Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

alstry (36.32)

Alstrynomics 2010 Trends

Recs

9

November 25, 2009 – Comments (28)

MASSIVE troop build ups by many nations around the world

UNPRECEDENTED declines in tax receipts

The LOWEST construction activity in America in the last 50 years

The HIGHEST commercial vacancy rates in the last 100 years

The LARGEST unemployment rate in American history.

The MOST bankruptcies ever.

.....all of the above and more if current Zombulation policies continue.

Other outlying trends that could surprise:

A rising dollar.

A crashing market.

Declining gold and silver prices in dollar terms.

28 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 25, 2009 at 9:34 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

alstry is usually correct but his other trends is WRONG

 

we are headed for a stagflation environment in 2010 .. an environment that puts MAXIMUM pain on the citizens of america...high unemployment , no growth of the private sector and massive inflation. b/c of all the debt monetization and increase of the money supply

 

as i told you people 130% increase in money supply , that is DOCUMENTED , who knows what the real % is with all the debt monetization and money printing unaccounted for.   this depression will NOT be like the 30's it will be FAR WORSE

 

Report this comment
#2) On November 25, 2009 at 9:35 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

well i should give him credit for crashing market...that is the ONLY Part that is correct

Report this comment
#3) On November 25, 2009 at 9:39 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

unfortunately for the government you cant' just make the dollar stronger b/c you want too.. there are WAY to many forces that are driving this dollar down to nothing.. and for someone that is "all knowing" like alstry at the very least i would expect you to be able to see this

Report this comment
#4) On November 25, 2009 at 9:51 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

velocity of money is what is keeping us from experiencing high inflation at the current moment..this WILL NOT continue forever and when the velocity of all the money starts to increase...rates will have to go up and most countries holding dollars will have already dumped them and what america is left with will be one of the saddest pictures of our time

Report this comment
#5) On November 25, 2009 at 10:05 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

no brilliant response???

Report this comment
#6) On November 25, 2009 at 10:07 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

Rebkong1

I dont know how much faster the velocity of money can get. I used to buy that argument but with the many online trading websites available to individual investers including some that focus on currencies coupled with large firms who invest tens of millions on dollars in servers to do rapid trades so they can make $0.01 on a transaction- not sure how much the velocity of money theory is relevant. 

I think the value of anything is either based on immediate survival or what you think the value of the item in question will be in the future.

Report this comment
#7) On November 25, 2009 at 10:08 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

wait maybe heatlchare and cap and trade will increase the the likelyhood of the dollar rising??

 

ha ha ha ha RIIIIIIGHT.. maybe that increase in government spending next year by 12 % from this year (which is 2.8 trillion *inflation adjusted dollars) which by the way is 1.TRILLION more than GEORGE BUSH EVER SPENT IN ANY ONE YEAR!! 

Report this comment
#8) On November 25, 2009 at 10:10 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

not sure how its relevant??

 

how about all that money that the banks have a plug in on their balance sheets that the FED is making them keep "in house" by giving them better rates to keep it PARKED WITH THEM than lending it out??

 

where is all that money going to go????

 

the bare bones minimal example you just gave is a joke of an argument sir...no offense 

Report this comment
#9) On November 25, 2009 at 10:11 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

we haven't even begun to see what the rush of money onto this system will look like yet...NOT EVEN CLOSE

Report this comment
#10) On November 25, 2009 at 10:19 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Re:

I understand your position.....and think it is very possible.  However, there is another possibility where the FED reverses QE and sucks dollars out of the system.

At this point it is a coin toss with the bias in your favor....let's see what happens......never discount the impact of war in your analysis, it is the single most important factor when it presents.

Report this comment
#11) On November 25, 2009 at 10:25 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

well the "current war" we are fighting, and the "current plan" released by Obama is only going to exacerbate the situation MORE in my favor.. 

A fed audit, which is becoming more likely than not will also only make this situation more likely..  the MASSIVE MANIPULATION from the fed to keep gold prices lower and the "real" figures on our current monetary policy...the TRUTH being told , while a good thing, will more than likely cause the currency crisis , we are inevitably headed for

 

im not sure what current fed policy or even war event that you can point to in past or forecast for the future that shows them "sucking anything out of this system" even if we had to go to war in a MAJOR WAY. it would inevitably end up in us printing MORE DOLLARS TO FUND IT 

Report this comment
#12) On November 25, 2009 at 10:35 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Re:

Let's say you own all the gold in the world valued at about $5 trillion dollars.....and I own a unranium enriched intercontinental ballistic missle with the capabilities of  delivering it upon your head.......

How much would you give me to stop me from engaging in such deplorable behavior.....

Welcome to high level trade talks.

PS:  the problem comes in if they have about a dozen motercycles with anthrax viles attached to the back located in the US and they choose to premptively negotiate....you may want to watch Jesse Ventura's show coming up.....it will give you a different perspective.

Report this comment
#13) On November 25, 2009 at 10:38 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

al:

 

in your first example, what about that scenario makes the dollar rise or gold prices fall??

 

and even in your second example... maybe im just having a brain cramp this morning...i still fail to see why this would impact the dollar to rise and gold or silver to fall?? but feel free to enlighten me 

Report this comment
#14) On November 25, 2009 at 10:43 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

the last place you want to be in this environment is in CASH , every single government and fed policy is doing EVERYTHING to destroy paper money... and for someone that is as smart as you have been in pointing out the obvious...how in the world you can recommend that to people is beyond me..and almost "fishy" if you ask me

Report this comment
#15) On November 25, 2009 at 10:48 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

In your example Alstry- i guess the thing that would be most valuable would be an adequate size of fertile land with shelter away from the fallout (missle or anthrax) that has access to clean water- probably a well- and also the means to protect your land. In your scenario- I'm not sure how you tax people if all of asset classes are worth nothing.

I think I have seen this movie before in hollywood.

Report this comment
#16) On November 25, 2009 at 10:53 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Re:

Now you are thinking.....you create new asset classes.

Do you think stocks and bonds existed 500 years ago....

Or paper money a thouasand years ago????

Buggy whips and hand held tilling equipment probably used to be an asset class.....now it is a good memory.

You are now playing the game at a much higher level than most can play at;)

Report this comment
#17) On November 25, 2009 at 10:58 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

i guess im still having a hard time seeing where the dollar rises and gold and silver fall in any of these environements..

even the creation of new asset classes (which i will agree will be a new event) what good is worthless paper gonna do you?? you still need someway to purchase and acquire these "new asset classes" and paper money won't be worth anything to do so 

Report this comment
#18) On November 25, 2009 at 11:01 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

maybe i could get me one of those newly printed trillion dollar bills when they come out like zimbabwe???

 

Report this comment
#19) On November 25, 2009 at 11:08 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

Lets have a little fun with your thought experiment- like my college philosophy classes. 

I would say every single person on this website has stocks, mutual funds, bank deposits, bonds, gold etf's, homes- we are so used to valuing something relative to some currency.

If all of a sudden a new major asset class develops- like government credits- i can imagine there would be some adjustments trying to exchange our old assets into the new ones if we could at all. Is that what you meant in previous blogs about convulsive change?

Report this comment
#20) On November 25, 2009 at 11:11 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

how about a new global currency "backed by all the resources of the WORLD" but what will the exchange rate of the dollar be to this "new currency" when its brought in to save america??

 

im guessing dollar holders will be awfully disappointed??

 

what say you?

 

Report this comment
#21) On November 25, 2009 at 11:16 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

there is no middle class where we are headed only the poor (slaves) and the rich (masters)

Report this comment
#22) On November 25, 2009 at 11:19 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

This is just for fun and I do not think they would every do this. Its just for Astrynomics.

I was thinking the US government, if it wanted to be sneaky, could say that 1 billion in t-bills now equals 1 government credit. If you want X- which is valueable to our creditors- you have to can only use government credits. ergo- debt decreases because if you want whatever X is which can only be purchased with credits- you have to tear up your treasuries. Its patriotism.

Report this comment
#23) On November 25, 2009 at 11:26 AM, alasker (< 20) wrote:

who knows- maybe you make 1 government credit equal to 50 billion dollars in treasuries. So if you have $45billion in treasuries already there is incentive for you to buy $5billion more just to get your credits.

Report this comment
#24) On November 25, 2009 at 11:50 AM, UKIAHED (34.26) wrote:

Do you think stocks and bonds existed 500 years ago....

 

Yep - I do.  Check out this stock from 1288 AD

 

Or paper money a thouasand years ago????

 

Yep - I do.  Lets get out of the western world and check out the date (140 BC) of the first known "paper" money.

 

or you could go with this quote:

"The trading of stocks ( shares ) and bonds actually began in ancient Babylon, where cuneiform documents representing loans to businesses and shares of interests in businesses and maritime expeditions actually traded hands."

History is cool - and replete with examples of "modern" ideas that are not quite as modern as we would like to believe...

 

Report this comment
#25) On November 25, 2009 at 12:23 PM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

uki,

You are dead on...but they really weren't an asset class as very few had the ability to possess them.

Report this comment
#26) On November 25, 2009 at 12:42 PM, AvianFlu (20.97) wrote:

Alstry:

It is already too late for the Fed to reverse QE. The horse is out of the barn. Plus, I don't think they plan to do that in any meaningful way. They lack the political will. Bernanke is no Paul Volcker.

As a point of interest, I am a multi-trillionaire. That is to say I recently acquired a Zimbabwe 50 trillion dollar federal reserve note. It cost me $7.50 at the local coin store. The cost to be a multi-billionaire instead was half that. It is a very pretty bill. Everyone should get one!

Report this comment
#27) On November 25, 2009 at 1:13 PM, UKIAHED (34.26) wrote:

You are dead on...but they really weren't an asset class as very few had the ability to possess them.

Very true - and a good point.

Report this comment
#28) On November 25, 2009 at 4:10 PM, Toburk (< 20) wrote:

How about some international news?

 Dubai may default on its debt, and the Russians have openly stated a policy of selling USD to buy CAD (exactly how much CAD is there around for a central bank to buy?)

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement