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alstry (36.49)

Alstry's Last Blog

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May 20, 2009 – Comments (36)

Yes its true.....and you will not have to wait 12 months.

If by the end of the Summer....yes the end of Summer....if the following is not the general perception of most of the reasonable caps players...and even a few of the unreasonable ones as well....Alstry will quit blogging forever.....unless of course he is rated 100 before then which is also very likely and the basis to quit blogging.

By the end of Summer....most CAPs players should have most the following perceptions:

1.  That America is heading to its GREATEST Depression in History.

2.  That residential and commercial construction will pretty much come grinding to a halt.

3.  That Auto Sales will slow to a trickle.

4.  That cities, counties and states will be forced to fire hundreds of thousands of workers...maybe millions.

5.  That many of our schools will be forced to shut down or scale way back.

6.  Unemployment or the fear of unemployment will reach the highest levels in our lifetime.

7.  Bankruptcies and loan defaults will explode to levels never seen in history.

8.  Earnings for many of our corporations will be on track to be simply a memory and no longer reality.

9.  Motley Fool will be known as the spawning ground for one of the most accurate economic forecasting disciplines in the World....Alstrynomics.

10. Deej will actually like Alstry and agree that Alstry was right all along.

If the vast majority of the above fail to materialize....Alstry's done.  Period.

36 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 20, 2009 at 3:07 PM, ChrisGraley (29.86) wrote:

He just keeps posting he'll quit blogging to get more recs.

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#2) On May 20, 2009 at 3:10 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

No...he already has a bunch of those.

It is more for ego and showing that Alstrynomics is all about being right.

If you notice.....he just wants to make a prediction that is only available on Motley Fool's CAPs.

And when it comes true....he wants CAPs to get the credit for warning its community to prepare.

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#3) On May 20, 2009 at 3:20 PM, awallejr (77.23) wrote:

Oh stop.  I am confident that somehow you will find an excuse to continue.  I have no problem with your blogging. I just think it is silly to blog 4 things a day repeating basically the same things.

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#4) On May 20, 2009 at 3:38 PM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

10. Deej will actually like Alstry and agree that Alstry was right all along.

Somehow I don't see this happening.  Besides, you've left enough vagueness in all of the predictions that you'll have an out (or several outs) that will keep you blogging forever!

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#5) On May 20, 2009 at 3:41 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

awa,

congats on breaking zero...but don't count your chickens just yet.

Further, I have compressed my forecast by 75%.  By the end of this summer you will know we are heading towards the greatest depression in history........

I thought you would be happy to know Alstry could be leaving in a few months.....or do you now think Alstrynomics is right???

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#6) On May 20, 2009 at 3:44 PM, awallejr (77.23) wrote:

"congats on breaking zero...but don't count your chickens just yet."

All glory is fleeting.  I just want to see how CAPS will ultimately score a stock with a 0 or negative starting point.

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#7) On May 20, 2009 at 3:52 PM, awallejr (77.23) wrote:

 "thought you would be happy to know Alstry could be leaving in a few months.....or do you now think Alstrynomics is right???"

I don't really care if you stay or go.  Personally I think you are psychotic, but hey not everything you say is nuts.  You just tend to exaggerate.  And no, I don't think Alstrynomics is right.  I'm not of the view that the future short term is completely rosey, but it is not as bleak or dire as you seem to think.  I've seen alot of similiar things like this before in the 70s and 80s.  The only kicker was the boomers were still young.  I am not quite sure how this will all play out down the road as boomers retire or try to retire.

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#8) On May 20, 2009 at 3:59 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

You have never seen anything like this before.....you only think they were similar....they were not even close.

By the end of summer....I am quite confident you will see clearly and may even think Alstry is conservative in his estimates.

 

Remember, Alstrynomics is all about being right.....and if Alstry is not right....he should not exist!!!!!!  Especially with his arrogance, confidence and characteristically cocky attitude.

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#9) On May 20, 2009 at 4:15 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

The reason an air-raid siren is useful is that it goes off infrequently.

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#10) On May 20, 2009 at 4:18 PM, motleyanimal (55.72) wrote:

Keep trying until you get it right.

Or..........do what Michael dooze.

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#11) On May 20, 2009 at 4:21 PM, OctoStalin (39.14) wrote:

I want statistics, you will claim you are right no matter what unless we get exact percentage predictions and a cap on how many you can get wrong without resigning.

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#12) On May 20, 2009 at 4:22 PM, awallejr (77.23) wrote:

I guess you never lived through those days when cities defaulted on their bonds.  NYC was in dire straights back in the 70s for example, fear of even going bankrupt.  Then double digit inflation, interest rates and unemployment.  Vietnam War.  The draft. Racial riots.  Civil unrest.  High foreclosure rates late 80s, high bankruptcies. Country still survived.  And it will now. 

I certainly am not predicting "happy days are here again," but I don't see the country falling into riotous depressive chaos like you do. 

And this is a major issue I have with you as per this quote: "Remember, Alstrynomics is all about being right."  It just seems to me that you are actually hoping all hell does break loose.  Too many real and innocent people would have to suffer then.  And to be blunt, it sounds like you hope they do.  Nothing wrong with blogging to warn about potential tsunamis.  But rooting for them too just doesn't sit well. (shrug)

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#13) On May 20, 2009 at 4:23 PM, OctoStalin (39.14) wrote:

Alstry, what is your age and background?

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#14) On May 20, 2009 at 4:30 PM, DarkToast (41.89) wrote:

How does it feel to know the best thing you can offer your audience is to quit?

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#15) On May 20, 2009 at 4:31 PM, Buckaneer (< 20) wrote:

forget alstry. i don't give a you know what about him or his ego. but, you have been warned, equities are going down. and most of his gloomy predictions are coming true. unfortunately. but tremendous opp's await when you go short.

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#16) On May 20, 2009 at 4:34 PM, GKuhfeldt (48.55) wrote:

#8) "You have never seen anything like this before.....you only think they were similar....they were not even close."

I must say, you make statements like the above very often.  The point of debate is to present facts to convince others of your stance, not to rant and to counter opposition with "Nu-uh!"  If you were to submit the majority of your posts as papers to any university professor, they would fail you just like those who read your posts fail to agree with you.  You can tell me how someting tastes but I'm not going to just take your word for it.  I need something to chew on.

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#17) On May 20, 2009 at 4:37 PM, 4everlost (29.76) wrote:

Look, not a single ? or !  +1 rec for Alstry

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#18) On May 20, 2009 at 4:38 PM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

I'd settle for maybe one summarized post at the end of the week.  The repetitive nature and sensationalized predictions get to be annoying.  I think I can sum up in one post just about all of alstry's posts from the past two months...

"The economy sucks now and will suck more later...prepare!"

Of course that might be oversimplifying things...but that is the basic idea behind just about everyone of his posts. And look, I didn't need Alstrynomics or multiple posts to capture it.

The sad thing about all of this repetitive posting is that while there are some good pieces of information included in them, most are numb from the repetition.  And much like the boy who cried wolf, everyone has become so accustomed to what Alstry puts out three times a day, that no one is likely to pay him any heed when he has something of real significance to post about.  Of course, it won't matter in a few months...Fool on. 

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#19) On May 20, 2009 at 4:56 PM, FinancialModeler (26.98) wrote:

I will enjoy watching alstry be proven utterly wrong. The Greatest Depression in history? *rolling eyes*. The Fed has increased money supply. The banks have been recapitalized. Due diligence has returned to lending. The stock market seems to have some semblence of restored confidence in the systemic integrity of the economy. Alstry doesn't. Who are you going to believe? Alstry or the collective consensus of the market. 

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#20) On May 20, 2009 at 4:57 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

motley,

If that is really your picture, I am not sure I would post it.

Octo,

I coasted my way through law school and spent a lot of time in the bar.  I was a litigator drinking with a bunch of the judges in the bar and I have owned a few businesses while spending some time in the bar.

Now, my sole source of income and losses is investing.

awa,

It just seems to me that you are actually hoping all hell does break loose.

Not a chance..just warning you that unemployment is very likely to rise to 30-50% of the American workforce.  That 70-90% of all businesses and families will go bankrupt or near bankrupt.  That practically every city, county and state will go bankrupt or near bankrupt.

That is no where close to rooting on harm.......it is simply warning you of what is likely ahead...and if I help you and others avoid harm because of my wisdom....Alstry and The Institute of Alstrynomics can sit back, have a drink, and reflect on the postive work it accomplished in the small little world it touched.

Hopefully the above provides some statistics the rest of you were looking for....though we won't likely reach the bottom by the end of summer....but by then you will know where we are heading......

Alstry is very confident of this.....VERY CONFIDENT that you will know we are going someplace we have never gone before.

Prepare....how many times must I tell you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#21) On May 20, 2009 at 5:00 PM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

when has america ever failed?  The world will look to america and together we will all get through this.  Just like all those other sticky situations we have been in. 

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#22) On May 20, 2009 at 5:01 PM, automaticaev (< 20) wrote:

but that dosnt mean the market wont go down again.  The market will go down and up for a long time.  You can lose money still.

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#23) On May 20, 2009 at 5:03 PM, EggplantWizard (99.34) wrote:

alstry (99.77) wrote: "

1. That America is heading to its GREATEST Depression in History.

2.  That residential and commercial construction will pretty much come grinding to a halt.

3.  That Auto Sales will slow to a trickle.

4.  That cities, counties and states will be forced to fire hundreds of thousands of workers...maybe millions.

5.  That many of our schools will be forced to shut down or scale way back.

6.  Unemployment or the fear of unemployment will reach the highest levels in our lifetime.

7.  Bankruptcies and loan defaults will explode to levels never seen in history. "

I don't want to get into all the legalese and headache for formalize exactly what criteria would qualify as a "hit" for you, but the only one I agree with is 4), based on municipal bidget years generally beginning in July, with massive unemployment already expected.

 

I would offer you 5:1 odds (in principle) on any ONE of the others  coming true, if we were able to quality these things adequately. As it stands, I think you will have humiliated yourself enough by the "end of summer", Sept 22, 2009.

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#24) On May 20, 2009 at 5:09 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

Eggplant,

I truly hope you are right....but I seriously doubt it....

As said on many occasions before...Alstrynomics is all about being right.

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#25) On May 20, 2009 at 5:29 PM, Rasdiff (< 20) wrote:

MOE
He's right, you know.

SKINNER
About the ox?

MOE
About everything, dammit!

Do what you can to de-leverage now. In the future it will not be so easy.

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#26) On May 20, 2009 at 6:50 PM, awallejr (77.23) wrote:

So predicting half of all workers being out of work and 90% of all businesses and families going bankrupt is somehow helping your readers? Half your readers would be out of work and 90% bankrupt.  What did you do to help?  Tell people relax while unemployed and bankrupt and have a drink?

Alstry: "It is more for ego"

Bingo! 

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#27) On May 20, 2009 at 6:53 PM, Varchild2008 (86.15) wrote:

Alstry,

You have it backwards.... The more people OPPOSED to your view makes your view the MORE RIGHT.

The more people AGREEING WITH YOU means that your view is WRONG.

Why?  Cause those who are right...are never popular at the time they are right...

1) JESUS
2) BATMAN   "The Dark Knight"
3) GHANDI     Imprisoned numerous times before finally winning over minds and hearts

On and on.. lots of examples

Don't be POPULAR... ALSTRY...
Be.. INFAMOUS  be people.... but FAMOUS by facts.

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#28) On May 20, 2009 at 6:55 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

For most of his life...Alstry has pretty much generally been in the top 10% or higher....not because he is soooo smart....but because he worked harder than 90% of the rest.

I just trying to bring you and the other CAPS members into the top 10%....isn't that what investors helping investors is all about?????

Prepare...

deleverage...save....party...play....and score lots of CAPS points.

That shouldn't be too hard....should it?????

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#29) On May 20, 2009 at 7:05 PM, Bilifuduo (98.39) wrote:

*cough* talk about pessimism. I wouldn't be surprised if you told me you had a nuclear bunker with a food vault in the Maldives right now. Then again, no matter how much the recession sh*ts out, its always gonna rebound. 

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#30) On May 20, 2009 at 7:11 PM, debtRichQuick (< 20) wrote:

Well I can't say I'm happy to see this post, but you have been blogging for many years so I guess I'll enjoy reading your posts for the next few months.

LOL! Perhaps Alstry has found a new blog arena? =)

That said, I have been a fan/internet-bud of Alstry's since 2006 when he was largely unpopular on the DHI board. Around that time DHI was a $35 stock, most recently it touched $4.

Then it was on to the SPF board, where he was the ONLY person posting for a good 8-9 months... Finally as the stock started to drop all kinds of folks showed up…and they hated him there too. Day in and day out making person attacks on Alstry… Alstry of course, as usual, paid no mind to the simpletons, for they too would soon be crushed by the weight of reality....SPF was recently worth $0.65...down from $28 when Alstry started posting.

I know one thing is for sure, if I was a CEO, Alstry would be the last person I would want to see posting on my stocks message board…

Then it was onto the Fool.com blog-o-sphere for Alstry...where he met the same quantity of screaming simpletons, yet again… and they are saying the exact same types of things all the others who have come and gone said. At this point in time, there is no way one can deny who Alstry is...he has an incredible reputation for understanding the financial mechanics. Incredible.

There is however, one comment of Alstry's that I remember clearly... and that I hope to be the case in his Depression prediction...

"My personal history is replete with poor returns on many individual investments. However, there have been the occasional successes. Whether the relatively few hits will continue to outweigh the many misses will only be determined with time:)

That said, it takes a certain temperament to be willing lose most of the time yet still obtain satisfactory results. "  ~AlstryWith all the rights that Alstry has gotten in this whole debacle, there has to be a wrong...

I'm hoping his depression call is it.On the other hand, I would really like to see Alstry at work defending the Green economy that is growing and getting started….in 6 years we will all be screaming go Green or go home!

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#31) On May 20, 2009 at 7:22 PM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

debt,

Green is definitely on my radar......but I don't think it is BIG enough to avoid a Depression in the short run.....but clearly it will transform everything we do......

I call the current time the Technology Age......

We went from the Argricultural Age to the Industrial Age and many changes took place as a result and in the end we had a much higher standard of living.

Now we are morphing from the Industrial Age to the Technological Age and we are just experiencing the convulsions...such convulsions can manifest with Depressions, Wars, Social Unrest.....as change is never easy......and this change will be revolutionary.....but in the end....I have little doubt our standard of living will be much higher than when we started.

Alstrynomics is all about trying to anticipate some of the convulsions and serve as an analgesic to those who might think the logic is sound and in fact turns out to be right.

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#32) On May 20, 2009 at 7:23 PM, kamuirei (< 20) wrote:

#9) On May 20, 2009 at 4:15 PM, chk999 (99.99) wrote:

The reason an air-raid siren is useful is that it goes off infrequently.

 

 *goes off to give chk999 a rec just for that*

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#33) On May 20, 2009 at 7:43 PM, RLAprof (< 20) wrote:

There are a lot of people on here who are intent upon slamming Alstry because of his brash delivery of factual evidence. Yes, we all agree that he could tone it down a bit, and many would agree that his “facts” may be a bit exaggerated. However, on the other hand, I see little evidence to suggest that his predictions are completely invalid.

The only positive piece of evidence that I see to refute him is the relative hyper-inflation of the stock market. I don’t think that a 37% rise since March 9 is a rebound from an overcorrection, and I don’t think it is based on any positive information from the economic situation. The closest we can come to finding a positive supporting statistic is that things are not headed down so quickly anymore. If you jump from a plane and your parachute does not open, you will be able to say the same at one point. Anyone who knows anything about regression-toward-the-mean will agree that the closer you get to equilibrium, the slower the ride is, but that isn’t what stops it, and the swing away from equilibrium is not always back in the same direction.

In addition, there are a number of shoes that have not yet dropped. Foreclosures continue to climb, even though a handful of builders have decided that we may have hit bottom in housing starts. We just recently passed a credit card anti-rape bill, but it was written by the card lobbyists to ensure that they can go after the people who carry over no principle from month-to-month. They refer to these people as “free-loaders”, even though they stimulate about 2% per month in revenue on transactions (that’s over 24% per year). The bill does nothing to forestall any credit card defaults; it just means it might come a little later in some cases, the same way a 90-day freeze on foreclosures would do. Unemployment continues to climb, but not as quickly as before, but we fail to realize that the deeper the employment cuts go, the more critical the people being displaced. And I don’t even want to mention what will happen when the municipalities and states begin to default; that’s a blog far beyond my capacity.

Then why is the stock market continuing to skyrocket? There are several likely reasons, but I will suggest just a few.

First of all, there was an expected bounce off the bottom, because any good investor is going to buy low in the hopes of selling high. But add to this fact that over a trillion federal dollars (probably closer to two) still can’t be accounted for from the initial stages of this stimulus. I have a feeling the feds somewhere along the line are using that money to prop up stocks in order to keep things oiled. I have no evidence of that, and I am not a conspiracy theorist, but we do seem to be protecting the same big money (just a new form of leveraging) that got us into this mess. And if you analyze the headlines on market sites and television, you will note a decidedly positive bent toward the news when talking about the market.

There are also lots of shenanigans going on with the banking stocks right now that make me stay a million miles away. The gubment stimulated the price of financials with “good” news one week, then the next week all the banks came out with new stock offerings based on those higher prices in order to generate capital.

But I think the most important thing stimulating the market is that the mom and pop boomers who just got shook with the loss of 40% of their 401s are taking the money out of their mattresses and putting it into the stock market. They are taking their money out of savings, Christmas clubs, vacation funds, and wherever else they can find it, and investing it themselves in an effort to capitalize on the booming market. This, however, is a self-perpetuating euphoria, while they try to capitalize on double- and triple-baggers in an effort to restore their 401 losses. You get enough people doing that and the market can ride high for a while, but it is a house built on 1929 quicksand. Good luck when the next correction hits.

So why does everyone kick Alstry? It is because we really DO want to believe that this market system is the best in the whole history of mankind. And we certainly don’t want to have anyone peeing on our rose bushes when we are raking in 3% earnings per day on some stocks. How could this be wrong? This is America! And I am winning! Please stop telling me it is going to end! It can’t end! The market cannot possibly be wrong! It’s the market!

I don’t profess to be an investor, or a trader, and I don’t have any training in economics. I just read a lot. And I hope like hell there is something left besides debt to leave our grandkids. I have a months’ wages in my Scottrade account, and if I play it right I can be a millionaire by the end of summer, whether Alstry likes it or not!!!!!!!!!

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#34) On May 21, 2009 at 10:03 AM, ChrisGraley (29.86) wrote:

I agree with Alstry's prediction, but I knock Alstry anyway.

I would post why, but I'm sure it would be a violation of CAP's terms and conditions.

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#35) On May 21, 2009 at 10:50 AM, alstry (36.49) wrote:

Chris....you are just jealous that I am a better CAPs player than you.......but its OK....not many are as good as Alstry......

it is easy to understand your frustration....

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#36) On May 21, 2009 at 9:46 PM, ChrisGraley (29.86) wrote:

How you play CAPs has nothing to do with it. As I said, I agree with the bear predictions.

But given that you post the same over the top stuff 4-5 times a day, talk about yourself only in the third person, over-hype every post, and ignore people that bring it to your attention, just proves 1 thing.

Your are dying for attention.

Hopefully your making money in the market and if you are I suggest spending some of it on a good therapist.

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