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alstry (< 20)

Alstry's Back and Congratulations to Columbia1



February 24, 2009 – Comments (15)

This is what CAPs started out to accomplish...

The vast majority of online investors aren’t looking to play a game; they’re looking to cut through all the noise out there and find an information provider who can give them an edge to make better investing decisions, to make more money.


Let's me tell you, trying to go long in a market against an economy entering into a Depression is truly a recipie for failure.  And if you think we are about to turn this ship, you may want to stop drinking the kool-aid now or find where you want to be burried.

I am getting tired of this positive nonsense....IT SUCKS OUT THERE and its getting a lot WORSE!!!!!  It's fine to be positive in your personal life, but don't BS yourself into some fantasy that doesn't exist with your investing.

When you have an environment like we have, if you are not prepared, YOU WILL DIE economically.  Is it the end of the world? not even close.....but let me tell you from personal experience, its a lot more fun being rich than poor....don't let anyone fool you otherwise.

There are a bunch of wimps out there, DON"T BE ONE OF THEM.  Take control of your life and NEVER let anyone tell you what to say or do so long as it remains within acceptable limits......we live in a nation where we have freedoms and we should be damm proud to exercise them.

I can promise you this....the mainstream media will now start to come accross in a very similar fashion like I used to a year ago.....most of you will be afraid.....DON'T BE!!!!   For most of you that read this blog, you knew what was coming and hopefully you are prepared.

Expect the DOW to go below 2000.....heck, that is where it was 1990-91 less than 20 years ago.  No big deal.  Expect unemployment to rise above 20%.....again no big deal as long as you are prepared.  We are deleveraging the BIGGEST CREDIT bubble in history...what the hell do you expect?

Screw the wimps.....they are all over the place and they want your money.  They are bankers crying for handouts.  They are people that borrowed way more than they could afford and now want to be "saved." They are bloggers who boast about their success make fun of others and cry when called on the carpet.  They are politicans that love you when they are fundraising and love to spend your money even more.  WIMPS are EVERYWHERE as we becoming such a soft society.

I have never heard so much nonsensical noise as I do now.  Stuff I was blogging about a year ago is finally hitting the press?  You gotta be kidding me?????

You want to be positive, that is great.  But this blog is about investing, cutting through the noise and giving sound investment advice. 

On that note I would like to congratulate Columbia1 for beating me in my contest of picking the most relatively overvalued company.  We both picked stocks to red thumb and mine was Mohawk and his was Las Vegas Sands.  My pick was down about 45% since early November and his was down almost 66%. 

My friend Columbia beat me fair and square and it was my privelege to compeat against him.

Here is the fun part about those that practice Alstrynomics, the loser BEAT the market by about 66% in less than four months, the winner beat the market by over 80% in the same time frame.  FIND ME A SINGLE MUTUAL FUND IN AMERICA with similar performance.  The only other pick that Alstry has analyzed on CAPS is SPF and that is down about 97% since Alstry started covering it.

You want an investment blog that gives you facts which cuts through the noise, read this want to be a positive wimp, get the hell out of here and go someplace else.

I made a promise to TMF JAKE to never single out an individual CAPs member in a negative fashion ever again.  Alstry always keeps his promises.  But you collective wimps, and you know who you are, you are an embarrassement to yourselves and grow up.  It is getting tough out there and about to get a lot tougher. 

Our country faces serious issues and we need leaders with strength and courage to stand up to the wimps and moochers ala Atlas Shrugged.  We need people to think and be willing to have the courage of their convictions and not succomb to the popular perspective just because it is easy.

Alstrynomics is about self reliance, self respect, and winning.  This blog has provided exactly that perspective for those that read it.

You were warned by Alstry on what to do.....whether you did it or not I could careless, you are free to make whatever choice you want and Alstry believes in freedom.....but don't cry about your decision and please don't spread your carelessness and cause others harm.  

At this point, I hear a lot of noise out careful of the sirens song.....if you choose to stay on the field.......Alstry will be there.....points and rating, and only points and rating will determine the winners from the losers.

Do you want to be a WINNER OR A LOSER????

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 24, 2009 at 7:55 PM, Harvardkid (27.30) wrote:

at least you are done with that positive identity.  it was really annoying.

i dont know that i've heard a good response to this question yet.  what advice do you have to people other than saving up 1-2 years of expenses? 

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#2) On February 24, 2009 at 8:11 PM, columbia1 wrote:

Thank-you for the mention, since I know you are a gambling man, would you be interested in let'em ride and go double or nothing for the next quarter?

I was surprised that MHK held up for that long, their burning through money.

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#3) On February 24, 2009 at 8:20 PM, goldminingXpert (28.83) wrote:

Yeah, the PositiveAlstry was a real pain in the rear.

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#4) On February 24, 2009 at 8:33 PM, TMFJake (90.63) wrote:

PostiveAlstry was just a dude playing a dude disguised as another dude.  :)

And nice quote Alstry, I still believe in that statement 100%.  Nice tie in with Alstrynomics.

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#5) On February 24, 2009 at 9:47 PM, PDTBiotech (79.92) wrote:

Doubling up on your old unemployment call from last May, eh?

"My earlier prediction was 10% umemployment by the end of summer.....we have already exceeded that number in a number of counties in CA and the situation is gettng much worse daily.

My new prediction is 20% umemployment by the end of the year.  You think I am about this from one of our strongest banks in America.....remember if the banks ain't making money.....nobody will."

I'll take the other end of this action - you read it here first, UNEMPLOYMENT WILL NOT HIT 20% BY THE END OF 2009.  Does anyone know where I can sell some unemployment calls?  I'd also consider putting in a side bet on Alstry saying you can't trust The Man's unemployment numbers.

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#6) On February 24, 2009 at 10:10 PM, InsuranceHunter (< 20) wrote:

Standing ovation for Alstry!!!!!!!!!  The man tells it like it needs to be told.  Keep telling your story Alstry because some of us not so foolish are listening to you!

Better learn how to short the market or you had better stay on the sidelines.  Technicals do NOT lie.  After this short covering rally it's diver down.  The consumer has no free cash, companys have no earnings and Washington is ate up with the dumb ass.  In fact I'm not so sure that Washington isn't purposely spreading the misery which gives them greater control.  It's not how good or bad the apples taste but rather who controls the orchard.

 Bring it.

"Government is not reason. It is not eloquence. It is a force, like fire: a dangerous servant and a terrible master." - George Washington Report this comment
#7) On February 25, 2009 at 1:11 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


You are the one with the Harvard degree.  It ain't that hard.  As I said before, pay off all debt so long as you have cash reserves, don't spend foolishly.

Once you save enough, start investing prudently.  Shorting is for professionals, so absent that, my suggestion is to stay in cash until America stops deleveraging, then the world is your oyster.  If sleeping with metals helps you rest better during the inevitable turmoil, than by all means don't let me stop you from picking up a bit.


It is a race to zero.  At this point we can flip a coin...but if you want to make a seven day game from today's close, I am in.


Just wait until stuff like this starts kicking in very soon:

Georgia regulators confirmed Tuesday that 25,000 state workers at various agencies have been furloughed over the last six months as part of ongoing budget reduction requirements.

My friends, Japan's exports are down 46% as reported tonight on Bloomberg....for an export nation, a 46% decline is not a recession as the headline alluded, IT IS A DEPRESSION!!!

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#8) On February 25, 2009 at 1:24 AM, awallejr (29.57) wrote:

Warning about economic turmoil is one thing.  Advising certain investments, and giving reasons thereto is one thing.  But sputtering the same old same old is like listening to CNBC 24/7.  You open this blog with saying this site should be more about discussion than playing a game, yet you and others like Abitare love to point out the scores, despite the fact that it is all baloney in the real world.  NONE of you are doing in real life what you pick in CAPS. 

It IS tough out there.  I often have to advise people facing real life calamities. The one saying that gives me some comfort is the saying "there but for the Grace of God go I."  A woman had her face literally eaten by a crazed chimpanzee on Long Island a little while ago.  I can deal with a down stock market.

You want to throw nutty predictions out there like a dow 2000,  fine.  Some day gasoline will sell for 15 cents a gallon again at the pumps.  What annoys me about many of the media pundits is they just spout out predictions as if they were guessing the Super Bowl score.  It isn't the same thing.  But hype is hype I suppose. 

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#9) On February 25, 2009 at 1:42 AM, awallejr (29.57) wrote:

Love PDTBiotech's request, tho I would want to expand it to buy/sell put/calls on unemployment numbers. But as a fyi there was a point when Alstry was calling for 33% unemployment. I will write the calls off that one.

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#10) On February 25, 2009 at 1:49 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Please provide concrete examples where I "sputtered" the same old same old.  I hear this refrain over and over.  I just can't find it.

I am shorting in real life.  My personal porfolio is 100% leveraged short and cash.  I actually just bought a relatively insignificant amount of physical silver more for novelty than investment.

My blog is about investing and economics.  Nobody is saying it is the end of the world.  But if you don't have money, it makes life a lot more difficult.

As far as your claim that my 2000 prediction is nutty, my guess is you felt the same when I was projecting cities, states, and banks would go bankrupt.  I actually think it will get lower than 2000, but 2000 is low enough for now.

As far as guessing, my analysis is far from a guess.  My guess is that few on CAPs can come anywhere close to my experience analyzing companies.

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#11) On February 25, 2009 at 2:04 AM, awallejr (29.57) wrote:

Well good luck on the real life shorts.  Just be careful, since shorting is more gambling than true investing. But predicting a Dow 2000 as the same as predicting that certain banks, cities and states will go bankrupt is NOT the same thing.  Certain cities and states WILL suffer differently than others mainly because of the old real estate saying of "location, location, location."  But a DOW 2000 ignores decades of increased growth and inflation.  It's like saying "I remember the days when coffee went for a nickel a cup."  The ONLY way this MIGHT happen i if there was literally a total collapse of this country's economy and government.  Sorry Charley I have more faith in the people of this Country and our system than apparently you do.

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#12) On February 25, 2009 at 7:45 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Keep the faith baby but this ain't about is about math and understanding how to value a business....and as coffee being a nickel a cup....have you been to Wall Drug lately.

I see you don't ride a Harley.

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#13) On February 25, 2009 at 11:06 AM, dinodelaurentis (83.21) wrote:

aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhh,    alstry.

my old pal.

how are you doing? God knows, i missed you!

You see the truth and shout it to the heavens. guilty men murmure.

Full disclosure: I do not own a Harley but a Suzuki GXSR 750.

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#14) On February 25, 2009 at 5:14 PM, barich1 (40.13) wrote:

The idea is the same old but the information is new every time.  Keep on giving that new information please, I find that I turn bullish easily and want to catch the bottom.  I would be hurting a lot worse financially if Alstry didn't spew the negative news here on CAPS.

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#15) On February 28, 2009 at 11:08 PM, TideGoesOut (< 20) wrote:

Nope, sorry.

Sure, things are bad. But they aren't THAT bad. Wall Street is not going to be jumping out windows anytime soon.

Things might get worse. Not that much worse. We might not be at the bottom yet, but we're near it.

And...cheer the hell up! As the Buddha said, find the middle path. Certainly, life is chock full of suffering but accept it and move forward. 

I swear, the biggest problem in this market is that people THINK it's going to get worse. Self-fulfilling prophecy. Someone who people trust for investment advice needs to stand up and tell people to get their crap together and improve things, quit being whiny babies and grab a shovel to dig the way out of this.

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