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alstry (34.93)

Alstry/Alstrymous vs. Keynes

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June 11, 2010 – Comments (14)

Alstry, the predecessor Alstrymous and the creator of Alstrynomics predicted the Housing Crash, then the Banking Crisis....and now the Government Collapse.....he even said a few days after the BP spill that it would become the worst man made disaster in history as some Fools were advising you to buy BP stock.

Here is Keynes' Predeiction:

“We will not have any more crashes in our time.” – John Maynard Keynes in 1927

http://www.quotesstar.com/quotes/w/we-will-not-have-any-122209.html

Whooops.  You can say silly things when you fail to tie money to production. Money is simply a derivitive of production and once you make it anything else, production eventually shuts down and man must go to war to fight for production. 

We shoulda restructured....now we must fight for production.

Maybe that is why Krugman won the nobel prize for Economics as America's production shuts down and Obama won the prize for Peace as we ramp up our military efforts at the fastest nominal pace in history.

Welcome to the Digital Age....Somebody has to guide us sheep as the fight is about to begin preceeding the most innovative period in human history.

I told you it would be exciting......you have to admit just sitting on your backside simply consuming without producing much is pretty boring.  Nothing like a good fight to get the juices flowing again....at least that is what most of our politicians think....because they sure as heck don't think production is necessary anymore.

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 11, 2010 at 7:00 PM, alstry (34.93) wrote:

There are times I question who is a bigger sheep, Keynes or the pancake eating Fools who don't understand that the BP spill is EASILY the worst and most costly disaster in human history....nominally speaking of course and discounting any consideration for human life.

As a former tort lawyer, let's add up the damages excluding punitives and foreseeable emotional distress.

Let's do it quickly to see if we should take the case.  Unless a new technology develops to evaporate oil, it is clear it will be sticking(no pun intended) around for years.

Here we go:

Loss of the fishing industry.....not to mention the boating industry in general including leisure yachting and all the ports and marinas....and let me tell ya, there are a lotta them down there.

Loss of shipping and increased cost to transport goods...this could be a biggie too.

Here is a really really biggie biggie:

Dimunation in value of beachfront property around the entire South Eastern coastline....especially costly around the Gold Coast area of Naples-Sarasota...and who knows how far it will go....

Uh Oh....Florida's, Alabama, and Louisana's tourism industry which is the basis of value for practically everything in those states...especially since the shuttle program is shutting down.

Loss of income to the hotels and surrounding businesses.  Loss of income to the employees.  Loss of tax receipts.....we could go on and on and on.....

My guess once you discount the total loss to present value......we could be approaching many many tens of trillions of dollars.....MANY MANY....more money than exists on earth.

FYI.....this is what Alstry used to do for a living.....;)

And what the stock market, most things have little, if any correlation to anymore.......

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#2) On June 11, 2010 at 8:37 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Come on, man.  You haven't even begun to measure the ultimate damage:

1. The loss of sales for new hanging car air fresheners Montana people buy for a long drive.  And the loss of income to workers laid off because of shrinking air freshener sales.

2. The loss of new tire sales to Nova Scotia citizens who use up their tires driving to the Gulf for vacations.  Loss of income to the workers making new tires.

3. The loss of gasoline sales to Rhode Islanders who otherwise would have driven to the Gulf.  Loss of income to the gas pumpers.  Oil change sales in Providence plunge.

4. The loss of binocular sales people would have bought to look at whales in the Gulf.

5. The loss of Ding Dong cake sales to missing vacationers from Buttheadistan.

6. The loss of umbrella sales to missing vacationers from St. Kitts and Nevis.  Rains on the Gulf, you know.

7. Loss of income to the guys who scoop cigarette butts out of the outside motel cans in the Gulf area.

8. Suntan sales losses to the missing tourists from Tibet.

9. Toilet paper sales shrinkage because of missing tourists from Uzbekistan.

10. Condom sales losses because of missing tourists, and those who do come feeling less frisky.

11. Crop losses because the oil-covered Gulf will not evaporate as quickly, thus yielding less rain in Iowa.

12. Reduced income to realtors in Wyoming, because fewer people will retire to the Southeast after selling their homes.

13. Reduced exit taxes from Andorra for tourists traveling to Alabama.  Lord, this is a worldwide catastrophe.

14. Reduced sale of brioches in Lausanne to tourists departing for Metarie, LA.

15. Reduced postage stamp sales in Mongolia because people there won't write to tourists from Mongolia who don't go.

I could go on, but you get the picture of what a worldwide catastrophe this is.  Certainly more than all of the money in the whole world (~$30-50 trillion) will be lost.

Tighten up your analysis, man.  I feel sure it will affect every man, woman and child in the whole world and the Hubble telescope besides.  Not to mention the Moon Rovers.

And don't forget that penguins in Antarctica are pooping in fear it'll happen to them.  Who's gonna pay to clean that up?

 

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#3) On June 11, 2010 at 10:12 PM, awallejr (85.46) wrote:

Let us forget the other predictions you made Alstry:  DOW would be 2,000-5,000 by end of summer of last year. GDP would be negative 60. Unemployment would be 50-60%,  And let's not forget the whole MOAP dramatics that basically went nowhere.

But hey, your score is <20, so according to YOU we shouldn't take what you say seriously.

As for BP's ultimate liability no one has a clue. I am, however, getting tired of Obama namecalling the company as if that means anything.  What he should have done was set up an immediate command post and had BP run their operations through the military.  All he is engaging in now is nothing more than political posturing preying on people's anger.  He's just playing politics.  But what else would you expect from a politican from Chicago.

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#4) On June 11, 2010 at 11:19 PM, alstry (34.93) wrote:

Actually, under the Alstrynomic definition of unemployment, which is a much better definition then the nonsense the BLS puts out....well over half of America is no longer producing to generate an income. Well over half....and many many more are working for unsustainable incomes requring them to obtain free money in food stamps to help cover the gap.

Those that are producing simply don't produce enough to support the non producers any more and the lazy retired folks who are not working and getting huge checks from government, pensions and investments that have no basis making such payments as there is very little production to support such payments.

We have basically morphed into a society where the many are getting free money and producing very little...and the few are working really hard trying to support the growing number of non producers.

Pretty soon the producers are just going to say....give me all your money you lazy non producers or do the work yourself.

12000 Minnesota nurses launch 1-day walkout‎ -

Once the producers figure it out....that is whan the lazy moochers will start a war....a really really BIG war to force people to produce....it is the only way out.

As far as BPs damages, assuming negligence, the damages are very easy to quantify within a certain zone of foreseeability.....right now addiing up $10 trillion is very very easy....M2 is only $9 trillion.

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#5) On June 11, 2010 at 11:40 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Yes, it's those damned nonproducing kids...all 155 million of them, that are screwing up the system.  They just mooch off of Mommy and Daddy and produce nothing, while Mommy and Daddy struggle to produce.

Way to go homing into the fundamental problem.

 

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#6) On June 11, 2010 at 11:47 PM, awallejr (85.46) wrote:

Well over half?  Your U6 number which is what you argued would be 50-60% is nowhere near that.  Keep spinning.

And as for BP damages, Sorry Charley, I litigate, unlike you and you aren't going to see trillions of dollars as damages against the company.  Billions yes, trillions no. As typical you just make up exaggerated numbers.

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#7) On June 11, 2010 at 11:54 PM, alstry (34.93) wrote:

No no Donner...it is not the children.....as long as they are in school, or learning a trade....or at least preparing themselves to become productive....they are setting the foundation for the future....

It is the fat lazy retired people with their investments that are really not producing very much absent government printing a bunch of money it doesn't have and handing it to:

40,000,000 Food Stamp Recipients

50,000,000 Social Security/Welfare Recipients

20,000,000 or so Umemployment Recipients

just the spending of the above drives a huge percentage of our economy factoring in the multiplier effect.  The problem rests in that we don't produce near enough to make the massive payments we are making.....

As a result the nation is shutting down right before your eyes as we morph into a welfare nation....

and the children you referenced earlier....as you well know...China and India are each producing more engineers each year than we are producing graduates.

Yes my friend, keep on making pancakes.....and advising people to invest in broke municipalities and broke oil companies......they too are not producing enough to meet the liabilities.

It is simply the law of money which is the first rule of Alstrynomics....money should always be a derivitive of production...the further you get away from that and production becomes a derivitive of money...the closer you get to money being worth no more than the paper it was printed upon.....the same is true for gold.

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#8) On June 12, 2010 at 12:05 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

But fortunately, we can count on the useful production of our workers, valuable for our world trade, like government employees at all levels, tort attorneys, restaurant managers and food service workers, burger flippers and teachers.

Oops!  Guess that doesn't count as production for your definition.  Shoot.  We are doomed.

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#9) On June 12, 2010 at 12:07 AM, alstry (34.93) wrote:

Awa...

The BLS number are BS and you know it....just like we have had very little inflation since 2000 so government could keep Social Security checks stagnant.  If inflation has been so tame, at least price inflation, then why has the price of practically everything we spend upon including property taxes, all forms of insurance, fuel, medicine, and many food items doubled or more over the period?

Back to BP....

How much do you think the damages are just from the dimunation in value of real estate along the Southeast coast of America?

Billlions barely gets you out of Naples and Sarasota.....

What about the loss of income to all the tourist workers, and businesses, and state taxes?

Now discount that to a present value over just a five year period.....

Thanks goodness you are not my lawyer....you would be leaving a ton of money on the table.

My guess is BP will voluntarily file for bankruptcy before the end of Summer.

This one is too easy to think too hard upon.......

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#10) On June 12, 2010 at 12:11 AM, alstry (34.93) wrote:

Donner,

Only the retired and non productive are doomed...those that can produce will be fine....it always works that way in the end.

Production can be in the form of a trade, skill or service.....or fighting in case of conflict.

And for clarification, nobody said America is not producing....it is just not producing to sustain the current lifestyle of the retired, government and non productive.....or as I like to call it....the world as you know it.

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#11) On June 12, 2010 at 12:21 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Ah, but Alstry, this retired non-productive soul supports 1000+ productive workers in three companies from venture capital investments made in the past.

How many do you support in the cafeteria/restaurant and from the "millions" you have invested in the past?

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#12) On June 12, 2010 at 12:30 AM, awallejr (85.46) wrote:

Alstry you were the one arguing U6 to be 50-60% while capping U2 at around 11%.  Not me.  I told you that didn't make sense since U6 to U2 never correlated more than 2 to 1.  And it still has not. So keep spining there. 

As for BP damages, I won't call a number since I think it is too early.  But it won't be trillions. All those tax cheats who filed under reported tax returns, for example, won't be able to prove "true" damages. The fines are more of a concern than the economic damages for the company. But fines are punitive not compensatory.  Do we really want to bankrupt a company that does contribute dramatically to our economy in the long run out of anger?  Compensatory yes, in my opinion, punitive I am not so sure (unless reckless negligence on their part is ultimately proven).

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#13) On June 12, 2010 at 4:21 AM, 1315623493 wrote:

“We will not have any more crashes in our time.” – John Maynard Keynes in 1927 

How does that take away the legitimacy of Keynesian economics which at the time, was still theory! You can't fault the man for making faulty assumptions about how his theory would be used practically. Not the mention the "brilliant" performance of laissez-faire capitalism which beautifully ushered in a new era of Keynesianism in 2008. 

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#14) On June 12, 2010 at 8:01 AM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

@Beta

Excellent point...which BTW should sit perfectly fine with Alstry, since he has had soooo many accurate predictions sullied by sooooo many more crappy ones. 

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