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alstry (35.46)

Alstrynomics Flu 4 You

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April 27, 2009 – Comments (5)

Mexico City has a population of about 20 million people.

Alstry guesses that about 1000 people die per day simply under normal statisical conditions.

In any given week that would be about 7000 people.

Some weeks more some weeks less and my guess is a bunch of them normally die from the flu around this time of the year.

This past week it appears that about 60-100 people died from the flu.  I am unaware of anyone else who has died anywhere else in the industrialized world.

My guess is that over 100 people PER HOUR die from some disease in Africa.  My guess is MORE than than 60-100 have died in America as a direct result of the Economic Implosion.

So if you want to focus on the flu....please don't let me stop you......however....if you want to put it into mathematical perspective.....my suggestion is take two aspirins and call your doctor in the morning.

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 27, 2009 at 8:26 AM, alstry (35.46) wrote:

NOW THIS IS SOMETHING TO CONCERN YOURSELF OVER!!!

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The global financial crisis could become "a human and development calamity" for many poor countries, the World Bank said, urging donor nations to speed delivery of money they have pledged and consider giving more.

Developing countries, its main constituency, face "especially serious consequences with the crisis driving more than 50 million people into extreme poverty, particularly women and children," the bank said Sunday.

Bank President Robert Zoellick said some of the poorest economies are being hit by "second and third waves of the crisis." He said no one knows how long it will last or when recovery will begin.

"There is a widespread recognition that the world faces an unprecedented economic crisis, poor people could suffer the most and that we must continue to act in real time to prevent a human catastrophe," Zoellick said.

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#2) On April 27, 2009 at 8:32 AM, wrparks (65.76) wrote:

Sure, it's no big deal now.  But, the question is, what does it have the potential to become.  There are great corollaries between the financial crisis and a potential pandemic flu. 

 

Basically, ignoring either one at the outset makes things worse.  Humanity is due for another pandemic flu.  Is this the one?  Probably not, but that doesn't mean you should stick your head in the sand.

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#3) On April 27, 2009 at 8:40 AM, alstry (35.46) wrote:

Nobody is saying ignore it.  Simply put it into mathematical perespective.  Ask yourself.....Is what is happening statisically significant? 

That is what Alstrynomics is all about.....putting things into mathematical perpsective.

30-50% Unemployment.....Now that is statistically significant!!!!

We are already at OVER 16%........Spain is almost 20%....that is an epidemic.....not a few people catching the flu.

Now when 1/2 of 1% of the population catches the flu.....I will put it into perspective.......right now the number is less than 1/10,000 of 1%.

 

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#4) On April 27, 2009 at 8:46 AM, alstry (35.46) wrote:

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!  BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MADRID – Spain's Health Ministry confirmed the country's first case of swine flu on Monday

Not so breaking news.....millions upon millions of Spaniards are now unemployed with little hope of getting jobs in the future causing unrest, agitation, depression and despair for a large percentage of the population.

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#5) On April 27, 2009 at 8:53 AM, wrparks (65.76) wrote:

Statistically significance is laughable.  I once had a statistics professor explain significance in laymans terms.  Essentially, he said something is statistically significant if it is detectable.

 So, is the swine flu statistically significant?  Yes, people are dead, and it is quite easy to detect the cause as the swine flu, even with the myriad background noise of regular deaths.  

 Come now Alstry, as a constant pormoter of fear, certainly the swine flu is another chance to preach more doom and gloom.

Plus, using your logic is what gets us to the point we are now economically.  Let say that some bright analyst noticed the risk in the derivitives market @ say 1% of it's current level and we did something to stop it.  Yep, sounds like it could have been a good idea to me, as long as the solution wasn't a bigger problem.  Catching major problems early is always a good idea.

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