Alstrynomics Job Cut Analysis
• Job-cut announcements hit a painful 1.2 million over course of 2008
Remember, Alstrynomics seeks the practical application of Economics. We know that 1.2 million Job-Cuts were announced in 2008. Generally, these cuts are at major corporations that are end the end of the line of the production or service process. For everyone of these employees, there are probably at least 5 or 10 others through the vendor support system.
Thus, if 1.2 million cuts were ANNOUNCED.....rest assured, the numbers of jobs cut that were silent was probably 5X to 10X that number. My estimation is that approximately 10,000,000 American's have lost their jobs in the last couple years. Add that to the systematic unemployment rate of about 5% and we should be well over 10% unemployment right now.
Then factor in all those people who have had pay cuts, furloughs, and demotions who can no longer meet their monthly subsistence payment obligations.....and we are probably looking at well over 15-20% functional unemployment right now.
My expectation is that these numbers will double or triple over the course of the upcoming year. You will see the layoff numbers getting larger and larger and spreading into industries not currenly affected. Remember, each time you see a layoff notice, there is some multiple of others likely also getting released at the same time.
Again, we havn't even factored in the spouses, who were previously not counted as unemployed, who will be forced to reenter the workforce to supplement the family income and now will be considered unemployed until they find a job.
30% unemployment is in the bag if we don't restructure.........or go to war.