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alstry (35.50)

Alstrynomics....The Next Phase

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23

July 21, 2009 – Comments (24)

Alstry, among other very astute CAPS players, warned you IN ADVANCE about  the housing bubble, the pension bubble, the municipal bubble, and other issues.

 

NOW get ready for the slashing and cutting phase of the Government Bubble that will cause rivers of blood flowing into the streets.  We are going to see government slash spending....businesses slash spending....households slash spending.....which is going to cause tens of millions of job losses and MASSIVE contraction to our GDP.

 

The stock market is controlled by computers playing slot machine algorythem games back and forth to each other.  The economy is controlled by cash flow and savings.  Right now, as the economy slows, cash flow is drying up.  As cash flow drys, people must rely on savings as access to credit evaporates.

 

Since debt service remains even if cash flow shrinks,  servicing debt will consume a greater and greater percentage of decreasing cash flows until servicing debt consumes so much that the debtor defaults.

 

The game changer will be government cut backs.  It will be billions at a time and the impact will be fast and hard.  If you are not prepared by now, time is running out, if time even exists.

 

Alstry came to CAPs to warn you.......by many I was ridiculed.........but the warnings continued despite the temptation to quit.   Over the next six months, you will see the slowdown get much worse....that is a mathematical certainty based on current Zombulation policies.

 

If the policies change, Alstry will change.....but for now, prepare......if you still can.

 

Cash, a bit of metal, and pay down debt..........helps prevent a lot of sweat.

24 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 21, 2009 at 1:47 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.87) wrote:

Al,

Have you heard the rumors about a bank holiday this fall?  Thoughts?

JFC

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#2) On July 21, 2009 at 1:49 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

JFC,

I have heard about a  bunch of rumors....many of them outside the scope of CAPs and many much more serious.

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#3) On July 21, 2009 at 2:03 PM, kaskoosek (67.01) wrote:

Both of you guys crack me up.

 

JFC

 

Why would the US want erosion in the value of the dollar to happen in one day?

How can it happen, I just do not understand it. 

 

 

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#4) On July 21, 2009 at 2:04 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

The blood will be GUSHING!!!!!!

Almost $100 billion in losses for California's biggest government pension funds

CalPERS reports its portfolio has shrunk 23.7% in the last year while the State Teachers' Retirement System says its holdings are down 25%.

Multiplied by every other pension plan, and the numbers are getting just plain silly as bankers play on the other side of the trade.

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#5) On July 21, 2009 at 2:27 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

I live in a state that has a relatively healthy economy, and relatively low unemployment.  However, I just received a mailing from the school district announcing lay-offs and a 40% increase in the school portion of our property taxes.  All state gov't workers went to a 4 day work-week last year to save overhead costs, and now positions and hours are being cut.

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#6) On July 21, 2009 at 2:30 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.87) wrote:

Al - you and I have both blogged about the coming mass hysteria / anarchy.  Those that believe all this will end without some mass disruption are very, very naive...

I have to admit being a bit scared for my friends and family that have done NOTHING to prepare, in spite of my warnings. 

JFC

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#7) On July 21, 2009 at 2:45 PM, ralphmachio (24.91) wrote:

Kaskoosek, What gives you the impression that the people that control the US currency, and the markets have any interest in the well being of the country?  

They have allowed for all manufacturing to go overseas, created an economy where it doesn't make sense to fabricate anything domestically.

NAFTA?

Sometimes it doesn't make sense to most, but the captain must scuttle the ship.  In this case, the ship was temporary, and designed to allow for a larger one.   200 years is a tiny burp in the scope of history.  The change that must occur cannot happen with the current system intact.  The whole time, this country has been a means to an end.  It has been a tool, someone else's bully.  That is why we choose to support some very strange allies that seem to not have our best interest in mind.  

Our constitution protects us from many injustices so long as our government is intact.  (ideally)  With what's about to happen to us, I'm worried the government won't even want to be around to have to answer any questions.  They'll probably all go to the island where bin laden saddam and papa Bush are sippin boat drinks with the Queen.  

 

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#8) On July 21, 2009 at 2:53 PM, FreundInvesting (29.36) wrote:

Alstry & JFC -- I'm with y'all and have been from the beginning.

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#9) On July 21, 2009 at 3:03 PM, kaskoosek (67.01) wrote:

FreundInvesting

 

I greatly respect your oppinion, but I think that Alstry has it wrong here.

 

Government has no other choice than to spend money it doesn't have. They have already been doing that, the alternative is not a politically acceptable one. 

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#10) On July 21, 2009 at 3:05 PM, alstry (35.50) wrote:

WOW!!!,

ralph,

that could be one of the most insightful pieces ever written on CAPs.

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#11) On July 21, 2009 at 3:08 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.87) wrote:

Ralph, Freund,

This is all going to end very ugly.  Sheeple in this country will be calling for public floggings of Fed officials and their GS counterparts, probably before this year is out.

God help us all!

To me, this quote never meant more "Power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely."  Not to get too philisophical, but the American experiment points to the ultimate depravity of man.  I am not saying I want to live in any other country, just that the 'freedoms' in our country have shown an interesting side of man.

Many of the founding fathers believed that our country's structure could never hold if it weren't for a heavy dependence on faith in God.  I am sad to say they appear to be right.

JFC

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#12) On July 21, 2009 at 3:21 PM, 4everlost (29.39) wrote:

This is blockbuster news!!!!  jesusfreakinco is an alstry alias!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#13) On July 21, 2009 at 3:22 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

@ kask

Dear, dear, dear, dear.  You really do not understand this at all do you.  Paybacks are a bitch, aren't they.  Don't you suppose that perhaps Government has pissed off someone IMPORTANT and that all of this is simply the extraction of revenge for the actions of Government?  Tsk, tsk, tsk, so poorly informed aren't you.  

When the white wolf comes out to prowl, with the sword of the Headless Horseman raised, you had better watch out my little piggy.  We will continue until we have extracted the last DIME.

And all because of a PO Carpenter (not Jesus) from the Village of Pelham Manor, NY and the slime encrusted Judges that seek payoff for a days work.  Who said we needed Government in the first place?  Certainly not the FOUNDING FATHERS.

Be afraid, be very afraid until either of two things happen.  The PO Carpenter makes repentence and PAYS for his sin (in cash by the way and the bidding will not be cheap), or the last dime has been extracted from all of the people, WORLDWIDE.  

And to think they thought they were dealing with a nobody.  Perhaps, I will let Mr. Gates from Harvard take up the case, as he seems to understand more than you.

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#14) On July 21, 2009 at 3:24 PM, 4everlost (29.39) wrote:

BTW, rec #8

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#15) On July 21, 2009 at 3:34 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.87) wrote:

4everlost

Don't insult me like that.  I am much smarter and better looking than Al.  I am also offended because he is a lawyer and we all know about lawyers...

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#16) On July 21, 2009 at 3:35 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.87) wrote:

Al - admittedly, you are a better CAPS player than I. I know it is all about the game for you.  So, perhaps on some things you ARE smarter than I.  :)

JFC

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#17) On July 21, 2009 at 5:53 PM, BullMktAg (< 20) wrote:

JFC -

Never use "I" when you could use "me" - I think that would make you look smarter.

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#18) On July 21, 2009 at 6:07 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.87) wrote:

DRIP - sorry proper English isn't my strength. 

JFC

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#19) On July 21, 2009 at 6:55 PM, jatt22 (45.19) wrote:

have  u  guys  heard  dat  govt  cutting spending on  F 22   an  dat  in  turn  will  cut  90k  jobs .

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#20) On July 21, 2009 at 7:25 PM, OldEnglish (28.10) wrote:

"We are going to see government slash spending..."

Please explain how that is even remotely likely on the federal level. Government spending has exploded. State governments have seen a downturn due to lowered revenues. The federal government has no revenue restrictions on spending; Up to and including Stimulus II: Bailout of the States.

This is helicopter Ben we're talking about. There is no limit to the amount of long term treasuries he'll buy. It's in the political interest of the government to simply create massive amounts of debt. Japan went to debt three times GDP significantly on "Stimulus". America is just getting started. Why do you think federal spending will decrease?

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#21) On July 21, 2009 at 9:42 PM, Judochop172 (27.32) wrote:

So what's the connection to Thomas Pell, Adi? Are the Dutch wanting their land back?

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#22) On July 21, 2009 at 11:27 PM, MisterBruce (67.46) wrote:

"America has become the symbol not of a strong, assured confident giant striding into the future—but of a society that now stands more than ever as a warning of where [defying] nature merely to become richer and richer without limit can lead to. . . . We wonder if the whole course of America has not been based on a false premise. Can she change that course— or is she inevitably heading for some ultimate disaster?"

These sobering words were not written under the shadow of the recent  Wall Street collapse or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. British journalist Christopher Booker penned them in 1980, in an essay titled "Dear America: Mediation on a Lost Dream

from an article by Arthur Herman, The Wilson Quarterly, Spring 2009.

That same year began a decade long rally of prosperity, the likes of which had never been seen before in history

One other:
To whom can I speak today?
The inequity that strikes the land
It has no end.
To whom can I speak today?
There are no righteous men
The earth is surrendered to criminals.


This is the authentic voice of professional pessimism from wall hieroglyphics in a New Dynasty tomb in Egypt dating from 2000 B.C.

from the same article.

The point I'm trying make is that this is nothing new. This malaise has been with us since we first learned to walk and talk. There are those that have and those that have not. Those that have will do whatever they need to in order to keep it, can you blame them? The rest of us, well, in one way or another, we work for those who have, assuring that they continue to have.

Government for the people by the people, a fiat monetary system, equal rights, the illusion of an affluent middle class, debt is good. . . .  they keep selling, we keep buying, caveat emptor. Most people don't understand the difference between money and wealth. The best you can hope for is that you are able to recognize opportunities that will enrich your life, and then act on them. . . and be grateful we don't find ourselves working on the pyramids.

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#23) On July 21, 2009 at 11:51 PM, caltex1nomad (< 20) wrote:

Pessimism=Buying opportunity. Great post MisterBruce, I'm with you.

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#24) On July 22, 2009 at 3:29 AM, SuperPicks (29.04) wrote:

Alstry, I am one of your biggest fans, I love reading your blogs as they keep me up to date on certain news many a time.

BUT, if you could be kind & courteous enough to keep from spamming the "Most Recommended Blog Posts" for the day, it would be a great service to those who want updates on the CAPs community.  to be fair, this was asked of others (ie such as goodvibe4ever, etc) who did relent & agree to stop spamming the area (thank god).

There's 5 slots on the most recommended for teh day, and today, you have filled 3/5 of them.  This limits the voices I hear and is kind of like limiting distribution of thought (ie public only exposed to mainstreat media) - it works both ways!

I am against censorship or limitations on expressing oneself, but please try to knock down the blog count to 1-2 blog posts in a 24hr period,  if u limit it to 2/day, you can still go a long ways with 700 posts per year. 

My apologies for spamming this comment 3x today, I would just hope you get a chance to read atleast one of these. 

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