Alstrydomous........The Significance of 1.01.10
To the best of my guestimate......revenues across most industries in America have dropped at least 20% over the past few years. The rest of the world is not too much different. In America a number of industries, such as health care and defense, have been artificially supported by an unsustainable deficit.....and as a result the dollar has plunged.
We are now at a crossroads......do we save the dollar or destroy America. Saving the dollar has become a matter of national security or we could end up in chaos like North Korea if we let things go too far.
My guess is save the dollar through a ramp up of militarization of America and a reduction of debt across the board through a variety of avenues.
The world has become very unstable in the past few months. Terrorist attack at Fort Hood. People with Middle Eastern sounding names crashing the White House, the most secure residence in the world. Iran becoming more defiant.......and headlines like this appearing in the WSJ daily:
Deadly Blast at Russian Nightclub
Attack Targets Pakistan's Military
Blast Kills Somali Ministers, Students
America will likely be forced to divert a significant amount of its resources to the military........causing many non military industries to slow and potentially fail.....my guess is many more than many Wall Street analysts are factoring right now because few have much of a background in international conflicts and the impact on the American Economy.
Washington seems to be concerned as well based on these comments in the Washington Post:
Al-Qaeda followers are inside the United States and would like to attack targets here and in other countries, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Wednesday night.
The secretary's comments were her bluntest assessment yet of terror threats within the country
Alstrynomics factors many data points across many fields to reach its fact based forecasts (FBFs). The Big Miss in 2009 was how far Benny The B would let the dollar crash to bail out his Wall Street buddies at the expense of the rest of America.
In 2010.....we will likely see AT LEAST 20% of the non defense industry jobs lost due to declining revenues and a diversion of resources to defense. Even though we will likely lose 20% of the jobs in America....the unemployment rate may never go up based on the mythical methodologies of the BLS in calculating unemployment.
The frequency of terrorist data hits has increased as of late.....same with the increase of percentage of labor force layoffs by corporations. We have also seen a dramatic increase in the cuts to cities, counties and states and health care..
We should get a clearer picture of things as we approach 1.01.10......but if current trends gain traction......much higher layoffs and a stronger dollar seem to be two trends developing.