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alstry (35.28)

Alstry's Gift to CAPS

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March 07, 2009 – Comments (44)

I came here a year ago warning you what was going to happen in housing, banking, municipalities, pension funds, ect.....  I blogged day after day supporting my projections with facts from respected third party sources in practically every blog.  I blogged at no charge and took lots of abuse because most of you were too blind to see reality.  As far as being a perma bear...that is the furthest thing from the truth.....I have been directly responsible for making me and my friends millions and millions of dollars by investing long......and have little doubt I will do so again in the not too distant future.

But because of your inability to separate emotion from reality, many of you preferred losing you own money rather than just looking at the facts I, and a few other CAPs players were posting.  Quite frankly, I really don't care one way or the other whether you make or lose money.  It really has no impact on my life or those I care about.  I must say, for those of you that have thanked me for maybe positively influencing your personal situation, you don't know how good that makes me feel.

If you notice, I never brag how smart I am....if I did, I wouldn't be smart enough.  And if you know the people I hang out with, most Harvard grads wouldn't be qualified to be their waterboys....and as far as that goes, niether am I.  My bragging is strictly limited to my playing CAPs.  In that, it keeps the playing field level for all.

In just one year, I have scored more points than anyother player and have a higher average score per pick than any top ten player with a diversified portfolio.  My picks, albeit different weightings, address practically every sector with approaching 300 picks for the year.  Believe it or not, Alstry outperformed every diversified mutual fund in America and the only place you could see it in real time was CAPs.

What most of you still don't get is Alstry, Alstrynomics, and the Insitute.  Alstry is the greatest financial gift anyone could have ever given you in 2008....and many of you guys simply get angry because you don't like the wrapping paper.  Pretty fricken amazing.

What if Alstry is really that good.  What if he continued to blog and provide ideas with equal consistency as he did in the past.  How much would that be worth to you??????  I have little doubt that I have months where I have lost more money than most of you have saved in a lifetime.  Think about that for a second.

Instead, you get angry because Alstry calls out someone, who without invitation nor every a personal comment directed toward him, says his blog provides NO investment advice....and some of you call this person a gentleman.  Clearly, you and I have a very different definition of the term.  Further, not a single TMF blogger ever said his comment was out of line.

Trust me, I know I invite challenges.  It attracts attention and that is exactly what I set out to do....If I was was going to effectively warn people....I had to separate myself from the rest of the pack early.  Never once did I ever criticize anyone with a lessor score than mine and most of my challenges were generally smack type talk except for once which we don't need to rehash as that blog was summarily removed........  

Some of you guys are absolutely incredible.....you think that if I was able to see the downturn somehow I won't be able to reverse course and go long......not only will I go long, I will go long with a vengence when the time is right........ and making money in that environment will be like taking candy from a candy store in an all you can eat shop for one price.

So stay pissed at Alstry.....he really doesn't give a damn.   He gave you a gift that no one will ever likely give you again.  There was no BS here....just the hard cold facts that most of you were too full of yourselves to see the truth....Remember, go look at the style of Alstry's blogging.....rarely did he present a conclusion without providing supporting facts.

Sure, complain about talking in the third person.  Complain about the style of his presentation.  Complain that he wasn't pretty enough for you....or maybe didn't dress right....wasn't popular enough.....didn't go to the right school.......possibly put in too many punctuation marks..........or his spelling or grammer was off a bit.

But in the end....Alstry delivered.  He delivered the facts.  He never quit.  He delivered a portfolio that outperformed every diversified mutual fund in America.  And he told you to go to cash when everyone else was too afraid to go against convention.  He warned you about practically every crisis that is making headlines today. 

So if you read this blog, and didn't heed the warnings after seeing fact after fact thrown in your face.....really the only person you should be mad at is yourself.

Remember my friends, as I have stated on a few occasions, when you are playing in a poker game, and you don't know who the patsy is.......you better get up and leave quick.

Folks.....Alstry's role is not about putting people down.....he is about waking them up......that was his gift to CAPs.....if you havn't awakened by now.......you will likely be asleep for a long long time.

And if you think I won't beat you to the game of going long when the time is right.......you have no idea who Alstry is...............

 

44 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 07, 2009 at 11:35 PM, eldemonio (98.87) wrote:

Alstry,

I don't think your message is what turns people off.  It's not because you went to the wrong school, or use too many............???????  People get upset and angry with you because you come across as an egotistical, arrogant.......... jackass.  

You keep saying you don't care about what others think - Repeating the same garbage about how good you are and how everybody else dislikes like you because they are jealous or whatever other reason you have deluded yourself to believe is tiresome.  If you truly don't care, then prove it by not posting these ridiculous blogs.  

 

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#2) On March 07, 2009 at 11:44 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

First, I have never said how "good" I am........what I have said is that I have scored more points with a higher average score playing caps than any other player during my time here playing the game....that is simply a fact and is not related to my goodness or badness.

These blogs are actually not ridiculous....they are teaching you how to separate emotion from facts.  We had a president who was emotionally popular that drew us into a senseless war that killed thousands and thousands men, women, and children...both American and non American.

The ability to separate emotion from facts is KEY to being a successful investor.  If you can't do it, you will never be able to buy low and sell high or sell high and buy back low as emotions will always get in your way.

Alstry is just a real time and socratic way to improve your skills.  If you think about it, as it really applies to your daily life, Alstry is just a fictional blogging character on CAPs that provides better investment advice and general economic perspective than just about any other place you can find.

Please note, there are other CAPs bloggers providing similar and very good information as well.

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#3) On March 08, 2009 at 12:00 AM, eldemonio (98.87) wrote:

Please note, there are other CAPs bloggers providing similar and very good information as well.

 

I agree.  Why is it then that you are consistently the one blogger that draws critisism from so many others?  It is not the message because other bloggers share similar warnings of financial doom.  If it's not the message, than what is it?

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#4) On March 08, 2009 at 12:09 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Maybe because that is my goal??????

Then after achieving my goal, to see how long a fool can stay a fool just because he is emotionally set one way even though the facts are directing him or her the opposite.

By knowing that, it enables Alstry to have a better persepctive on how long and to what extent the market can remain irrational.

Pretty interesting experiment isn't it????????

 

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#5) On March 08, 2009 at 12:39 AM, Hudarios (< 20) wrote:

Hodarius has never seen so many words devoted to something that the author claims not to care about (what people think of him) nor doing something that the author claims not to do (bragging).

But Hodarius enjoys Alstry's posts. Alstry has a clever and unique writing style that makes Hodarius chuckle.

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#6) On March 08, 2009 at 1:00 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

If this doesn't wake you up and make you think.............

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#7) On March 08, 2009 at 1:54 AM, shffl (< 20) wrote:

I never quite understood why there are so much hostility towards CAP members whose only goal is to help others. Those are the types of people that annoy me. Senseless people giving out dumb opinions that does no good. As my dad would say, these kind of people are those "with too much time in their hand and nothing in their mind."

I started reading blogs in CAPS less than a month ago and stumbled across one of Alstry's blog. I forgot which 1 it was but I decided to look at the blogs from past year before the Panic of 2008. I could see that Alstry had been calling this collapse for many, many months and right away Alstry had earned my respect as someone's word whom I will be listening to. 

What's sad (my friends and I always pity these people) is that a majority of people choose to listen to those who have been consistently wrong and against those who are proven right. It makes no sense! My friends and I had a good laugh that day when Bernanke called a bottom in near and the market "rallied." Kool-aid anyone? My only theory for those who are like that may be because they follow the advice of those who were wrong but refuse to believe that they are wrong, hence, they will stick to their original opinion from the same source.

It's sad that Alstry days are numbered. I can feel a tough road ahead and as a newbie, there are still many things that I have to learn to prepare myself for the economy ahead both mentally and financially.  

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#8) On March 08, 2009 at 3:00 AM, shffl (< 20) wrote:

"to see how long a fool can stay a fool just because he is emotionally set one way even though the facts are directing him or her the opposite"

This reminds me of something I read earlier about how a group of sorority girls were introduced to a fat-loss diet consisting of nothing but grape fruit and ice cream. Enticed by the ease of the diet, they all pursued upon their eventual dietary disaster. Apparently their weight gain from the "fat loss" diet is not enough to stop them from this diet with no scientific back up.

I can feel a correlation between this and people in stock market as well. Investors are enticed by a stock or story or news and decided to pursue upon their financial doom despite the fact that evidence points the other way around. 

A sad world we are living in. But then again, it is these kind of fools that propel many to stardom.  

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#9) On March 08, 2009 at 4:11 AM, tfirst (32.50) wrote:

tfirst believes that caps is just another one of the tools Alstry uses as a type of sentiment about the market. tfirst's understanding is that the bear market won't be over until the very last investor believes the market can never go up and Alstry is just testing the waters, searching out for optimists left in the market. This way, he knows this is not the time to go long....yet. When everyone agrees with Alstry, that's when he'll go away and  whoever is representing themself as Alstry will then go long.

tfirst thinks of it as the long haired old guy on the corner with a sign that says "Repent! The end is near!". When we all repent, there is no more need. Alstry's post's have been helpful and entertaining. I have much respect for his type of wisdom. That said, tfirst doesn't believe Alstry will be going anywhere for at least a couple months yet as we have plenty more pain to exploit.

btw I did buy some GE, I couldn't help it, please forgive me. 

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#10) On March 08, 2009 at 4:26 AM, jester112358 (28.82) wrote:

"Methinks he doth protest too much" 

 

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#11) On March 08, 2009 at 5:02 AM, redneckdemon (< 20) wrote:

Something I don't understand here:  If nobody likes the guy, why read his posts?  It seems to me the majority of people with something to say on Alstry's comments box are just here to insult and taunt him.  I have yet to see any posts down here arguing the validity of his facts, only taunts, jibes, and the 'occasional' word of praise or thanks.

How hard is it to read through the post and gather the info you want?  If that's to hard, just stay away from his freaking posts. 

There is no reason to read them, decide his "insert character flaw of choice here" offends you on some deep emotional level and wade in with guns blazing.

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#12) On March 08, 2009 at 9:11 AM, InsuranceHunter (< 20) wrote:

Alstry-

Does the financial sector vector have to be the general in leading this market to higher ground even temporarily?  Look at the ETF XLF which is beaten to pixie dust.  At what point do the financial shorts realize their enormous gains and cover?  Volume appears to be diminishing in the overall market yet we continue to slide.

Thank you for your efforts to educate those of us who listen to you. 

 

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#13) On March 08, 2009 at 9:18 AM, InsuranceHunter (< 20) wrote:

Alstry-

Does the financial sector vector have to be the general in leading this market to higher ground even temporarily?  Look at the ETF XLF which is beaten to pixie dust.  At what point do the financial shorts realize their enormous gains and cover?  Volume appears to be diminishing in the overall market yet we continue to slide.

Thank you for your efforts to educate those of us who listen to you. 

 

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#14) On March 08, 2009 at 9:29 AM, fiveoclock (76.68) wrote:

People get upset and angry with you because you come across as an egotistical, arrogant.......... jackass

Nope....  That is why i like him. 

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#15) On March 08, 2009 at 9:32 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

redneck,

Excellent observation.  But to be fair, I am taunting them as well.  Think about it, if you read my post for the past year and didn't follow the advice, you are pretty upset with yourself.  If you did, you are smiling because in the not too distant future you will be sitting on a whole bunch of cash to buy just about anything you want.

jester,

No protesting..just having a little fun.  Remember it is me on top.

Insurance,

The financial sector is at the whim of the Dark Side...or government right now...we will just have to wait and see.

tfirst,

generally pretty much dead on...except for the long hair....but I do have a lot of it.

At the end of the day, you can comment all you want about the style...but the score is the score and there ain't nothing you can do about it.

How much fun do you think I am having????  I am a trial lawyer, I could make these guys love me within weeks...but what good would that serve....I am not looking for a following...just teaching a lesson to those that choose to listen.

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#16) On March 08, 2009 at 9:42 AM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

fiveoclock,

CNBS and a bunch of CAPs posters come off as nice and sweet and truly give embarrassingly poor advice potentially costing investors their life savings.  Alstry has an edge but gives just about the best advice in CAPs, or anyplace else for that matter objectively based simply on his blogging and scoring for the past year.

Remember, the Alstry character was consistent when he had zero points and now....this is not something new where I am bragging because I happen to be on top....Alstry has been arrogant from the beginning.

For the purpose of the following example and assuming you don't have a choice........

Would you rather have a surgeon who has questionable bedside manners but is the most competent physician and best cutter around, or would you rather be operated on a nice sweet doctor who is a butcher????

You know what is funny, regardless of what most people say in a vacum.....they subconsciously migrate to the latter.

Hopefully this string of blogs helps you separate butchers from those actually competent and looking out for your self interest.

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#17) On March 08, 2009 at 2:29 PM, RonChapmanJr (93.30) wrote:

"My bragging is strictly limited to my playing CAPs."

"I have little doubt that I have months where I have lost more money than most of you have saved in a lifetime."

Even you realize that these statements are contradictory, right?

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#18) On March 08, 2009 at 3:01 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Ron... 

For a guy who went Harvard, your thinking is rather limited and narrow.....

the two statements are perfectly consistent.

There are days when I play caps and lose 1000 points....most CAPs players havn't even accumlated 1000 points.

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#19) On March 08, 2009 at 3:08 PM, RonChapmanJr (93.30) wrote:

Even for a trial lawyer, you have a difficult time seeing the truth.  :)

Your first statement says that you only brag about CAPS.

The second statement is bragging about real money (which is outside of CAPS). 

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#20) On March 08, 2009 at 3:38 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

If I talked about how much money I made personally....that would be bragging....and a little distasteful from my perspective.  If I talked about how much money I made others, that would go to competence as it would still leave open to question my personal situation.

If I brag about how much I lost.....that goes more to self depricating humor and what a fricken idiot I was looking back at the particular situations.

You on the other hand pimp your real life blog  like an undersexed hermaphrodite and somehow think because you attended a certain school or attained a specific degree you are somehow smarter than someone else.

Not only is that Foolish....from my experience, I have found it to be more often wrong than right.

 

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#21) On March 08, 2009 at 3:49 PM, Seano67 (80.85) wrote:

You go, Alstry. Give them Harvard boys hell. With the amount of Harvard Business School grads in the top-most tiers of American corporate culture and executive offices, I think a strong case can be made that they bear a large portion of responsibility for where we're at right now.

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#22) On March 08, 2009 at 4:00 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Sean.....

Have you ever noticed how Alstry never initates and goes to anothers blog and puts them down....yet others come over to Alstry's blog and do it to me all the time......

Never has TMF ever stood up for Alstry....why do you think that is the case??????

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#23) On March 08, 2009 at 4:10 PM, Seano67 (80.85) wrote:

Never has TMF ever stood up for Alstry....why do you think that is the case??????

 

Probably because they see Alstry as being the stereotypical 'fly in the ointment' and somewhat of a rabble-rouser. That's just my guess. What do you think?

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#24) On March 08, 2009 at 4:17 PM, Seano67 (80.85) wrote:

And I thought TMFJake defended you? He seems like a really cool guy.

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#25) On March 08, 2009 at 4:23 PM, vteye (63.67) wrote:

Vteye like Alsty's Blog.  84% accuracy on stock picks.  

Alsty make Vteye laugh and money

 

 

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#26) On March 08, 2009 at 4:23 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Rabble-Rouser??????

Don't you think CAPs could use a bit of rabble rousing...same with CNBS....the WSJ.....Moody's....S&P....ect....

Think how they could market Alstry if they wanted to....someone who called the collapse perfectly and the only place they could find him is on CAPs......but nooooooooo....they want to keep serving the kool-aid......just like everyone else....

Look at what people like DWOT, Spec Bear, Abitare and others have been blogging about....do you ever see TMF promoting them???????  Hmmmmmmmmmm............I guess serving kool-aid is easier than being right......

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#27) On March 08, 2009 at 4:27 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

TMF Jake is an incredible guy based on my limited contact.......

As a matter of fact, I bet if he and I ever went out for drinks one night in Georgetown or 19th Street or Adams Morgan.....it could make for some very interesting conversation and I think we would both learn a lot by the end of the evening from each other.

Right now he is the only one over there that has earned my respect......but then again....my contact with TMF has been pretty limited and generally under strained circumstances.  On the whole though, I have not been too impressed with what I have observed thus far.....yet.

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#28) On March 08, 2009 at 4:32 PM, Seano67 (80.85) wrote:

TMF are stock pickers and investment advisors. That's what they're all about, and that's how they make their money. So they're always going to promote a more 'bullish' point of view so far as stocks go, and in the long term I think they're going to be right- not on every individual pick or recommendation of course, but right in the sense that yes, stocks in the long term over a basis of years can be a hell of a good investment. At least that's what history has shown us so far.

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#29) On March 08, 2009 at 4:56 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Seano

Alstry is a stock picker too.....so is DWOT, Spec Bear, and Abitare....and every other player in CAPs.......

As a history teacher....you know history changes.....life is about change and the abilility to successfully anticipate the change.....those that can consistently become consistent winners......

If things are not bullish....then shouldn't that point be made clear???.....when things are bullish.....that is the time to cheer.

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#30) On March 08, 2009 at 5:14 PM, Seano67 (80.85) wrote:

If things are not bullish....then shouldn't that point be made clear???.....when things are bullish.....that is the time to cheer.

 

I think they do a decent enough job. I mean it's highly obvious that the economy is not in a bullish state right now and may not be for some time to come, and they do state that obvious point over and over and over again. And as far as cheering when things are bullish, well again, that's highly obvious and sort of speaks to Buffett's point of being greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. 

But the underlying point- that if you've got an investment horizon of years or decades ahead of yourself, well then hell yeah it's a wise idea to at least consider investing a portion of your income in stocks, that still stands. It's easy to get caught in a state of tunnel-vision where you're only looking at the immediate now, and yes things are very shitty right now, but they won't always be. Who knows, it's possible the worst of the damge is already over with. 

The Motley Fool to me is not so much for traders as it is for investors, people who actually want to buy into companies as opposed to just trading off them. That is what's appealing about TMF to me, because that mirrors my viewpoint.  I buy into companies I'm a fan of and can believe in, with the intent to hold them and not just trade them a day or two later.

And history- dude, go back and look at the history of the stock market. Through all its downs, through all the traumatic events of the 20th century- in the end it's been a winner. 

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#31) On March 08, 2009 at 5:22 PM, BGriffinFlorida (27.07) wrote:

ALSTRY:

I greatly appreciate your insight and even more so your obvious intent of awaken people.

I have  had the pleasure of collecting several acquaintences and a few friends who have made their unpaid and most imprtant life job to 'spread an infectious contageous disease called free thought and autonomy, encouraging individuals to speak for themselves and question authority'... or in your terms, 'waking them up'.

The people i have encountered who share this occupation are different in many ways.  Some work very subtly, and believe it crude and counter productive to make their intention known to the recently or soon to be awakened.  Others are quite blunt.  Some dwell on inversion and playing a 'boogie man' of sorts.  Some have PHDs. One did not finish highschool.  A few have a large network of friends they socialize with frequently.  Others are more reclusive, approaching near-hermits.  Some are loud and gregarious, some are quiet and serious.

Despite all their differences, I can tell you of two things that are common to all.

1. None view 'being nice' as an admirable quality.  While a few downright abhor 'being nice',  none in the group view it as a positive.  This is not to say that they promote being mean, but it is fair to say that they would agree that many freindships are weakened, and many truths are clouded,  by efforts to be nice.

 2. All agree that awakening someone who is not ready, can have negative consequences, thought there doesn't seem to be much agreement on the severety of the negative consequences.  Most seem to warn against excessive attempts of increasing intensity, though more than one says you shoudl only attemt to awaken an indivual that 'sleepwalks' or 'dreams their way' to you and your message.

 

I think your CAPS blogs  are well within the bounds of those suggestions.  As uncomfortable as it may be to have people scream at you as they awaken from or continue their nightmare, know that you are doing good work.

 

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#32) On March 08, 2009 at 6:02 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

BGriffen,

Well said and thanks.  Are you related to your namesake?

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#33) On March 08, 2009 at 6:05 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.25) wrote:

Alstry, you deserves a lot of respect for being in the top ranks in CAPS. Congratulation!

I really understand what your post is all about. I reached the top 100 position few months ago, but since I missed time to continue to play on CAPS regularly. Tough, I blogged few times on CAPS, but I stopped, because after few good posts, I saw so many bad comments on posts that where not saying what people wanted to hear.

Personnaly, I rely on technical analysis to invest. Few of my blogs were giving advices, I got few good comments, but few very bad too from people that were not understanding what I was doing, and they didn't try to understand, but gave bad comments on my blogs....

Some after a few times, I decided I had no more time to lose blogging on the site, if people don't wan't somebody else knowledge so that's it.

It is ofter very hard to get a bad comment from somebody that have a rating under 20, saying to somebody having a rating above 99 that is don't know what he is talking about....

 

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#34) On March 08, 2009 at 6:07 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.25) wrote:

Alstry, you deserves a lot of respect for being in the top ranks in CAPS. Congratulation!

I really understand what your post is all about. I reached the top 100 position few months ago, but since I missed time to continue to play on CAPS regularly. Tough, I blogged few times on CAPS, but I stopped, because after few good posts, I saw so many bad comments on posts that where not saying what people wanted to hear.

Personnaly, I rely on technical analysis to invest. Few of my blogs were giving advices, I got few good comments, but few very bad too from people that were not understanding what I was doing, and they didn't try to understand, but gave bad comments on my blogs....

Some after a few times, I decided I had no more time to lose blogging on the site, if people don't wan't somebody else knowledge so that's it.

It is ofter very hard to get a bad comment from somebody that have a rating under 20, saying to somebody having a rating above 99 that is don't know what he is talking about....

 

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#35) On March 08, 2009 at 6:08 PM, MaskedMan2007 (99.25) wrote:

Alstry, you deserves a lot of respect for being in the top ranks in CAPS. Congratulation!

I really understand what your post is all about. I reached the top 100 position few months ago, but since I missed time to continue to play on CAPS regularly. Tough, I blogged few times on CAPS, but I stopped, because after few good posts, I saw so many bad comments on posts that where not saying what people wanted to hear.

Personnaly, I rely on technical analysis to invest. Few of my blogs were giving advices, I got few good comments, but few very bad too from people that were not understanding what I was doing, and they didn't try to understand, but gave bad comments on my blogs....

Some after a few times, I decided I had no more time to lose blogging on the site, if people don't wan't somebody else knowledge so that's it.

It is ofter very hard to get a bad comment from somebody that have a rating under 20, saying to somebody having a rating above 99 that is don't know what he is talking about....

 

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#36) On March 08, 2009 at 6:13 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Seano,

Becareful about looking at the "stock market" from a historical perspective.....many of the stocks that made up the "stock market" just a few decades ago are out of business todsay.

The S&P 500 is a self clensing group of companies that show no mercy for those business that fall by the wayside....and if you are an owner of one of those business, your performance would not mirror the stock market.

I too think CAPs is a very good creation and has been incredibly helpful to me..........it is a shame that more don't really know about it........from my perspective it would be a lot more fun if a few more "professional" investors joined the game.

As far as holding for the long term, that has always been my bias and CAPs actually improved my trading skills.  Unfortunately, a buy and hold mentality has not worked for at least the past decade and may not kick in for at least another decade...but who really knows????  It took the market decades to recover from highs reached in the early 1900s....it may be the same again, maybe longer or maybe shorter????

Few appreciate CAPs as much as Alstry....sometimes it gets a bit tiring sifting through the noise though......

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#37) On March 08, 2009 at 9:10 PM, Seano67 (80.85) wrote:

I realize that buy and hold may no longer work as it once used to. I realize that I may not exactly be maximizing my return on capital by pursuing a strategy like that, but I still continue to believe in it and will still continue to follow it. I believe it will pay off in the end.

I had a great example in my own life, and that was my Grandma, who while a schoolteacher began investing in stocks in the '40s and '50s, buying up blue chippers at very cheap rates like AT&T, GE, Coca Cola, IBM, and many, many others over the course of 50+ years of investing, and then just holding them and letting dividend reinvestment go to work relentlessly compounding her holdings. I mean this woman was wicked smart and with a head for business that I can not even begin to approach. She continued investing up until her death at the age of 98, and at the time of her passing she had literally made millions in the stock market.

So that's the example I go by and am striving for, because that's what I know from having seen it personally, and it works.

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#38) On March 08, 2009 at 9:43 PM, shffl (< 20) wrote:

Personally, I think buy and hold only works for very few people. People such as Buffett who can eventually own the entire money and profit from its business. Average investor such as myself with very limited capital cannot strive under such strategy. I eventually have to sell and keep profit. A long-term play is more ideal for the average investor. The only way an average investor can benefit from buy and hold isif the company pays dividend like you saind Seano, and there is nothing wrong with it. 

I haven't really start investing yet since I'm still a jobless college student, but I believe that I still have time since the economy has no recovery in sight. But when I do, I was thinking about going long-term with a certain % of my portfolio while the other % will be used for a shorter term trading from a few weeks to months (i was never a huge fan of day trading).

 

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#39) On March 08, 2009 at 9:53 PM, InsuranceHunter (< 20) wrote:

Alstry-

 With the exception of a few CAPS members who respond to your postings it is of my opinion that most of these morons are no better than the idiots who post on the Yahoo message boards.  Why else would one spend so much time attacking Alstry personally?  Why do they not spend their time posting helpful material and or asking Alstry intelligent questions about how to make money in the market??? Or better, offering sound advice on how to make money in the market.

Anyway I joined TMF recenlty and stumbled upon your blogs which I find to be most helpful with a sweet twist of humor. However, based on the crap I have read of late I had rather waste my time reading a Dr. Suess book than to weed thru all the BS which now dominate your blog.

Get a life you dopes!  I suspect most of you attackers are socialists beura-punks anyway.

"If I must choose between righteousness and peace, I choose righteousness."
– Theodore Roosevelt

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#40) On March 08, 2009 at 10:34 PM, AirForceFool (99.93) wrote:

Alstry,

Trivia question of the day (at least in my mind): Have you been able to duplicate your CAPS success in real life, and if so, how? I ask this, because I am also doing pretty well in CAPS, making most of my points on underperform picks. I have not however been able to duplicate my CAPS successes in real life. While I have done a bit better then the S&P (down only 25%  instead of 40%), it is far from what I would hope it were (though I'm quite sure there are some that would kill for only a 25% loss). I trade options, and have no problem shorting stocks, but I tend to be a bit faster and loser in CAPS, not really doing the homework necessary to spend real loot on every pick... also, it isn't like I can fund and follow 50-100 picks... becuase while I spend about 30 hours a week on stocks, that's just not enough time while I still actually have to work for a living. Personally this is the first blog of yours I've read, and will probably go back over your older ones as time permits. As far as offending folks goes, no need to worry about me... I only have one feeling, and I can't seem to find it.... harass and encite all you like... if it yields me even one or two picks I can actually use in real life, I'll buy you a beer... or drink of your choice... Chris

 

 

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#41) On March 08, 2009 at 11:21 PM, alstry (35.28) wrote:

Chris,

My real life personal portfolio generally NEVER has more than 5 different symbols.  I have a very limited IQ and simply cannot know more than 5 companies well at any given time.

More often than not, 100% of my portfolio is concentrated in one symbol.  As I age, I will likely increase to 2 or 3 and possibly 4 or 5 if I really get ambitious.

My philosophy is not for everyone and requires a competence to be able to analyze a business in depth with a strong understanding of the nuances many simply are not trained to pick up.

As far as diversification, I try to diversify into as large a quantity as I can afford of the different presidents identified on the currency of the United States of America.

My buddy is a pilot....he spends many hours a month flying around the world just to remain current......I do the same with analysis......I could never be as qualified as he is simply because I can't and don't devote the time.....I know he feels the same about what I do.

Shorting and playing options is a professionals game.  If you are going to short, make sure you insure the position with out of the money call options to cover you if the market behaves irrationally....just look at some of the perspective of CAPs players for irrationality.  The pros are no different....just read the the blog I wrote a few weeks ago about S&Ps rating change on Mohawk(MHK)

I lost a ton of money when I first started shorting and "playing" options......but belive it or not, CAPs has made me a better trader.  At this point, it is too early to determine whether I will have long term success so I hesitate to give any advice on the subject.

If you are foolish enough to read this far down in the comments section....I just green dollar signed a new company in my CAPs portfolio.  I am personally short this company in real life and do not recommend anyone else act similarly because the likelihood of substantial loss of capital is very high due to the nature of risk associated with shorting any stock among other factors.  Further, I never know when I might change my mind and I doubt I will post or blog that my position has changed.

For most people, the safest place to be right now is primarily cash.......it is kicking the backside of just about every investment for the past year.....when things start to turn around....go long with a vengence.

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#42) On March 09, 2009 at 12:38 AM, AirForceFool (99.93) wrote:

Appreciate the quick response... personally I have about half in stocks... wish I knew when the market was going to turn, but if I pull it all out now, I'm sure it will mark the bottom... I'll have to spend some time analyzing your picks... amazing how many points with so few picks... would be nice to have those returns in real life... personal favorite stocks right now are GEOY and CHK (GEOY since they got certified, and CHK cause it so cheap)... both stocks are of course not without their risks... especially CHK in the short term. Peace. Chris

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#43) On March 09, 2009 at 4:21 PM, APJ4RealHoldings (31.67) wrote:

Right on Alstry!!!

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#44) On March 09, 2009 at 6:14 PM, Varchild2008 (85.30) wrote:

In this economy have to load up and load up and load up on your strongest 2 or so stocks in your portfolio while backing off (if not completely abandoning) any company you have worries over regarding Debt.

Alstry may be a big bear today but he will reverse course at some point during my life time and I want to own as many shares as I can when he Alstry writes the first "Spector Vector Straight through Ceiling, BUY BUY BUY tomorrow" post.

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