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alstry (36.32)

Alstrynomics versus the Techno Fairies

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March 11, 2009 – Comments (14)

It has become clear to me that the real animosity toward Alstry comes not from his sharp witted ascerbic attitude that sees the fundementals clearly and likes to stand up for truth, justice, and the US Constitution.....but the anger is derived from a fundemental difference in philosophy between technical analysis and fundemental analysis.

Those that understand and practice Alstrynomics are well aware that its principles are grounded with a strong fundemental base.  It is why Alstry remains steadfast to his positions for such long periods of time and against strong opposition with a character that doesn't blow with the wind like the Techno Fairies.

Tonight, based on the comments that I have read....it has become much easier for me to understand how the Techno Fairies sometimes come off as flip floppers and irrational to me.....it is not that I am necessarily right or wrong.....or vice versa, it is simply this is my perspective of their behavior from my observations.

It would seem to me that it would be very difficult to achieve long term success when one day you are hot and the next day cold to ever hold a consistent position on just about anything.....not limited to simply investments.

Please note, Alstrynomics doesn't dismiss technical analysis completely as evidenced by its emerging work with limited success on the Techno Trance Spector Vector theories and applicatons.  However, without fundementals being the foundation of one's analytics, it seems that whatever investment thesis you build, without a strong foundation, it could blow over even with the slightest wind opposite your belief.

It is not that one system is necessarily better than the other, both can serve complimentary to the end result of improved returns and scoring points in CAPs.  But those that practice technical analysis exclusively sure seem to have little tolerance to face any headwind of any significance.  I should know because I have seen it in CAPs, read about it in various publications, and observed it in the market itself by the behavior.

Unfortunately, the markets throw strong headwinds at investors all the time....and often unexpectedly.  If one is going to shift direction each time the wind blows....it sure seems like a recipie for potential disaster form this perspective as one is always seeming chasing his or her tail.  However, if one thinks he can anticipate the changes at each directional inflection, if successful, he should earn enough money to buy the entire universe in a relatively short period of time.

The only thing I know for sure is that I am unaware of any Tehcnical Analysis focused Billionaires....but I can rattle off a bunch of fundemental billionaires....but there are even fewer of them as of recent.  For a while there I thought it was me and my personality.....but now I know it is simply the Techno Fairies blowing in the wind depending on what time of the month it may be....

I promised Jake to never attack any blogger personally, regardless of their position....I may disagree with their investments or methodolgy, but I will never make it personal.  All I ask is you do the same to me and refrain from the personal attacks like TRDH, Donner, and Goodvibe, RonChapmanJr, and many others have consistently leveled against me.  It is not that I mind really, but if I am going to be cold cocked in the face while I am not looking, I would at least like to be able to defend myself....doesn't that seem reasonable and fair????

You don't have to be mean to Alstry just because we have a philosophical difference.  As a matter of fact, because of you Fairies, I have started Techno Trance Analysis which has made me a lot of money.  For that I extend my most sincere thanks....and so do my kids, wife, and friends who have benefitted.

This could be one of the most useful blogs I have ever written.  It really goes to the core of understanding the primary two schools of investment style....technical analysis versus fundemental analysis and the potential complimentary relationship between the two  Just because Alstry may be rapidly becoming one of the best at both with evolving Alstrynomics.....it doesn't mean you have to level insults at him.......

Instead of insulting you directly.....Alstry will demonstrate his skills and talents on the field.  You can call Alstry all the names you want and try to deflect the focus from the core goal......which is investors helping investors to become better investors which is most effectively done by teaching investors how to score more points on their own.....after all, in its essence, isn't that what CAPs is all about and how one beats Wall Street?

I hope this clarifies things for some of you....for others there is probably no hope....but let me leave you with this....in law school and in the practice of law we learned how to distill the FACTS into an actionable end.  The KEY was to make sure you got the FACTS right.  From this perspective, success in investing is not too much different.....you NEED to get the FACTS right.  There is lots of noise and distractions out there cloudying up the FACTS......once you learn how to see through them, you will be well on your way to being a solid practicioner of Alstrynomics and hopefully see better investment returns in your future.

I have little doubt that Alstry will be able to provide an excellent real life CAPs example of distinguishing FACTS from noise below.....as you are now playing in Alstry's House, may I respectfully remind you....Alstry is prepared for whatever the Techno Fairies throw blow way.

Finally, an important post dealing with the two schools of investment styles....

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 11, 2009 at 2:09 AM, BenGriffin71 (28.24) wrote:

I look forward to reading what you post.  I appreciate your viewpoint and was disapointed when you were banishedeven for a short period.  This is no personal attack.  Just a query (and maybe a small ribbing). 

You wrote:

>>>'...the real animosity toward Alstry comes not from his sharp witted ascerbic attitude that sees the fundementals clearly....'<<<</em>

 .....is it your attitude that 'sees the fundamentals'...

..  or

.....some reactions to what you see in the fundamentals, that provoke your attitude ?

 

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#2) On March 11, 2009 at 3:31 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

That is a good question....my guess is that it is a little bit of both which leads me to connections which vectors out into even more connections and occasionally even I get surprised with the results.

Maybe it is my thirst for liking to solve riddles or maybe it is a good bloody mary....who knows exactly at this time of the morning.

My question that I am pondering now is whether Technical Analysis can actually be a contagious disease ???

For example, there is a new blogger TSIF who recently published a blog satiring recommendations and got 55 recomendations .  DareReDux also did a recent blog about ZOMBIE caps accounts and recomendations which got 49 recommendations. And then there is this blogger Mary953 that seems to blog consistently with the above two bloggers back and forth at odd times of the day and takes on a similar attitude creating illusions of coincidence.  At one point, it even put doubts in Alstry's head about the independence of these bloggers.

For the purposes of this blog let's call them techno fairies that seem to blow with the wind......and they all like to make fun of Alstry and Alstrynomics.  It is one thing to make fun of Alstry, for better or worse, he invites a bit of jabbing and likes the competitive environment. 

But to go after abitare who may be occasionally less than perfect, however, a fine Fool nonetheless, peaked my scientific curiosity about whether technical analysis taken in its pure form without the benefit of fundementals is actually a sickness and dangerous to one's investing aptitude and investment health?

Well it seems that the evidence is mounting that it may be potentially inhibiting free and independant thought.  For example, what is the liklihood that three indpendent thinking investors from three different parts of the nation woujld all have the EXACT SAME following symbols in their portfolio:

GRMN, RYL, DRYS, SBUX, OSTK, and DWSN????

Statistically, once you factor all of the symbols available to CAPS members and the fact that all three of these players have only been playing and blogging actively for a relatively short period of time...basically since November or so even though each, in one identity or another, has been a regisitered CAPs member for a number of years, would likely be very low that ALL six symbols would be common among the three players accounts.

All three randomly having the same six symbols in their portfolio in such a short period of time is an amazing coincidence save the fact that Technical Analysis is a disease which spreads among those it contacts without regard to investment health.

I know you might respond by saying, wait a second Alstry, the above are pretty common symbols and are likely in most CAPs players portfolios in one form or another.  But all Six?????  in all three players portfolios?????

Now what if we were to throw in some not so common symbols in the mix like:

FNXMF.PK, VOHO.DL, and PXCE.OB.  Then what would you say about technical analysis without the benefit of fundemental analysis and its propensity to spread amongst its followers.

How many CAPs players do you think have those exact same 9 symbols in their portfolios??????  How many active bloggers????  How many that have recently started playing????

Interesting questions indeed... which may lead one to investigate further whether technical analysis without the benefit of fundementals is in fact a disease clouding one's judgment for independent and reasoned thought???

In this light, with this group think mentality, it makes abitare's allegations seem not so far fetched after all....not necessarily accurate.....simply not so far fetched especialy since our favorite vibrating blogger maintains a lot of overlapping symbols with the above three and he too has been a member in one identity or another for the past few years and only started blogging recently.

As you lay out the FACTS....the liklihood that Technical Analysis is a contagious something or other seems to be supported by the evidence.  It also helps explain my confusion when I blogged this a couple months ago to Mary....

Again, please accept my applogy as your trading style mirrored Dare's and FBs almost perfectly.  Not only that, you and Dare had dozens of symbols that were exactly the same out of less 150 choices.  It was simply a confluence of coincidences that crossed in the night and blinded me in the darkness.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=127402&t=01002130057764754273

It helps explain my and abitare's blogs and the potential for technical analysis to infect and cloud our otherwise focused judgment.  I can see no other explanation.......at this point, the evidence only points to some kind of contagious virus or something similar spreading rapidly through Fooldom.

Your witnesses Techno Fairies....

 

 

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#3) On March 11, 2009 at 4:00 AM, PrestonCheek (32.61) wrote:

I don't know about witnesses Al, but one of them bloody marys would do me well about now. Though I don't think Exxon would like it very much. :)

I will say this, I rec'd your blog earlier but didn't have the time to comment, I think this was a very decent and civil rant by you and thanks for no direct name calling. Abitare's blog though was demoralizing to some people I'm sure, it kinda made me think of my score and I along with other people are new to trading and are still trying to learn. When you accuse people of lying, and calling them Zombies I guess that kinda hurts.

I have enjoyed the vibrations, as you say, and I think some of the jealousy is pittiful and becoming of some good fools. Don't you really think that GV really caught the eye of a certain inexperienced crowd and moved them in a good direction, a lot of people that normaly just reads and all of a sudden was asked their opinions and welcomed, how could that not be possible.

I replied to several top fools and because I wasn't known never recieved nothing back, I do understand that most people do not like to give advice because of the liability, but GV did step out and give direct advice and I think that give a confidence that some were looking for.

Al, please don't take your gloves off on me because I have to use a dictionary to look up some of your words, I know you are a very intelligent individual, I only commented here because you seem to have a open mind in this blog.

I hope you don't have a hangover tomorrow because we have serious trading to do. :)

Preston 

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#4) On March 11, 2009 at 8:30 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

More Inflation???

Vail Resorts to cut salaries by 2.5% to 10%

If practically every company in America is either cutting workers and/or wages.....how can we project inflation in the foreseeable future???

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#5) On March 11, 2009 at 8:49 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Even More Inflation this Morning.....

[BLC] Belo Corp. to cut management salaries by 5%

This salary deflation seems to be spreading just like the techno fairies.....crazy times........

Not a word from Mary, Dare, or TSIF or the rest of the or the rest of the fairy crew to defend their team....what do you think the statistical liklihood of so many prolific bloggers ALL stop blogging at the same time for so long is a ramdom event?????

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#6) On March 11, 2009 at 8:56 AM, PrestonCheek (32.61) wrote:

Well I guess you know I'm ok then. By the way I'm having a beer now. How about Citi and other banks cooking their books, I can't believe that anybody would buy into that.

Where do you get your information from, could you give me some links or any other sites that I can go to.

Any help you can give me for that matter would be appreciated.

Preston

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#7) On March 11, 2009 at 9:05 AM, bubabar (< 20) wrote:

If i had to venture a guess why no one has blogged . It would be that your act has worn thin, and your just flat out boring. Start with losing the third man schtick and work from there. Just a suggestion.

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#8) On March 11, 2009 at 9:07 AM, 4everlost (29.61) wrote:

alstry

Keep up the good work.  I get a real laugh out of reading your posts.  They are an amusing combination of an interesting investment style, nice sarcasm, bravado and martyrdom.  I'll read most of what you write.

 

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#9) On March 11, 2009 at 9:22 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

4ever,

If you can think of a few additional qualities Alstry can adapt, he is very flexible......as to personality and drinks of choice but not investment style or character.

Alstry always defends the weak and protects liberties afforded by the Constitution of the USA......no matter how hard the Techno Fairy Industrial Complex comes at Alstry.....

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#10) On March 11, 2009 at 9:54 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Preston,

I am not sure where you can find credible information anymore in an easy to obtain public forum.....most things that had crediblity in the past from my perspective are no longer reliable.

However, that said....with even less crediblity due to the infancy of its development, the spector vectors are really jumping this morning.....there is a strong emotional desire for those little ghostly creatures to fly through the roof and break any resistance levels but I have never seen so many reflectors converging to prevent potential topside moves. 

And if you get a concentrated push to the topside which gets repelled by the reflectors the dual carb injector accellerators kick in and we could see double what my previous projection yesterday of 500 points to the downside and actually break 6000.

Right now my money is on the reflectors, but those nasty buggers are quick and they want to play on the top floors....we shall see if Alstry's revised call for 1000 points to the down side kicks in over the next few weeks.

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#11) On March 11, 2009 at 11:12 AM, Schmacko (47.87) wrote:

"Statistically, once you factor all of the symbols available to CAPS members and the fact that all three of these players have only been playing and blogging actively for a relatively short period of time...basically since November or so even though each, in one identity or another, has been a regisitered CAPs member for a number of years, would likely be very low that ALL six symbols would be common among the three players accounts."

This was an interesting point especially when you brought up the pinksheet, ob, and delisted stock.  I was thinking I could probably come up with six to nine ultra ETFs and stock symbols that are in a lot of top players portfolios and that obviously doesn't mean you're the same person or infected by group think.  I think what you're seeing is probably people just copying the picks of a top player without giving them much individual thought.  I still see "pitches" written by players stating they are making the pick soley because some top rated player also picked it.  Doesn't mean that's the case with the people you mentioned but it is a plausable explanation.

Good post today btw.  

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#12) On March 11, 2009 at 11:29 AM, alstry (36.32) wrote:

Schmacko,

I am trying to create an intelligent dialogue between fundemental analysts and technical analysts.  Believe it or not, there were few who were as pure a fundemental analyst as Alstry before coming to CAPs.......but by combining the two I have become much more effective.

Objectively you can see the improvement by my score because I was still at zero six months into the game into last summer even though the market was falling the entire time...especially the homebuilders where I was concentrated into....but now by combining the two, I seem to be able to harvest significantly higher returns.

Whether this can be carried into the future is unknown at this time...but it seems to work for now....

As far as the coincidences above, it goes far beyond stock selection of symbols, and even selection of less popular names, the coincidences parralel in trading style, length of time playing the game, manner which they identify themselves personally as being newer investors, and a number of other metrixes which lead me to believe that technical analysis may in fact be infectous.

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#13) On March 11, 2009 at 11:47 AM, jesusfreakinco (29.03) wrote:

Al,

I agree with your thoughts on TA.  TA is for wimps in this market.  The TA rules are being thrown out the door and fundies rule the day.  The snap back rally yesterday could get wiped out in a day with some bad news.

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#14) On March 11, 2009 at 12:10 PM, Schmacko (47.87) wrote:

TA I think can still be useful for setting entry and exit points for specific equities even if you're doing your picking on a mainly fundamental basis. 

I also think TA vs fundies is a lot of time a short term vs. long(er) term investing style.  If you look at some of GMX's or goodvibes posts they're making picks for the next day or few weeks, sometimes a month for some of GMX's option picks, but generally pretty short term.  Alstry has a more negative fundamental view on the economy and is holding his bearish picks for longer time frames.  A lot is going to come down to your personal investment style or choices.  I also don't think the two are necesarily mutually exclusive.  You can have core long term holdings but still find equities that you think will move big in the short term that are valid plays.

 

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