Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

alstry (36.49)

Alstrynomic Business Lesson 102

Recs

24

February 03, 2009 – Comments (19)

If things ain't moving....the economy is slowing.

This tonight from United....

United January traffic down 10.9%; capacity falls 10.5%

But it is not just the largest airline in the country whose people traffic is down double digits, it is air cargo as well.  Not only air cargo but trucking tonage and rail too.

We are seeing the movement of people and goods down 10-20%.  That means that hotels, retail, manufacturing, and other important industries are also seeing a coresponding or greater decline.  Loss of revenues, when it comes to employment, can be a much more important figure than profits....as it deals with quanitity of output and labor necessary to produce it.

Right now we are seeing revenues crashing in Autos, Airlines, Construction, Housing, Finance, Trucking, Retail, Hotels, and Manufacturing .  We are likely looking at over 50% of GDP and probably more as a percentage of employment.

At this rate.....if sales continue to decline....we should easily exceed 20% unemployment by summer.

Lesson 102:

If people and goods ain't moving....the economy is slowing.  And let me tell you....based on my contacts IN THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY.....things are slowing.

Again, showing how meaningless relative performance can be in a falling market, if trucking is slowing 20% but air freight is slowing 30%, even though trucking is beating its air benchmark by ten points, if fixed costs require an 85% revenue base to remain solvent, trucking is bankrupt and shareholders are out in the cold.

What have we learned so far....

101...If a company is going bankrupt, stay out of the way as relative peformance doesn't matter when it comes to shareholders.

102..If things ain't moving, the economy is slowing.  And often the things that move have high fixed costs....but not always...so be very careful.

Right now, based on high leverage and the rapid decline in revenues accross many industries, you should not be surprised if half the companies in the S&P go bankrupt and shareholders of those companies are totally wiped out!!!!

Heck, if you do a balance sheet analysis on many, Banks, Homebuilders, Auto Companies, Auto Suppliers and Airlines you might already find many to be considered effectively underwater.

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 03, 2009 at 8:21 PM, AndreylikesMTL (95.88) wrote:

 Crap

More I read your BS, more of it, starting to make cense.

Report this comment
#2) On February 03, 2009 at 8:30 PM, zygnoda (27.00) wrote:

based on my contacts IN THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY

You know a lot of truckers or what?   lol

Report this comment
#3) On February 03, 2009 at 9:09 PM, TDRH (99.54) wrote:

Alstry, what do you pay per rec for this dribble?   I am for sale.

Up 200 recs this weekend, with 15 recepts for your most recent posts?   Does the number 5000 on yahoo finance mean anything to you?  

You add no value to this site. 

Report this comment
#4) On February 03, 2009 at 9:47 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

Zyg,

I used to be the chief investment officer for a trucking company.  So I guess relative to most people, yes.....I do know a lot of truckers....and a few owners of trucking firms as well.

TRDH,

I am quite confident that soon I will have more points and a higher rating than you with just a fraction of the picks and playing for a much shorter time.

In other words, just you against me, I will be competing with one arm and one leg tied behind my back.

I am making this call 2500 points behind you and with over 1000 fewer picks.  I promise I will never have more than 1000 fewer picks before I surpass your score and possibly your accuracy as well.

If you want to attribute value to popularity, that is fine...but I am about to kick your backside at the core of what CAPs is all about...scoring....at that point you will learn to value real value. 

Real value is helping people learn how to help themselves.  Teaching people how to distinguish between important and impotant....between concise and collateral.

Alstrynomics teaches people in the end, a share of stock is a piece of a business and those who understand this can outperform the market in the long run.  Until you understand this, you are at the whim of market fluctuations and popularity pimps like you.

Can you feel the pressure? Can you handle the spotlight?  This is the key difference between professional athletes that succeed and those that fail....they can't take the head game.

Not only will Alstrynomics relatively outperform the market, it will absolutely outperform the great TRDH.  Then we will see who provides more value to this game.

The time for honoring yourself will soon end.

Report this comment
#5) On February 03, 2009 at 11:25 PM, zygnoda (27.00) wrote:

I figured as much but it made me laugh when I thought of you hanging out with truckers.

Could you tell me more about trucking?  Are there some especially unhealthy players?

Report this comment
#6) On February 04, 2009 at 12:33 AM, dinodelaurentis (78.70) wrote:

Wow!

The more i lean about you, the more i'm impressed!

Have you ever heard of Santee, SC? Off I-95?

i lived there 11 years and i've got a lot of stories... :)

Report this comment
#7) On February 04, 2009 at 3:08 AM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Alstry:

Your drivel is annoying.  Mostly I ignore it.  But you are so full of yourself (and full of crap) that it becomes unbearable.

You do know that of your current picks (118) 83 are under water, don't you?  Well, crapmeister, let's put Alstrynomics to a real world test.  You "promise" you'd whip TDRH.

I will send a $40,000 cashiers check to your attorney for a public bet.  The first $10,000 says you will not beat him by May 1, 2009.  The second $10,000 says you will not beat him by August 1, 2009.  The third $10,000 says you will not beat him by November 1, 2009.  The last $10,000 says you will not beat him by December 31, 2009.

You send an equal check also.  Both to be put into an escrow account.  Confirmation from your attorney that he has deposited both.  Payoffs at each target date.

Now, mouth, stop the BS and step up to the plate.  Send me your attorney's name and address.  If you whimp out, well that's Alstrynomics for you.  Everyone is watching.

Report this comment
#8) On February 04, 2009 at 4:09 AM, dinodelaurentis (78.70) wrote:

Ooooooh, a stare down!

God i love the Internet!!!

Report this comment
#9) On February 04, 2009 at 5:02 AM, Seano67 (25.12) wrote:

Alstrynomics teaches people in the end, a share of stock is a piece of a business and those who understand this can outperform the market in the long run.

 

Oh really? Well then why are the vast majority of your picks crappy ultras? You know as well as I do that's not a realistic investment strategy in real life, so I can only assume you're making a grab for Caps points there. Why not pick a portfolio composed of actual companies, and see how Alstrynomics does with that?

 

Not trying to insult you or anything, but I think you come across as being very hypocritical sometimes. 

Report this comment
#10) On February 04, 2009 at 5:07 AM, DaretothREdux (37.50) wrote:

Donnernv,

For you I am going to use an expression that I hate with every fiber of my being:

OH SNAP!

Report this comment
#11) On February 04, 2009 at 5:10 AM, DemonDoug (32.63) wrote:

trucks consume a very large portion of the gas and oil we import every year.

I see oil going down even further and demand continuing to drop off.

Report this comment
#12) On February 04, 2009 at 6:57 AM, cbwang888 (25.60) wrote:

LM's Bill Miller beat S&P for 15 year but lost his reputation and fund money in one single year.  Don't claim your victory so fast before the market suprise you on the way up with your shorts in real life, even the run up could be short-live.

 

Report this comment
#13) On February 04, 2009 at 7:52 AM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

Donnrv,

First, My "promise" was compound.....that I would surpass TRDH with 1000 fewer picks.  Being focused on the detail is very important when you are reading 10Ks.....but I will save this lesson for an upper level Alstrynomics course.

Second, CAPs is about investors helping investors....and we must never derail ourselves from that primary principal.  You guys have helped me a lot because before starting to play CAPs, I was a terrible trader.....now I just suck but getting better.

Third, you are a puss.  You really expect me to make an even money bet when I am handicaping myself.  Why don't you structure terms that are appropriate for the odds.  You know, apply Black-Scholes or some other statistical modeling.

Foruth, you are crossing into legal issues making a monetary bet accross state lines.  Anyone with knowledge would be appreciated.

Fifth, making a donation to a reptutable charity once I surpass TRDH?  I will make it whether I accomplish my stated goal or not.....how is that?

Report this comment
#14) On February 04, 2009 at 12:04 PM, kstarich (30.90) wrote:

Donnrv

Alstry doesn't have the 40K!!

Report this comment
#15) On February 04, 2009 at 1:33 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Alstry:

I'll take that as a no.  It's that pressure and spotlight thing, isn't it?  Funny how talk is cheap but backing it up comes more dearly.

Report this comment
#16) On February 04, 2009 at 3:11 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

Funny how you made that comment when I left one for you on your blog.

No wonder you can't even score zero.

Report this comment
#17) On February 04, 2009 at 8:53 PM, EverydayInvestor (< 20) wrote:

"Right now, based on high leverage and the rapid decline in revenues accross many industries, you should not be surprised if half the companies in the S&P go bankrupt and shareholders of those companies are totally wiped out!!!!"

Comment to myself: do not feed the troll. 

Comment to alstry: could you at least stop the damn neologism? That is alstrynoying.

Report this comment
#18) On February 04, 2009 at 10:55 PM, DowTrader (52.36) wrote:

I agree Everyday.  I think we'll only get a reprieve from the troll's neologism if he goes on an extended "Alstrycation" after being involuntarily committed to an Alstrytution.

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

Report this comment
#19) On February 04, 2009 at 11:54 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (99.64) wrote:

Hello, can anyone tell me the exact date when oil futures are disclosed. On a side note I'm working on a therory that states whenever Jim Cramer interviews a CEO the stock will move 8 points the opposite of Cramer's reccomendation. Just a theroy so please don't get mad if I'm wrong.

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement