Alstrynomics Vs. Economics....Again
As some of you may know, Scott Grannis is an experienced Economist with an excellent Economics blog at www.scottgrannis.blogspot.com. Scott is in the Larry Kudlow optimistic camp.... and your truly, well some things speak for themselves.
Today Scott posted a blog indicating that container export volume was up at the L.A. and Long Beach ports and I challenged his thesis that this was a sign of the economy recovering....again......at http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2009/07/us-exports-are-rebounding-4.html
Here's an updated version of a chart I've shown before, using June data for container exports from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and goods exports through May. Things haven't bounced quite as much as I was expecting. However, I do think it's clear from this chart that the free-fall in global trade which began in the fourth quarter of last year has at the very least stopped, and has reversed to some degree. On a year over year basis, outbound LA container shipments were down only 9% in June, whereas they were down 29% last December.
The comments to Scott's Blog went as follows....I bet many of your can relate to Ryan:
Do you know the contents of the containers???
As you know, the #1 and #2 exports by container from the U.S. is trash....scrap paper and scrap metal respectively.
I wish I could meet you in person so that I could punch you in the face.
Can you take a hint? People are getting tired of your constant posts. Mr. Grannis takes an inordinate amount of time to research and post his comments; we are all very grateful for what he does and how he shares his opinions with those that care to read -- and learn.
Frankly, if I want your opinions, I'll head over to your blog and read. Quit hijacking this blog.
Oh, and to save Scott the time, I'll comment that if scrap paper and metal exports are up, that's good, as that means there's higher production and/or demand of these 'commodities' and that means the economy is picking up.
Scott is a very talented economist. He plays at a much higher level than most can even hope to achive.
If Scott can't defend his positions against Alstry and Alstrynomics, clearly that would be a sad day for Economics.
That said, in addition to being an attorney, I was the CIO for a transportation company, you think I know a thing or two about the nature of U.S. exports?
Just to be serious for a second.
Many Economists cite Exports as an economic indicator.....but most economists don't realize that America's key export is trash.
As a percentage of container volume, trash is so high that using export container volume as an economic indicator is not much better than the contents.
FWIW, recyc papyer prices are up recently and could explain the higher volume.
The following are cites to a couple articles:
To be really serious,
If you notice, LA container traffic was much better than Long Beach, looking at the second link I provided, you would see that waste paper was piling up due to depressed pricing in the Winter.
Prices picked up recently which helps explain the pick up in L.A. relative to Long Beach.
Hopefully this clarifies things a bit.