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alstry (35.45)

Alstrydomous....The Oracle of Caps!!!

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June 18, 2009 – Comments (10)

My friends it is been a rough tide for this Captain of the S.S. Alstrynomics......piloting this ship through rough waters from Dow 14,000 to now Dow under 9000.  The ship has stayed intact with a focused message despite some big waves WHILE successfully predicting and navigating crisis after crisis.

We have made numerous picks in numerous industries with numerous styles both long and short over the past year and a half.  We have successfully been able to maintain a remarkable average score of OVER 13 plus a very satisfactory over 5000 total points.

A few weeks ago we called the top around 8300 and we all know MAJOR top calls have a 10% margin of error.  As time has passed there has been nothing to shake my confidence that a top has been formed around this level.

Some of you technofairies must not succomb the the sweetness of the sirens song.....stay focused on the facts and stay strong......although it has been said consistentcy is the hobgoblin of the small mind.....persistence when right is the mother of success.....really sweet success....delicious and juicy success.

The beauty of the markets is you are free to choose your own path....at least for now.....and choose that path well my friends.....

As one, among others, who successfully predicted the financial crisis, who successfully indicated that unemployment would skyrocket far beyond what the "experts" were indicating, that we would have a pension crisis(take a look at YRCW today), a municipal debt crisis, and much much more.....Alstrydomous is ready to provide some more insight into the future....

Between now and 9.09 expect to read about some of the following:

MASSIVE BANKRUPTCIES BEING REPORTED

THOUSANDS OF SCHOOLS SHUTTING DOWN AND/OR HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF TEACHERS AND PROFESSORS BEING FIRED(my wife may be one of them)

TRUCKING COMPANIES IN CRISIS

HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS IN DIRE STRAITS

AIRLINES SQUEEZED

IN ADDITION TO THE TEACHERS AND PROFESSORS ABOVE, ADDITIONAL HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, MAYBE MILLIONS OF GOVERNMENT WORKERS WILL LIKELY LOSE THEIR JOBS AS WELL

A FINANCIAL CRISIS THAT EXCEEDS THE ONE'S WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THUS FAR

POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT TO ERUPT....MUCH BIGGER THAN IRAQ

PREPARE FOR FEAR....BUT DON'T SCARE......ALSTRYDOMOUS IS HERE AND ALL WILL BE FINE!!!!!

 

 

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 18, 2009 at 3:01 PM, MGDG (38.21) wrote:

Alstry, I picked up the morning paper and the headline is local school district sends out pink slips to a majority of Teachers in the district. I take that to mean more than 50%. The reaction of the local community was reported to be "shock and anger".

 

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#2) On June 18, 2009 at 3:14 PM, alstry (35.45) wrote:

MGDG.....

It is only the beginning....PREPARE mentally.....

It is always easier to anticipate than react.........this go around you will experience events NEVER experienced BEFORE!!!!

Stay focused and stay strong.........

Remember.....Alstrynomics is all about being right....economics is about telling you what you want to hear!!!!!

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#3) On June 18, 2009 at 3:33 PM, Crosshair (92.38) wrote:

Before calling out a doom scenario, let's first consider the encouraging news that came out today.

Manufacturing Index at a 9-month high...

The future general activity index remained positive for the 6th straight month, jumping to 60.1 in June from 47.5 in May . That's the highest reading since September 2003. The index has now increased 71 points since December.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/18/news/economy/philadelphia_fed_business_outlook/?postversion=2009061811

 

 

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#4) On June 18, 2009 at 3:40 PM, alstry (35.45) wrote:

Tell that to the new home construction industry DOWN 80%

Auto Industry DOWN 50%

Motor Home Industry DOWN 77%

and I could go on and on and on.....you can believe what the economists tell you......or learn Alstrynomics

Alstrynomics is all about being right.......there is lots of stuff out there telling you what you want to hear.

 

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#5) On June 18, 2009 at 4:07 PM, Crosshair (92.38) wrote:

Where do you think those statistics on homes and autos are coming from? Those same economists you seem not to trust...

Granted, housing is crummy. But, if I have capital, I want to place it in more promising areas than housing. What those statistics reflect is the pop in the real estate bubble. We hope the decline in housing stabilizes. We are not so disillusioned in thinking a full reversal is on the horizon. As the Nasdaq has not come anywhere near the 5000 level it reached back in the tech hay day, nor will housing return to its peak. Those statistics you cite are with us for a long time, and, quite frankly, will only serve to reminder us of the dangers confronted in a highly levered environment.

Manufacturing is up, employment will soon pick up, better days are ahead of us.

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#6) On June 18, 2009 at 4:27 PM, alstry (35.45) wrote:

No....I read the quarterly financial statements of the public homebuilders and also read the trade rags such as Big Builder Online for housing data....as far as the auto data......similar process plus I have some buddies that are auto executives and/or own dealerships.

I also have friends that own transporation companies....if you think manufacturing is up.....they ain't shipping it anywhere;)

If you want your score to improve....you may want to start understanding Alstrynomics a bit better.

 

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#7) On June 18, 2009 at 5:46 PM, Varchild2008 (84.27) wrote:

Food, Beverage, Health Care seem to be the Safe Havens in a Massive Crisis situation.

Neither of those 3 did Alstry mention any related crisis.

Auto sector?  Crisis
Education Sector?  Crisis
Manufacturing and Housing?  Crisis
Government Agencies (Post Office) ? Crisis

But.... Nope....Not Beverage, Food, or Health Care.

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#8) On June 19, 2009 at 12:33 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

"The Philadelphia Fed index, a reading on manufacturing in the mid-Atlantic region, improved to minus 2.2 in June from minus 22.6 in May.

The report far surpassed estimates. Analysts expected a reading of minus 18, according to a consensus survey from Briefing.com."

I do see your point, but this is the same lame 'we're not falling as fast as we once were' argument that defies gravity and mathematics.  Do you have any idea how many UP months will be required to compensate for what has alrerady been lost?   Do you have the correct estimate of what has been lost and is no longer economic?  Did you also notice that while unemployment claims are 'moderating' the sum total is still increasing?  Do you also realize that this has been going on for now 18 months since the Bush Administration acknowledged that the recession began in December of 2007?

At what point do we stop floating down the river, in the wrong direction, at a slightly slower pace?  When we hit the rapids?  No thanks, that looks good for someone else to swim in.   

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#9) On June 19, 2009 at 2:36 AM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

My friend told me some teachears got pink slips got called back in the past couple of weeks in CA. wtf is going on?

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#10) On June 22, 2009 at 8:53 PM, Starfirenv (< 20) wrote:

 Vchild---               Slowing the bleeding does not equal 'getting better'. Bleeding is  bleeding. BUT, you are right about food and beverage not being mentioned. That could be our saving grace on this train ride, but never before have we had so many boxcars lined up as we steam down dubious tracks.

  Sounds to me like Cap'n Al sees a squall. For me, I think I see some writing on the wall. Either way, from here,  looks like ' a hard rain's gonna fall'.

 

 

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