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alstry (35.39)

Alstrynomics...One Year Later

Recs

17

January 06, 2009 – Comments (9)

A little less than a year ago, I started blogging on CAPs warning that our Ecomomy was going to be  facing a Tsunami with a force not seen in at least two generations.  Back then I was chastised as being a doom and gloomer, or an extremist.  The flip flopping bi polar manic depressive psychotic blogger fka FloridaBuilder was at top of the list....now curled up in the fetal position sucking his thumb hiding in a corner somewhere behind his identity de jour.

My friends, I was characterized this way even though I was sanitizing how I really saw the destruction of the upcoming storm.  If you look to your left, then look to your right, it is very likely one of your neighbors will be unemployed this year.

Today, Toyota shut down ALL of its factories in Japan for 11 days.  This has NEVER happened before.  NEVER  Alcoa announced it is laying off 13% of its entire workforce.  20-30% of all retailers are expected to go bankrupt this year.  Half of mortgage brokers have been released.  Incomes of many real estate agents and airline workers have been cut by over 40%.  Auto company revenues are down around 40%.  States are on the verge of running out of money and cities are in the brink of bankruptcy. 

This is where I saw things going last year.  We have arrived and the worst is still ahead, .....although reported unemployment, at this time, is lower than I expected.....there is little doubt now that unemployment is about to skyrocket....just wait until the BLS backs out birth/death adjustments and spouses and retirees return to work to supplement income and are added to the unemployment roles....the numbers are  goiing to be out of this world.

The problem is when nations don't have enough money to meet needs, military intervention is often seen as a potential solution.  With tensions rising all around the world, simutaneously, we are on the edge of something potentially very dangerous.

We are rapidly running out of money, unless we restructure very very soon.....expect to see things degenerate very very quickly.....very very quickly.

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 06, 2009 at 7:06 PM, alstry (35.39) wrote:

Expect the layoff train to get really really really long.........my contacts are reporting some pretty distressing outlooks for the channel.....IBM next?????

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- International Business Machines Corp., the biggest technology employer, may cut thousands of jobs this month amid the global economic slowdown, according to the employee group Alliance for IBM.

 

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#2) On January 06, 2009 at 7:57 PM, briyan (30.70) wrote:

Giving a rec as always for my man alstry.   I think the toughest part of choosing an investment plan for today's world is deciding the difference between what "needs to happen" for our country to recover and what our government will actually push forward.

As investors, we have to remain on our toes because the government can (and will) destroy the best-laid plans with irrational legislation.  The rules are always changing!  

Alstry, you talk about how we desperately need to restructure, but do you honestly think it will happen?  Those in charge of steering the United States over the past years have shown absolutely no indication they are willing to take any steps in the right direction. I think the surest bet of all is that our "overlords" will make the exactly wrong decision at each crucial juncture.

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#3) On January 06, 2009 at 8:01 PM, killeru (< 20) wrote:

Haven't heard much lately about the estimated 20 million undocumented immigrants that are living and "working?" in the USA.

How is this affecting the unemployment/welfare costs? The ability of recently unemployed citizens to get a job?

I see on the news where they finally got a fence up on the border, so now what,.. they are trapped here...?

killeru

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#4) On January 06, 2009 at 8:13 PM, outoffocus (22.87) wrote:

Haven't heard much lately about the estimated 20 million undocumented immigrants that are living and "working?" in the USA.

Are you sure there are still 20 million? From what I heard a number of them are leaving due to lack of opportunity.

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#5) On January 06, 2009 at 8:17 PM, starbucks4ever (97.17) wrote:

The Alstryans were Alstryans from the Alstryland. The Alstrians posted Alstryblogs in Alstrycapdom, discussing Alstrynomics, Alstrynomy, Alstrylogy, Alstrygebra, Alstrymetry, Alstrystory, Alstrygraphy, and various other branches of Alstryscience. After several months of Alstryposting, the Alstrians discovered what they thought was a pattern of Alstrysponses, and having launched an Alstrystigation, they Alstryscovered that the whole Alstyland consisted of only two Alstrians: Alstry himself and Florida Builder. A secondary Alstrystigation revealed that Alstry was the Florida Builder.     :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) : :) :) 

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#6) On January 06, 2009 at 11:12 PM, motleyanimal (89.11) wrote:

May the circle be unbroken.

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#7) On January 06, 2009 at 11:32 PM, cwlawrence (< 20) wrote:

Hey Alstry, why is your score going down so much?

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#8) On January 07, 2009 at 8:42 AM, alstry (35.39) wrote:

cw,

Sometimes in life you have to lose to win......you are obviously not married.

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#9) On January 07, 2009 at 5:28 PM, cwlawrence (< 20) wrote:

hmmm... but is CAPS life? If thats the case then I am certainly winning ;)

Oh and FWIW, it's a nasty internet faux pas to make comments about a person's home life; an area that you definitely know nothing about.

I predict that if you continue to be the messanger of doom, you will find yourself at the bottom of the CAPS heap in less than a year... 

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