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alstry (36.08)

Alstrynomics Brings Fools War'O'Nomics

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November 25, 2009 – Comments (36)

Now War'O'Nomics is going mainstream:

Marc Faber, the Swiss fund manager and Gloom Boom & Doom editor, said eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end. Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to continued stimulus.

Speaking at a conference in Singapore on Wednesday, Faber said: "The crisis has not solved anything. On the contrary there is less transparency today than there was before. The government's balance sheet is expanding, and the abuses that have led to the one cause of the crisis have continued".

"I think eventually there will be a big bust and then the whole credit expansion will come to an end," Faber added.

"Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to stimulus".

In one of his Gloomiest predictions, Faber, referred to as Dr Doom, said "the average family will be hurt by that, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the governments will go to war".

"People ask me against whom? Well, they will invent an enemy," Faber said.

"At some stage, somewhere in future, we will have a war - that you have to be prepared for. And during war times, commodities go up strongly,” said Faber.

"If you want to hedge against war, you don't want to own derivatives in UBS and AIG, but you have to own them physically, like farmland and agricultural commodities. That is something to consider for you as a personal safety and hedge. You have to own some commodities," he added.

YOU THINK AMERICA CAN HAVE A NATION OF MILLIONS OF IDLE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE WITHOUT ALL HECK BREAKING LOOSE????  WELCOME TO ZOMBULATION NATION........

SOON IT WILL TIME FOR PANCAKES FOR ALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 25, 2009 at 1:04 PM, Rasbold (91.59) wrote:

Let's talk employment...the initial claims are decreasing and have been for a while now.

 

Are we on a skeleton crew? Are there no jobs left to shed and still function?

I want some intelligent address here...

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#2) On November 25, 2009 at 1:22 PM, alstry (36.08) wrote:

The numbers that were reported today were FIRST time claims....and still around 500,000.  That is a very high number as it has been this way for about a year. 

The difference now is very few are hiring as many are closing open positions so each job loss becomes more and more difficult to backfill.

The current employment rate simply reflects the current business volume, as more and more lose their jobs, it is inevitable business will slow going forward forcing even more job losses.

It is why my 50% unemployment projection is not only likely,  but probably conservative in a zombulation environment.

Many Fools think of it as doom and gloom, it is not.....it is just a massive convulsion for a society structured like ours.

War is always a good option for government because it can impose things on its population that it otherwise could never get away with.....for those with a strong global history background, it is always the easy way out for government.

And based on current trends and policies, that is likely where we are heading as our economy continues to shrink.

It is not the end of the world, simply the end of a world as you know it as we all sit down and eat pancakes.

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#3) On November 25, 2009 at 1:34 PM, dudemonkey (38.30) wrote:

At some stage, somewhere in future, we will have a war -

He really went out on a limb on that one.  Seems like anyone can make predictions these days, so without further ado I bring you ...

Dudemonkey's Glued Booed and Dude Report:

At some stage, somewhere in the future, the price of stuff will go up.  Or possibly down.

I think eventually there will be a big bust.  Likely involving Megan Fox.

The average family will be hurt by this, and then in order to distract the attention of the people, the media will come up with a new celebrity couple joint nickname. People ask me whom? Well, they will invent one.

There will be a new reality show.  I'm so sure of this, that I will say it will happen in 2010.  Put THAT in your pipe, Marc Faber's ambiguously dated predictions!

And now it's time for dudemonkey's ABSOLUTE BEST PREDICTION:

We're going to hear from OJ again.  I f**king PROMISE you that one.

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#4) On November 25, 2009 at 1:36 PM, dudemonkey (38.30) wrote:

Note that I called it the Glued Booed and Dude Report because the Glunkey Bunkey and Monkey Report didn't sound so good.  It sounds more like characters from Pac Man 2.

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#5) On November 25, 2009 at 1:37 PM, cubanstockpicker (21.16) wrote:

Rasbold, what happens as the numbers decrese as you say. Everyone of those people has a debt load that is not being paid. They also use services in their community without employment they wouldnt be able to participate in. Think of this, a family of four, wife and husband loses jobs. Wife finds employment faster since it is known women get the lower paying jobs and get hired quicker since they are less prone to ask for a raise. Not an opinion a proven fact. The financial market has a bending point, but under this weight and rate of fallout by defaulting it is a breaking point. Bt they will never to you.

Now on the job reporting, talk about massaging the numbers and being optimist because the rate of decline got smaller. The persistence of unemplyment will cuase problems.

Unemployment status is not given to a person unless he has absolutley no work not underemploment even when slashed to lass than 10 hours a week. Plus in order to be counted in the national data, his company would have to fit the bill of a larger organization that the government tracks.

Most business that employ most of the workforce do NOT REPORT these figures. Also, the reaosn we had such incredible exapnsion and growth was because construction caught a huge wave which drove the last bull before the(i love the way they call it the recession started in January). The fact is the recession started before that. The housing bubble was well on its way to being deflated, not in January but December of 07.not 08.

 During that period we had tons of small towns incorporating to take advantage of the taxes from real estate, so they can have their own police force, garbage services, etc...

What happens as these towns, whose economy was based solely on real estate expansion, cant collect taxes? Or a community without an economic driver? Everytime we see in the news about some large company shutting down and moving, how many of those townspeople end up going broke, permanantly and their cities depleted of any real employment?

What other economic driver do we have that will spur growth? Solar panels? Not enough, and too expensive that people are not willing to chunk the money down. Houses moved almost every sector. Finance, real estate, lawyers trhough title, homeowners insurance, PMI, raw materials, metals and even tool makers through the contractors.

Name me one economic driver that fed so many?

One other ghost in the machine, what about the people who are current on their homes, but can see that the Fed will help them even if they stop paying and their house is underwater a couple of hundred grand? WIll that mortgage keep getting paid?

 

Good blog alstry

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#6) On November 25, 2009 at 1:41 PM, cubanstockpicker (21.16) wrote:

Alstry, whats wrong with eating pancakes? Everyone loves pancakes.

Oh and keep it up, im going crazy with all the polyannas drinking the Kool aid and calling January the bottom.

As long as there is a Gramm, Leach and Bailey act of 1999 in full force, the markets are free to commit the same problems.

BTW, the lobbyists in charge of getting that bill pushed ahead were the same lobbyists that gave us ENRON.

 

Thanks WASHINGTON!

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#7) On November 25, 2009 at 2:27 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

FROM alstry's blog earlier today

Other outlying trends that could surprise:

A rising dollar.

A crashing market.

Declining gold and silver prices in dollar terms.

 

HIGHLIGHTS FROM TODAYS

 

 Before that happens, governments will continue printing money which in time will lead to a very high inflation rate, and the economy will not respond to continued stimulus."

 

"And during war times, commodities go up strongly,” said Faber."

 

last time i checked gold and sivler were in fact commodities.

 

and under this assumption of this new blog..doesn't seem to me like the dollar would be a good place to be

 

 

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#8) On November 25, 2009 at 2:28 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

so which is is alstry?

 

you have done a complete 180 degree turnaround today in your philosophy of 2010 

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#9) On November 25, 2009 at 2:29 PM, Rasbold (91.59) wrote:

Thanks, Cuban. Think I 'll smoke that MonteCristo now that gold is fixing to break 1200!!

 I understand the unemployment number, just want to see if we have reached a minimum utilization point to have the economy barely function. I am (was!) an electrical contractor here in Northern CA, which means I am out of business. Fortunately for me, I am a miner also, so I still have income, but EDD does NOT count me as unemployed because I was a business owner and paid not one nickel into my own UIB account during that time.

 The real dookie sandwich is getting eaten by ALL construction employees right now. We have had our Builder's Exchange close!! There is no new work, and existing projects are being idled. Nothing sucks harder than seeing a jobsite that should have 100 men all over it, only have a couple of project managers running around seeing if they can protect the site from vandals until the money comes back.

 

And it probably won't - That is why I am back in SCHOOL!!!

I am done with construction having run the length and breadth of that industry.

One more contractor gone....C-10 873388 gone forever!

 

Good Luck and May Your Dow Never Jones!

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#10) On November 25, 2009 at 2:32 PM, cubanstockpicker (21.16) wrote:

yes, i dont know why alstry has a hard up against gold, especially that now there is solid movement. But then again, why is everyone bullish about the end of recession, when gold is just now becoming the defacto invesmtnet hedge for everyone. We cant believe the markets will propel upward and gold will rise. On my metal picks, i picked underperform on all other non gold metals, since i believed that copper and alll other construction metals would decline in useage.

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#11) On November 25, 2009 at 2:38 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

hey big AL

 

i thought you were all about the TRUTH

 

why would you leave his last comment out of this article??

 

b]"I repeat what I have said in the past," Faber said. “No decent citizen should trust the Federal Reserve for one second. It’s very important that everyone own some gold because the government will make the dollar (in the long term) useless."[/b]

 

someone paying alstry off to put out the negative comments on gold ????

 

sure would seem like it

 

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#12) On November 25, 2009 at 2:40 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

seems like faber is arguing EVERYTHING that i did from earlier this morning

 

 

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#13) On November 25, 2009 at 2:50 PM, alstry (36.08) wrote:

Re:

My position from this morning remains consistent and simply diverges from Faber.  Sorry for omitting part of the article, no concealment was intended....as it is very easy to google the article.

If Gold is worth $1500 per ounce.....what is enriched uranium worth attached to a strong delivery system during time of war????  My guess is a lot more than all the gold in the world......factoring the caveats in my last blog.

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#14) On November 25, 2009 at 2:53 PM, chrisheck (76.51) wrote:

And it probably won't - That is why I am back in SCHOOL!!!

Rasbold,

And that's why you will probably succeed no matter how our economy changes. Instead of complaining about how unfair life is, you're doing something about it.

That makes you worth more than a 1000 ALSTRYs

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#15) On November 25, 2009 at 2:56 PM, cubanstockpicker (21.16) wrote:

 Rasbold

Lol, we have had the same pattern. There is no CONSTRUCTION in SOUTH FLORIDA< lets not even get to the ghost town we call port charlotte, port st lucie, ft myers and cape coral. 17 housing starts in october for all south florida. 17 housing starts? What the heck?

Anyways, glad this happened to me and glad to know I have a doppleganger in Cali doing the same thing. I have been in school a year already, gotten on deans list twice, I am happier now knowing that once i get my spanish citizenship, I can work in the EU. And this time I will be one of the rich bankers that took our money and ran. Im getting my degree in finance. Yes, I want everyone here to be angry at me one day for taking a 20 million dollar bonus for helping people go broke. I had made a 45,000 investment to open a green company, installing solar and applying spray foam insulation.

And I jut had to get 1000 dollars from my financial aid to pay for the now defunct asset sitting infront of my now in default home.

And you know what, I am the happiest I have been, thank the Lord for this recession, because, other than the negativity I put out here, I am doing everything in my power to not only climb but jump up the financial ladder.

Oh and also, everyone take note, nobody cares to count rasbold or myself in the unemployment figures, since like me he probably hired a small crew on a per day rate to finish jobs.

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#16) On November 25, 2009 at 2:56 PM, chrisheck (76.51) wrote:

hey big AL

 

i thought you were all about the TRUTH

 

why would you leave his last comment out of this article??.........................................

************************

Unfortunately, Alstry is the Michael Moore of bloggers.

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#17) On November 25, 2009 at 3:01 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

"If Gold is worth $1500 per ounce.....what is enriched uranium worth attached to a strong delivery system during time of war????  My guess is a lot more than all the gold in the world......factoring the caveats in my last blog."

 

well that's not at ALL what you implied earlier today...IN FACT you implied a rising dollar and FALLING gold and silver prices and have YET to provide any fundamental reasoning as to why this would be except to say "enriched uranium may be worth all the gold in the world during a time of war...THAT MAY BE SO but it still wont devalue gold or change the underlying fundamentals behind its value

and just for the record

1500 dollar gold is 25% increase from current levels 

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#18) On November 25, 2009 at 3:08 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

not to mention the fact , the for the "common man" that you sure portray yourself to "PROTECT".. with your PREPARE campaign.

 

and the last time i checked its a hell of a lot easier to buy some gold and silver than it is to get my hands on some enriched uranium or even think of a "strong delivery" system

 

PREPARE PEOPLE 

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#19) On November 25, 2009 at 3:17 PM, alstry (36.08) wrote:

Are you a citizen of the United States???

We the People own enriched Uranium....the same as We the People will be forced to turn over all our weath to government if it so demands and We the People will be forced to hand over our kids during a draft.

You and I are contemplating the value of gold against the dollar...we can simply agree to disagree....no more no less.

As you can tell from my blogging...there is not much fluff.  Look at my score and there are few on CAPS that beat it......AND I HAVE BEEN DEAD WRONG FOR THE PAST 9 MONTHS.......PROBABLY AS WRONG AS ANYONE ON CAPS FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF WHERE I THOUGH THE STOCK MARKET WAS GOING......but in your favor, I failed to account fully for the devaluation of the dollar......imagine what happens if I am right and things turn around?

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#20) On November 25, 2009 at 3:24 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

imagine if you could possibly state a case for how in the world the dollar could turn around...

 

if you could do that alstry you may have an argument .. but the fact is ..with the massive debt we  have and with current spending policies in place for the future YOU AND I BOTH KNOW the dollar can NOT turn around 

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#21) On November 25, 2009 at 3:27 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

thus we will be in a stagflationary depression, which will inflict the MAXIMUM pain on us , we the people.  

if you need a glimpse of what are things to come...go take a trip to argentina

 

unfortunately the dollar and its future movements will drive EVERYTHING and your failure to account for it in the past and IN THE FUTURE will be again why you are DEAD WRONG...learn from your mistakes alstry..you think you would have by now 

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#22) On November 25, 2009 at 3:29 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

oh preemptive post here

 

WAR WILL NOT make the dollar rise in this environment alstry...its only going to make us print more money 

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#23) On November 25, 2009 at 3:33 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

did you forget we dont produce anything over here anymore??

 

are we going to suddenly invent something in the next year that will employ millions and pay off all our debts and allow us to suck all that money out of the system with out completely imploding our existing economy??  oh ya wind and solar..how is that working out for us right now??  

 

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#24) On November 25, 2009 at 3:50 PM, cubanstockpicker (21.16) wrote:

rebkong, too late for that one. The banks are slowly releasing the foreclosed homes, so homes are sitting longer without being listed. If the banks right now were to close in on all foreclosed homes and put them for sale, we will have to institute martial law.

 

Dont believe for a second that the money for tarp is not being used to support this kind of "market manipulation".

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#25) On November 25, 2009 at 3:52 PM, cubanstockpicker (21.16) wrote:

On the dollar? Remember germany circa 1920s-1930s

 

 1 trillion marks would buy you some coal, or you can burn the worthless paper on a cold winter.

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#26) On November 25, 2009 at 3:53 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

exactly cuban.. the dollar is GONE!!

better get something for it while you can!!

 

but you can KISS IT GOOD BYE 

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#27) On November 25, 2009 at 3:56 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

(WAVING) 

 

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#28) On November 25, 2009 at 4:03 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

the passage of health care and cap and tax will be the final nails in this coffin

 

everyone should enjoy this holiday season..most likely the last "normal one" (what we have been accustomed to in years and years of the past)

 

life is about to be "fundamentally transformed"

 

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#29) On November 25, 2009 at 4:05 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

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#30) On November 25, 2009 at 4:09 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

the worst part of that video is that the sheeple actually cheer their demise

 

sad sad times 

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#31) On November 25, 2009 at 4:13 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

rebkong,

Faber's views presented in this article are long-term views.  He's noted in other interviews that he doesn't believe the hyperinflation he's predicting will hit for 10 years, and he's mentioned that the dollar could strengthen in between.  So, depending on the time frame, Alstry's different points aren't necessarily contradicting.

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#32) On November 25, 2009 at 4:16 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

dave 

 

if the dollar has any sort of "rally" it will be through manipulation of the fed or the government....with EVERYTHING that is going on behind the scenes to destroy its very presence...any rally will be short-lived 

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#33) On November 25, 2009 at 4:19 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

I'm still waiting for alstry to present his case "FUNDAMENTALLY" as to how in the world the dollar turns around

 

that goes for ANY ONE OUT THERE.. im waiting to hear a logical case for it 

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#34) On November 25, 2009 at 4:24 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

the ship has been sailed and DRASTIC and i mean DRASTIC measures would have to happen to stop it..i.e. iceberg hitting the titanic 

 

i mean we just uncovered that global warming is a FRAUD and total manufactured made up scam by the IPCC.. and do you know how many major networks are even reporting on it??

 

ZERO

 

writing is on the wall people, unless DRASTIC MEASURES for DRASTIC TIMES TAKE PLACE 

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#35) On November 25, 2009 at 4:46 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

rebkong,

I agree with you on the long term fate of the dollar.  I could see the Fed hiking rates dramatically once we reach some point that they view as a breaking point...who knows what that point would be for the Fed, but this could cause a short-lived surge in the dollar relative to other currencies, and a crash in the stock market...if this played out, you might expect the price of gold to fall, but gold could be propped up by money fleeing the stock market.  At some point, the dollar will be worthless, but I don't think it's going to be next year.  Also, if/when we do see real hyperinflation, the stock market is not going to surge...at least not right away.  The stock market will tank as the dollar tanks.

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#36) On November 25, 2009 at 4:52 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

actually dave

 

what you described would be the beginning of stagflation which is what i have argued prior is the direction we are headed like a runaway locomotive

we will have inflationary monetary conditions combined  deflationary market conditions  

 

 

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