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alstry (35.74)

Alstrynomics Warned You!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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March 11, 2009 – Comments (24)

2:00 p.m.

Budget deficit widens 10% as receipts fall to 14-year low

2:00 p.m.

U.S. Feb. budget deficit 2nd highest monthly gap ever

2:00 p.m.

U.S. Feb. individual income tax receipts at 24-year low

2:00 p.m.

U.S. Feb. tax receipts plunge to 14-year low

2:00 p.m.

U.S. budget deficit year-to-date record $765 billion

2:00 p.m.

U.S. Feb. budget deficit widens 10% to $192.7 billion

Early last year I was warning you that budget receipts to local, state, and Federal government was evaporating.  We are now tangibly seeing the effects of all the job losses, wage cuts, and declining incomes of individuals and corporations accross America that I was blogging about day after day.  As credit  contracts  further, the problems will only get worse as more and more can't spend and business slows further and values of just about everything crash.

We are seeing the evidence get clearer and clearer everyday.  More and more companies are cutting benefits, reducing wages, and eliminating large percentages of their workforce altogether.  There is nothing fun about this or its effect on our people.....it truly sucks and is likely to get worse.

As more and more workers get pay cuts and lose their jobs, as more and more business see sales slows and profits erode, revenues to government are going to continue to contract.  Until we purge the debt out of the system......it seems from this perspective that it is contraction as far as the eye can see.......please don't dispair.....try to prepare.

TRDH said this blog was "dribble"....pretty soon we will all be dibbling trying to figure out where our cities and states are going to raise money to pay for essential services.  If you don't think this relates to investing and corporate earnings......then please enjoy this rally....it is likely to be very short lived.

24 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 11, 2009 at 3:57 PM, kaskoosek (74.14) wrote:

Alstry

Inflationary camp is calling you.

What do you think will happen if Government spends, but does not tax. Currency collapse. 

Hard assets are the wat to go.

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#2) On March 11, 2009 at 4:10 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

CAN ANYONE SAY DOW 1000????????

U.S. Feb. individual income tax receipts at 24-year low

Nobody overstates or lies about too much income to the IRS....

Since at the end of the day, the market is only worth some multiple of its earnings.........anyone want to guess what the DOW was at 24 years ago!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You think that is inflationary as wages are being slashed, companies going bankrupt, and few can afford much of anything???

 

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#3) On March 11, 2009 at 4:14 PM, biotechmgr (35.41) wrote:

The cycle of deflation continues and will feed off itself as you state. The current bounce will be relatively small in short covering, then most are likely to be shocked when the decline continues.

There are missing statistics when people cite the hyped up potential for inflation. Most people just do not have the information needed to make this judgment. I saw a statistic from Elliott Wave which showed the rate of turnover of money has slowed dramatically. So even though many think "gov printing money = inflation", that money or phantom money is not really making its way into the economy. So while asset prices get crushed in a deflation, the majority will keep believing in inflation. Then they won't, and will despair, throw up hands, sell it all including their gold they will believe in until the end, and that will truly be the bottom.

This is a deflation, most asset prices will decline on average by 90% (I will grant that gold may not decline by this much, if not seized by government again).

 

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#4) On March 11, 2009 at 4:23 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

biotech,

You sound like me....are you sure you aren't me????

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#5) On March 11, 2009 at 4:32 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.95) wrote:

Buffet, PIMCO calling for massive inflation

I am not believing the delation argument and neither are Bill or Warren.  Got gold?

JFC

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#6) On March 11, 2009 at 4:38 PM, Seano67 (30.93) wrote:

Alstry, you are a great, great American. :o)

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#7) On March 11, 2009 at 5:21 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

Hey thanks....you don't know how good that makes me feel.

Just curious....are you a techno fairy????

You are the best!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#8) On March 11, 2009 at 5:26 PM, SuperPicks (29.04) wrote:

jesusfreakinco

That is what I'm most wary of.  Laymen that I've met here and there, who read financial articles and/or still employed in some business related role boast about how much inflation we will see in the next year and how much the dollar is going to be trashed.

Concurrently Buffet and PIMCO, two very well-followed mainstream figureheads that support this notion.  Also recently, Ben Bernanke has joined fueling this idea.

The contrarian in me suggests there is way too much expectation & sentiment over high increases of inflation & a weakening of the dollar.

 

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#9) On March 11, 2009 at 5:27 PM, Seano67 (30.93) wrote:

A techno fairy? No, I despise techno. Those pounding, repetitive drum machines tend to give me a headache, plus I find the music tedious and monotonous in the extreme. Maybe if I were a raver or an ecstasy kid, but no. Not a fan...

And a fairy? I think not! Not that there's anything wrong with that. Just not my cuppa tea.

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#10) On March 11, 2009 at 5:28 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

ANOTHER ALSTRY WARNING HITTING THE PRESS

Remember when Alstry was debating this issue with a blogger which we shall not name whose name is the most Sourthern State in America plus the word builder.

Now making headlines in  the WSJ:

Foreclosed Houses Haunt Home Builders

As the normally hot spring selling season begins, two houses in the Inland Empire region of Southern California sum up the big problem facing many of the nation's largest home builders.

One of the houses, a four bedroom built in 2006 that was seized by a lender in a foreclosure action, is listed for sale at $229,900. Meanwhile, in the same housing development, D.R. Horton Inc. is trying to sell a new house that looks nearly identical for $299,000, or 23% more.

Or consider Pulte Homes Inc.'s predicament in Henderson, Nev., near Las Vegas. The builder is trying to sell a new, four-bedroom house for $214,990, while a home owner is trying to dump a similar house, which Pulte built two years ago, for $149,999. That price is less than the owner's mortgage under a "short sale" approved by the lender.

In many markets, "we are no longer competing with other builders. We are competing with foreclosures," said Steve Ruffner, president of the Southern California division of KB Home.

Haunting Homebuilders????  Sounds like Spector Vectors to me;)

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#11) On March 11, 2009 at 5:30 PM, Seano67 (30.93) wrote:

You are the best!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

No, no, no.....you are!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hahaha. :)

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#12) On March 11, 2009 at 5:32 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

Seano,

Just so we make things clear at the outset because I have little doubt this may grow into a much bigger issue....

Fairy is being used under the common definition identifying those little people that fly generally in packs and blow in the wind.

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#13) On March 11, 2009 at 5:35 PM, Seano67 (30.93) wrote:

Ah ok, like Tinkerbell or the Tooth Fairy you mean? Nah, not one of those either, though it would be damn convenient and a hell of a lot of fun to be able to fly through the air like that.

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#14) On March 11, 2009 at 5:38 PM, greattrader1011 (29.53) wrote:

Alstry, you are suck a doom-and-gloom'er.

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#15) On March 11, 2009 at 5:38 PM, greattrader1011 (29.53) wrote:

such.

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#16) On March 11, 2009 at 5:45 PM, 119862913 wrote:

ALSTRY, keep thumpin' those econ books and fundamentals!!! You are the best!!!

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#17) On March 11, 2009 at 5:47 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

And you are a First Class Techno Fairy....what is the big deal.

And as far as doom and gloomer....it depends on your definition.....

Do I like to party and have a good time....absolutely.

Do I think the Dow is going to drop below 1000 and unemployment is going much higher than 20%?....absolutely.

Now what is your excuse for being a Techno Fairy?????  Please explain how you all seem to pick the same obscure symbols accross such a wide section of identies?

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#18) On March 11, 2009 at 5:50 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

ImOutta,

It is so nice to have Non Techno Fairys blogging on this site....do you think we should make Alstry's blog a Techno Fairy free zone????

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#19) On March 11, 2009 at 6:20 PM, 119862913 wrote:

Alstry, I didn't know what a techno fairy was before reading this blog string. I can't say I'm qualified to comment other than to say we should be free to say whatever it is we feel like and let the audience decide whether it deserves any credence or not.

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#20) On March 11, 2009 at 6:31 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

Actually, to get a better perspective of a Techno Fairy you should read the previous blog...especially the comment where I give a clearer definition.

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#21) On March 11, 2009 at 8:50 PM, jimmybroderick (< 20) wrote:

alstry,

Do you think Dow 1000 will be a quick process or take a long time to unravel?   That is a scary proposition, but as I've been reading your archive have realized it ain't so bad if you're prepared.

Thanks

Jim

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#22) On March 11, 2009 at 9:04 PM, FeastOrFamine46 (99.28) wrote:

"Remember when Alstry was debating this issue with a blogger which we shall not name whose name is the most Sourthern State in America plus the word builder."

Hawaiibuilder! No, wait...

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#23) On March 11, 2009 at 9:06 PM, alstry (35.74) wrote:

My instinct is we will get to whereever we are going quicker than many currently perceive.  How long exactly will be a function of government policy.

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#24) On March 11, 2009 at 9:17 PM, biotechmgr (35.41) wrote:

Alstry,

Let us establish that I am not you, lest we begin a new conspiracy theory a la the GoodVibe fun club.

I'm just another mega-bear here who had the fortune of seeing potential trouble, doing some serious research beginning in early 2007 on this asset bubble, then side-stepping the trouble and even profiting from it.

Keep carrying that banner so those who can hear reason may avoid a total personal financial disaster.

Biotechmgr

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