetitively, even if factual, it is no longer journalism nor objective. It is only propaganda. You then have to look at the underlying motivation. With FOX News, it's all political. In financial circles, you have short sellers, CDS holders, ETFs full of puts, hedge funds and every sort of book writing guru and newsletter prophet. I have books going back to the early 1980s that say nearly the same thing as Peter Schiff and the others. There is nothing new here.

 

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#31) On April 11, 2009 at 7:32 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Actually, there is lots of NEW stuff.

We have NEVER had a $2-3 Trillion dollar Federal deficit.

We NEVER had every municipality face a debt downgrade.

We have NEVER had NEW home sales  fall by over 2/3

We have NEVER had auto sales drop by 50% in a couple years.

We have NEVER handed over $12 Trillion dollars to "save" a "solvent" financial system

We have NEVER had so much of America infected with so much debt it can't pay back

The fact someone has never had Pancreatic Cancer in the past in now way mitigates his or her current diagnosis.  Why is is so difficult for so many to see that it can be different this time????

The logic is so sophmoric.

The fact that the citzens of two Japenese cities had never faced an atomic explosion in now way vitiated or avoided the consequences of when they did.

The fact that the twin towers never fell before did not change what happened on September 11th.

Nobody is saying the end of days is coming, simply mathematically we are facing the WORST economic crisis in U.S. history.

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#32) On April 11, 2009 at 7:51 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

Dude, what are you going to do when the economy starts growing again, the S&P clears 1000, the doom and gloomers stop getting air time, and society focuses on moving on and whatever it invents next? 

Isn't that going to get kind of boring for alstryville? 

And do you understand the nature and function of the tarp funds, of FAS 157, and of why the banks needed capital?  Do you understand that the bulk of their losses (vast bulk in many cases) were on paper and not realized?  Really, I don't doubt that alot of you hyper-bears are smart guys, but you have a tendency to really focus on only the facts that suit your chosen stances. 

Besides, you have nothing to worry about.  By Wednesday I'm going to have 5 metric tons of bacon, a ton of charcoal, a case of lighter fluid and a grill.  So bring on th eend of days, I'll be cooking and eating well and you can just come over here.

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#33) On April 11, 2009 at 8:18 PM, motleyanimal (81.76) wrote:

Alstry, you should read what you just wrote in the context of my last post. You are, at best, a propagandist who offers no solutions, but only some vague ideas of being prepared (plagarizing the Boy Scouts is not cool) and an undefined notion of restructuring debt. I am undecided, but am beginning to think that your blogs are a practical joke, not unlike our Down with Infidels friend who is no longer with us.

 

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#34) On April 11, 2009 at 8:23 PM, alstry (36.01) wrote:

Dude,

When things are positive, Alstrynomics will be the most bullish on CAPS.

Dude,

Let me teach you a little about realized vs.non realized.  It is obvious you have little practical understanding of the terms.  When the government hands over trillions of REAL taxpayers dollars, whatever term you want to call the losses....that is REAL money being handed over to keep our supposedly solvent banks solvent.

You have little understanding of FRAUDULENT accounting.  If the losses were as you represent, the banks wouldn't need the money.  Do they need the money or not....we have millions of families getting kicked out of their homes who could use it...same with thousands of food banks running out of food.

My guess is we are about to uncover the BIGGEST accounting fraud in U.S. history...the only difference between you and me is that I would have seen it before it made front page headlines.

Right now commercial construction projects are shutting down all over the country.  You may want to take a stroll down the strip in Vegas to see some realized stoppage of construction.

Here is a snipit from CalRisk:

Tom Moyer, one of Portland's most successful real estate developers, will halt work Monday on his 32-floor tower now under construction in downtown Portland.

Moyer's decision to pull 350 workers off the Park Avenue West is a stunning sign that no city, no person and no block is spared from this recession.

Oregon is supposedly a state with a "strong" economy.

I am aware of dozens of similar stories around the country.  Imagine the hundreds, or thousands,  I am unaware of........

Tonight I expect to have a nice glass of wine and a very good cigar...it doesn't mitigate that millions of my fellow Americans are losing their jobs, hundreds of thousands of small businesses are likely to go out of business over the next year, and every municipality in America is or will likely soon face a financial crisis.

Now what is your point??????????????????

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#35) On April 11, 2009 at 9:05 PM, motleyanimal (81.76) wrote:

Alstry,

I'm glad you are doing so well. I'm having a T-bone tonight, only $3.77 a lb. this week. I'll have a ham tomorrow, only $1.17 a lb. No food shortages here in California and I haven't seen much inflation yet, although taxes are sure to increase as you have noted.

I don't have any "point" other than to lend an analytic view to these blogs. With that, I'll leave you with a few quotes from Nietzsche:

"That which does not kill us makes us stronger."

"And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."

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#36) On April 11, 2009 at 9:28 PM, Mary953 (75.77) wrote:

Solaris,

You have asked a question that I have wondered about from time to time.  I confess that I have not found much of an answer here - at least not a concrete step-by-step sort of answer.  I will continue to seek my solutions from my family, friends, and community.  I will seek my shelter from the Lord.  Solaris, I appear to have missed a great deal of the conversation this last couple of days, but have left a message for you.  Be at peace, friend.  The Lord Has Risen!  As the psalmist says, knowing that He is standing for you, who then truly can stand against you?  Blessings,

Mary

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#37) On April 11, 2009 at 9:57 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

Thats what I thought my very bearish fellow fool, ...  perhaps a blog on the nature, use, and purpose of TARP funds and why they are likely to nearly all be paid back, with interest, alot sooner than people realize is in order.  TARP is quite possibly going to be profitable for taxpayers.

 

 

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#38) On April 11, 2009 at 10:10 PM, russiangambit (29.31) wrote:

> If you own rice and water and a few guns.....how long do you think that will last against the thousands of starving people standing outside your home????

------------------------------------------------

Why everybody thinks that there will be revolution like violence in case of financial metldown? There rarely is, usually it is just silent desperation, There will be a few protests here and there, but there will be no violence ( just look at any financial metldown in the past 50 years). We are past the age of revolutions (which is a good thing). There will be some increase in violence. To avoid it, one shoudlnt'not stand out as a sore thumb, don't be flashy and you'll be OK. Guns will  not help you. Au countraire, you'll be targeted because you have a gun, since a gun is a hard asset which can be sold. Even during Great Depression there was no violence, there won't be now.

When financial system is disfunctional there are 3 things that one must have 1) as many hard assets as possible to barter with - precious metals, food, real estate, tools, machinery, cars, medicine etc. (prefarably well hidden)  2) be able to support yourself - which means having a piece of land to grow your veggies, you also would need a well and seeds and 3) a skill to support yourself, - doctor, carpenter, repairman of some sort (shoes, computers, cars, electronics , you name it).

Oh, and get to know you neigbours really well.

Now, I am not saying it is going to happen.  Actually I simply cannot see it happening. But for those who really want to prepare so you can skeeo, that is what you have to do. Take it from somone with experience.

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#39) On April 11, 2009 at 11:27 PM, Harold71 (22.16) wrote:

We are past the age of revolutions (which is a good thing).

I couldn't disagree more.  We are, in fact, entering THE era of revolution.  Let the old way rot and die, so the new can grow and prosper.  That is the theme of this time.  A revolution can be a very good thing.

 

For crimes against humanity, I now invoke the Right of Revolution

http://www.nh.gov/constitution/billofrights.html

NH State Constitution - Bill of Rights

[Art.] 10. [Right of Revolution.]

Government being instituted for the common benefit, protection, and security, of the whole community, and not for the private interest or emolument of any one man, family, or class of men; therefore, whenever the ends of government are perverted, and public liberty manifestly endangered, and all other means of redress are ineffectual, the people may, and of right ought to reform the old, or establish a new government. The doctrine of nonresistance against arbitrary power, and oppression, is absurd, slavish, and destructive of the good and happiness of mankind.

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#40) On April 11, 2009 at 11:54 PM, moerequity (< 20) wrote:

There are things going band-real bad, but right now the fed can print as much money as he wants and it won't do anything for mow. I don't like it and I don't like the programa and the pork which don't have anything to do with the purpose of the stimulus or the baailout. Deflation is our biggest problem right now and eventually we willget better, but then the battle is inflation and the feds will have some tools to work with, mainly raising interest rates.

If you are not home owner now buy a modest home and live in it forever. Low int rates and 8K rebate, Nice, but it won't do much the the ecomy. the banks haven't eve address commercial or jumbo loans. what is goig to be the action by the feds when that happens,

Moe

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#41) On April 12, 2009 at 6:18 AM, kaskoosek (84.70) wrote:

checklist34

This is a simple question I am going to ask you.

How do you expect Americans to pay off their debt?

 

 

 

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#42) On April 12, 2009 at 10:26 AM, Jimmy2008 (< 20) wrote:

David Rosenberg, the most pessimistic on Wall Street, and Noriel Roubini, the most pessimistic academian, have been the most accurate. All the optimists, please become realists! I am neither an optimist nor a pessimist. I am a realist. Things will likely become much worse before it becomes better. I believe that many optimists here are in fact cheelleaders or puppies supported financially by the corrupt bankers on Wall Street!

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#43) On April 12, 2009 at 11:20 AM, columbia1 wrote:

russiangambit-That was the most sensible answer for the original question asked, thank-you!

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#44) On April 12, 2009 at 11:30 AM, TideGoesOut (74.93) wrote:

Chalk me up to another one who doesn't follow this armageddon philosophy.

Even the craziest person in the world sees and hears what happens around them...they just interpret it completely incorrectly.

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