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alstry (35.13)

Alstry's Peace Offering.....The World is Stressing....How do we fix the problem????

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June 06, 2009 – Comments (17)

Ireland's unemployment rate hits 13-year high of 11.8 percent; welfare claims at record high

Jobless Rate in Europe Rises Further:

Canada Jobless Rate Hits 11-Year High, Led by Plants

So maybe we shouldn't waterboard Geithner and Bernanke just yet........maybe we can help them out......

Possibly we CAPs players can come up with an idea that solves a problem that is getting worse???

Over the past 8 years, our government spending grew to $6.5 Trillion per year.  About $80K per family in America.  During that time, government enjoyed a surge in tax receipts from a credit bubble that drove revenues and profits to almost every sector of the economy....especially health care which now constitutes almost 20% of our economy.

The credit bubble popped and left a debt legacy suffocating our economy PLUS revenues have dried up to government......right now we are staring at a ONE YEAR $2.5-$3 Trillion dollar shortfall to Federal, State, and Local Government.  That is about $40,000 per family in America.......a sum that is not sustainable into the future since the total savings in America is not much more than $40K per family.

Interest alone on the accumlated debt, factoring Federal, State, Local and Private totals about $3 Trillion dollars per year.........again, about $40K per family........an unsustainable number.

We are now seeing a rapidly increasing number of private and corporate bankruptcies....about 6,000 per day......and many municipalities are on the brink.

Our families are going bankrupt, our business shutting down, and our governments are out or running out of money.

If government tries to print, or borrow its way out of this mess, without a productive economy to support paying back the debt, the dollar will rapidly devalue and wages will never be able to keep up with rising prices.  Basically, we will make a problem much worse going from where many can't afford much to none being able to afford anything.

So what is the solution folks????....we are all sailing on the Titanic together......whether you are currently in First Class sipping brandy or down below feeling the coldness of the water gushing in.......if we do nothing.....soon we will all be swimming together.

Many of you have endured the excrutiating experience of readings Alstry's rants documenting the demise of our economy.....it is not too hard to see if you are looking in the right places......but enough is enough......it is now time to figure out a solution.....and since Washington has not been very effective so far......let's see what kind of creative actionable ideas CAPs players can generate.....

My guess is who ever comes up with the winning idea....he or she will have riches flowing their way for the rest of their lives......and many generations beyond.

17 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 06, 2009 at 9:01 PM, awallejr (83.74) wrote:

Talk about "bait and switch."  I thought finally you were going to make solid suggestions besides just saying "prepare."  Instead it was just another twist to doom and gloom us.

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#2) On June 06, 2009 at 9:08 PM, alstry (35.13) wrote:

No awallejr....just checking if you had a pulse and could contribute or simply what is obvious from your respnse.

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#3) On June 06, 2009 at 10:32 PM, alstry (35.13) wrote:

If we at CAPs do nothing....millions of higher paying government workers could lose their jobs....accellerating the contraction

the credit bubble drove government growth......now that the bubble popped we are left with tens of trillions in legacy debt, shrinking incomes, and evaporating tax receipts......

without any action....expect to see hundreds of Alstry posts like this after July 1st when new budgets begin:

CLEARWATER — Clerk of Court Ken Burke gave 39 employees pink slips Friday as spending cuts begin to pare the ranks of Pinellas County workers.

Another 40 employes lost their jobs in layoffs at Pinellas Business Technology Services this week. They were forced to immediately leave the county agency for security reasons.

On Monday, more than 200 additional employees will learn that they will lose their jobs by the fall in notices sent by County Administrator Bob LaSala.

"Morale has definitely been higher. … This is a very high-stress time. A lot of people are scared," technology director Paul Alexander said.

More than 780 jobs will be cut from the entire county payroll when the next budget year starts Oct. 1, a 12 percent cut from a year earlier. The employees that remain will make up the smallest work force under the County Commission and the administrator since 1988, according to a budget report this week.

It also will be the smallest work force since 2005 for Burke, Sheriff Jim Coats, other independent agencies and elected officials.

The punctured economy and state-mandated property tax reductions have led to an $85 million reduction next year in the county general fund, which is used to pay for salaries and many government services. LaSala asked departments to slash their budgets by 20 percent.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/workinglife/article1007835.ece

CALIFORNIA MUST CUT $24.5 BILLION....

ABOUT 300 TIMES GREATER THAN ABOVE

It is easy to see why a lot of people are scared.  We need a solution soon or this mess will turn into a disaster.

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#4) On June 06, 2009 at 10:59 PM, ajm101 (31.81) wrote:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/06/06/obama.threat.arrest/index.html

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#5) On June 06, 2009 at 11:08 PM, OneLegged (< 20) wrote:

We need to be happy with fewer government services.

 

AND.....How about this as a tip-of-the-iceburg start:  Congress takes a 40% pay cut.  Congressional members still get their health care benefits, but the deductable goes to $10,000.  (these are relatively wealthy folks for the most part, $10,000 is no big deal) to reduce the cost to the taxpayer.  Congressional pensions are no longer available: Cancelled!  Expense accounts per member get slashed to $750,000 per year per member (down from the current $2,000,000 per year!)  Again...this is just for starters.

 How 'm I doing........? 

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#6) On June 06, 2009 at 11:15 PM, alstry (35.13) wrote:

We have over 20,000,000 workers that are directly employed by Federal, State and Local government.....and those workers are paid much higher than average.....

The nation's 16 million state and local government workers form a large, growing, and well-compensated class in society. State and local workers earned $36 per hour in wages and benefits in 2005, on average, compared to $24 per hour for U.S. private-sector workers, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employer Costs for Employee Compensation Summary, published December 9, 2005.

Add in over 5 million Federal workers and we have a lot of people who are directly paid by the taxpayer in America...

Now that tax revenues are evaporating......and governments are routinely cutting budgets by 20%......and government spending totalled about $6.5 Trillion.....or about half of $13 Trillion GDP...

Imagine the GUARANTEED drag on the economy as spending slows on practically everything and millions of jobs cut.....

Just the job cuts from government and concurrently from the private sector due slowing of government spending could exceed 10 million workers over the next year......then add in the millions of spouses that will likely have to enter the workforce and we could easily see U3 unemployment exceed 25%.

We must come up with a solution soon or a Depression will be Guaranteed.

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#7) On June 06, 2009 at 11:27 PM, GNUBEE (24.46) wrote:

Sponsor a Global Logans Run.

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#8) On June 07, 2009 at 12:35 AM, awallejr (83.74) wrote:

Here's a thought, how about you try to come up with that "winning" idea instead of spamming end of the world blogs everyday.

Alstry : "then add in the millions of spouses that will likely have to enter the workforce and we could easily see U3 unemployment exceed 25%."

Yet you predicted U3 to cap at 11% here, comment 5.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=190126&t=01002130057764754273

Keep exaggerating and spinning.

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#9) On June 07, 2009 at 12:47 AM, alstry (35.13) wrote:

That was before I factored the millions of layoffs from government  and the millions more private sector from government spending cuts and the millions of spouses likely to start searching for work and counted as unemployed......

No exageration....it will be 11% U3 w/o the impact of the govt cuts....25% with govt cuts.......what can I say....things keep getting worse......

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#10) On June 07, 2009 at 12:51 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Ireland's unemployment rate hits 13-year high of 11.8 percent; welfare claims at record high


SHAWN POGATCHNIK, Associated Press Writer
5:29 AM PDT, June 5, 2009


DUBLIN (AP) — Ireland's unemployment rate hit a 13-year high of 11.8 percent in May as a deepening recession pushed the welfare lines to record lengths, the Central Statistics Office reported Friday.

The report said the number of people claiming jobless benefits has nearly doubled over the past year to 397,000, an unprecedented high dating back to the foundation of the Irish state in 1922.

-----------------------------

(from the first link of this post)

-----------------------------

Population 1901 - 2006

1901
3221823
1911
3139688
1926
2971992

1936
2968420
1946
2955107
1951
2960593
1961
2818341
1971
2978248
1981
3443405
1991
3525719
1996
3626087
2002
3917203
2006
4239848

-----------------------------

(from here)

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#11) On June 07, 2009 at 3:27 AM, mliu01 (< 20) wrote:

On this titanic, there is no kids and ladies first.

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#12) On June 07, 2009 at 3:48 AM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Irish unemployment reached 28% of the insured workforce in 1938 (see here).

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#13) On June 07, 2009 at 4:35 AM, awallejr (83.74) wrote:

Yes Alstry keep changing your numbers to suit a given thread I suppose.  Was pretty funny when you cried the "numbers lied!" when U6 didn't outpace U3 last month.

So just to be clear, you are now predicting U3 to hit 25%?

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#14) On June 07, 2009 at 9:29 AM, jddubya (< 20) wrote:

Alstry -

Solutions that may be suggested here are worthless.  No matter what happens day to day, week to week, month to month - those that are in power will control the outcome.  That's why we (supposedly) voted for them.   How can you even imply that the few hundred active bloggers here can have ANY effect on this country's economic direction?

And besides, Alstry[nomics] already has the grand solution.

One more thing - you told TDRH "...but I am about to kick your backside at the core of what CAPs is all about...scoring.."

Did you accomplish this?  Huh?  Did you?

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#15) On June 07, 2009 at 11:13 AM, jgseattle (34.08) wrote:

My one idea is to get away from fractional banking.  As you posted in one of my blogs, money is created by debt.  I since money is backed by the "full faith and credit" of the US Government.  (talking about the USD)  Then when this money is created the entity that gains should be the US Government not the bank. 

The alternative.  Spend money into exsistance.  The US government spends money and then that money is lent in a 100% reserve banking system.

Think about this some and you will see it could work and has worked in US history.  (Civil War times)

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#16) On June 07, 2009 at 1:24 PM, awallejr (83.74) wrote:

Just a FYI, NYS and NYC unemployment rate has actually DECREASED and Walmart is planning on adding 22,000 NEW jobs!!!!!

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#17) On June 12, 2009 at 3:49 PM, Londamania (62.19) wrote:

The most important thing anyone can do to help this - and it is something we all can do - is not panic.  Only if we panic will truly terrible things befall us.  Unfortunately Alstry you don't really help out in this critical area. 

Whatever happens the reality of it won't be nearly as bad as the fear of it unless you happen to have the misfortune of being in a landing craft in France around this time in 1944 (for that carnage truly was horrible).  Unless we see something like that on the horizon - and I don't think we do - we all just need to knuckle down and help out our neighbors through whatever happens.  Like Americans have done for generations.  I am still not sold that any of this is really going to happen the way it is proclaimed here, but if it does, the best and only thing you can do to get through it is buckle down and take it day to day.  The sun is still going to come up in the morning, and a whole bunch of food is still going to get grown each year. 

And everyone dies someday.  It's a great reason to try to have a relationship with some version of God.  If it gets real bad and it's your turn to go - try to do it in a way that helps out someone next to you.  You can choose to go out on top even at that point.

All we really have to fear is fear itself.  It was true then, and it is true now. 

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