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May 09, 2009 – Comments (25)

The Institutue of Alstrynomics is simply documenting the shutting down of the American Economy.

There are a number of areas of relevant evidence that support such a conclusion despite any headlines in the press to the contrary.....with the most important including:

Job Losses

Businesses Shutting Down

Shrinking Tax Revenues

Evaporating Imports and Exports

Debt Defaults

Bank Failures

Home Foreclosures

Commercial Vacancies

Misleading Headlines will be objected to by Alstry and dismissed by the Institue if deemed appropriate under the Institutes Rules of Evidence 1-01a.

For example here is one by Bloomberg yesterday.

U.S. Loses 539,000 Jobs, Fewer Than Forecast, in Sign Economy Stabilizing

Objection:  Misleading per rule 1-01a.

When over half a million jobs are lost in a single month, that is evidence that an economy is DETERIORATNG.....not stablilizing.  With tens of millions unemployed or underemployed, if half a million jobs were created in a month, one might conclude at that point that the economy may be stablizing.

JUST BECAUSE WE ARE DRAGGING OUT THE PATIENT'S DEATH, IT DOES NOT MEAN HE OR SHE IS GETTING BETTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Right now our economy is shutting down across America.  It has not shut down yet....but it is shutting down as a result of the FU virus becoming a pandemic.  Think of it like a rapidly growing cancer and right now it is metastasizing throughout the body......if it is growing rapidly, just because you may be focused on the pancreas, lung, or brain and there is no evidence of cancer in those organs yet......if the cancer is growing, the patient is getting closer to death.

Right now, the deterioration in our economy is spreading as more and more contract the FU virus.....

We are likely to loose between 5000 and 10,000 auto dealerships simply from the downward adjustment in auto sales.  Experts tell us that well over 100,000 retailers are likely to shut down as the FU virus spreads.  Although symptoms are not limited to above, this is strong evidence that the virus is no where near contained.  Will putting up a bunch of windmills be sufficient chemo or sufficient antidote to the virus....it seems unlikely.

When more people lose their jobs, that is deterioration....depsite what anyone tells you.

When more businesses shut down, that is deteriortion....despite what anyone tells you.

When foreclosures are continuing, that is deterioraton.....depsite what anyone tells you.

When office vacancies are rising, that is deterioration.....despite what anyone tells you.

When imports and exports are evaporating, that is deterioration.

When tax revenues are shrinking......the economy is sutting down.

Alstry has made his diagnosis and the Instutite has determined that Toxic Borrower Syndrome has morphed into a virus that can be transmitted Human to Human called the FU virus which has officially entered the Pandemic Stage.

Alstry has warned you to prepare for this virus....ever since his warnings, the virus has spread far and wide when few were even aware of its existence.....no one is sure about the cure, however prudent steps to preventing any disease is always a good first step.

As Alstry is the doctor of Alstrynomics.....he will continue to monitor and diagnose the disease.....any consultations, regardless of perspective, from any CAPs players is always encouraged and appreciated during this pandemic.

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 09, 2009 at 9:44 AM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

Here is another MISLEADING headline from the AP:

Evidence piling up that worst of recession is over

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2009/05/08/20090508biz-economy0508.html

PILING UP???????

Is this sentence misleading???? 

A better-than-expected unemployment report Friday - job losses declined to the lowest level in six months......

We actually know that job losses increased by over half a million people in April....that is over half a million MORE people that lost their jobs in April that had jobs before......and if you add in upward revisions and temporary census jobs.......one could fairly opine that April losses was one of the highest levels in the past six months.

What kind of stuff do you think the AP is piling up on you????

LEARN HOW TO CRITICALLY ANALYZE WHAT IS PRESENTED TO YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Could you imagine a doctor saying, last month the cancer spread to three organs, this month it only spread to two more????? 

If the cancer is spreading, the patient is dying.

If the FU virus is spreading, the economy is shutting down. 

You may not feel it yet, but if this trend continues.......be prepared.

 

 

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#2) On May 09, 2009 at 10:00 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

"We actually know that job losses increased by over half a million people in April....that is over half a million MORE people that lost their jobs in April that had jobs before...."

My work is done with you.  You finally accept how the unemployment stats really work in that NET increasing is how you calculate.

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#3) On May 09, 2009 at 10:13 AM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

That is because those people who lost their jobs in October and are still unemployed are not counted as unemployed in the statistics.

I am sure if you walked up to them, or queried their children, and asked whether they are still unemployed.........you would respond "YES"

You seemingly don't give a damn about those people who have been unemployed for over six months, or barely scraping by on part time work....for some reason you don't think they are human.....and believe they shouldnot be counted nor their distress considered.

You are an amazing blogger.

That is your perrogative in a free society.....it is just simply a reason why you and I could never be social friends.....but that is OK and you are free and encouraged to express your opinions on my blog anytime.

Further, if you actually looked at the logic of my statement.....with over 600K filing for unemployment benefits in EVERY WEEK of April FOR THE FIRST TIME.....over 2 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in April which would be consistent with my statement of over half a million.

Frankly, I am not sure of you point....if you have one to be made.

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#4) On May 09, 2009 at 10:45 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

What the hell are you blathering about?  My comment has nothing to do with my feelings towards those out of work. You really have issues.  I've been the one trying to argue postives. I've been the one agreeing with governmental interventions in order to limit the damage, unlike you and others that prefer the markets to collapse and self-correct, despite the fact that doing so would hurt millions.  You are the one that just blogs repetitive and intentionally or not misleading facts and how the Country is doomed.  You are the one that actually ROOTS for bad numbers.  Sell your spin to someone else.

 

You've finally illustrated that net numbers is how you calculate unemployment, and now again you are saying your OWN calculation is wrong? Everyone unemployed  never find new jobs?  You forget that in your other blogs you were arguing that about 2.5 million people in April lost their jobs.

We could never be social friends because I think you are a lunatic with a very strange agenda.

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#5) On May 09, 2009 at 10:58 AM, Mary953 (80.04) wrote:

I know "Alstry's role on CAPS".  It is to run around three or four times a day shouting, "THE SKY IS FALLING!  THE SKY IS FALLING!" 

Well, guess what.  If you start each day saying that the market will go crashing down, eventually you will be right.

If you coast up to a traffic light that has turned red and say it's going to turn green repeatedly, then Yes, Alstry, eventually, the traffic light will turn green.

Eventually, if you keep repeating that something will happen and if that thing is a natural part of some normally occurring pattern, you get to be right.  You, Alstry, are the only one I know of that demands deification for figuring this out.

Our country is vast.  Our economy is complex.  Our businesses are numerous.  At any one time, businesses are cutting back, going out of business, instituting hiring freezes, laying people off.  IF YOU LOOK,  other businesses are starting, growing, hiring people, expanding.

Alstry - YOU DON'T LOOK!  YOU DON'T CARE!

You enjoy your role as "the bad boy of CAPS" - your words, not mine.  You like bringing bad news, defeatism, pessimism, and despair.  You enjoy upsetting people by repeating as much bad propaganda as you can find.  You seek it out and give it airplay in big bold type.  You claim all bad news as your personal property as part of some pretend version of pseudo-semi-science that you name for yourself. Then you use your CAPS score as validation as though that means something grand about your economic abilities.

Given the number of times that you have been cornered and trotted out the "Alstry is a character that is just for my amusement on CAPS" line, I thought that your title indicated that you were stepping out from behind the character for a change.  My mistake.  Same song, another of the endless repetitions.  You are boring.  A one trick pony.

Awallejr, don't waste your time here.  Having read your comments and insights elsewhere, you have more to offer than to spend time sparring with a jello opponent. 

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#6) On May 09, 2009 at 10:59 AM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

You forget that in your other blogs you were arguing that about 2.5 million people in April lost their jobs.

I opined that in this blog as well.

EACH WEEK in the month of April, over 600K people filed for FIRST TIME unemployment benefits.....how many people do you think lost their jobs in the month of April if each week over 600K were filing for unemployment benefits for the first time EACH WEEK?????????

Alstry may be a luntic....actually, I like the lunar phases, nothing like sitting around the fire on a full moon telling stories while drinking a red ripe delicious fantasticly flavor injected bloody mary on a cool night.

By the way, as the Doctor of Alstrynomics, it is my belief and diagnosis that the current course of treatment by the government is going to make things worse....not better.  Not only that, there are a few other very smart guys that agree with me.....unless of course you have a passion to be a zombie as a result of zombie banks creating a zombie nation.

Just curious, what is your educational background and current occupation?

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#7) On May 09, 2009 at 11:08 AM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

Mary,

Alstry is simply a Doctor of Alstrynomics and calls things as he sees them.....and more accurate than most....but Alstry is always obliged to acknowledge the excellent work of others like DWOT, JGus, Abitare, Mish, Denninger, Taleb, Roubini and more.  

You can agree or disagree....but when a third of your neighbors are out of a job, or a major war or pandemic makes economic issues meaningless.....at least you know you were warned to prepare......

I wish I could change the facts, but they are what they are and it is my role to provide a clear perspective of them and where I think they are going.

Who knows, it may not be of any benefit anyway......but some at least like to have a heads up....and that is what Alstry does...give a heads up.

Get ready for a very exciting SUMMER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By the way, another bank was shut down yesterday quietly in the evening.....do you know if any are opening????

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#8) On May 09, 2009 at 11:49 AM, jddubya (31.97) wrote:

Since Alstrynomics is all about being right all of the time could you please comment on the unemployment numbers released yesterday as it relates to what Alstry[nomics] is all about?

And could you please explain how your blog on 4/30/09 titled "Alstry Calling the TOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" where it contains the comment "Right Here Right Now.......DOW about 8300" also relates to Alstrynomics and being right all of the time?

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#9) On May 09, 2009 at 11:53 AM, SolarisKing (37.19) wrote:

I love alstry.

For one, i don't think alstry is wrong. But even if i did, or he is, i love it anyway.

But asltry is not wrong. The fact is that this planet, and the USA in particular, has never seen anything close to what is going on now, and it's not a redlight. Even if the economy doesn't crash for years, when it does it will be cataclysmic for the USA hegemony.

If there is any country in the world that is handling the economy right (not environment, though they are almost the same thing in the end game) that country will win big as the rest of the world collases.

China? Australia? India? Brazil? That's not a list, it's a question.

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#10) On May 09, 2009 at 1:36 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Alstry: "EACH WEEK in the month of April, over 600K people filed for FIRST TIME unemployment benefits.....how many people do you think lost their jobs in the month of April if each week over 600K were filing for unemployment benefits for the first time EACH WEEK?????????"

Alstry: "We actually know that job losses increased by over half a million people in April....that is over half a million MORE people that lost their jobs in April that had jobs before...."

You already answered it, which was my point for my initial reply in this thread.  But can't teach an old dog new tricks I suppose, and you go back to your old misleading calculations.

And Mary you are right.  I like reading blogs here. I don't mind people pointing out pertinent negatives.  It is important to know for investment decisions.  DWOT's blogs can be insightful, for example.  Even Arbitare can be.

 

I just got tired of seeing Alstry's misleading blogs, twisting and manipulating facts to suit his arguments.  I took him to task, not to convince him, but to, hopefuly, show the readers what he was doing.

 

He is stuck now on the whole 50% unemployment cries when I boxed him into a U3 11% cap.  And his 2 quotes I used above shows how his "just multiply weekly unemployment data by every week that has passed equals real unemployment" method is asinine. Doing that for just April would mean 2.5 million losses. 

Apparently he fails to understand that our economic system is not static.  That while jobs are lost, jobs are also created.  The key, in the end, is to get the NET change to rising.  That is what the Fed's are trying to do with the stimulus, and Governmental hirings.  But Obama is a smart man.  He understands that in the end the Private sector must retake the lead in job creation.  The Fed plan is just a bridge in order to stop the bleeding and push for improvement. 

And Alstry while you chased away some excellent bloggers, like Floridabuilder; and you better damn well not chase away Deej; just be mindful that I will be here calling out your bullshit from time to time.

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#11) On May 09, 2009 at 1:37 PM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

jddubya,

I did comment on a full blog about it.  It appears that the Department of Labor made a mistake in its calculations.  It wouldn't be the first time.

Expect major revisions upwards in the months ahead....as we have had major revisions upwards in months past....

the beat goes on and on and on........

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#12) On May 09, 2009 at 1:45 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Alstry: By the way, another bank was shut down yesterday quietly in the evening.....do you know if any are opening????

Had to respond to this comment.  Quite a few banks are opening.  Hudson Valley, HSBC, Slavic credit union all opened branches near me this last year. And those banks that are closing don't just "poof" they get absorbed into other banks.

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#13) On May 09, 2009 at 2:17 PM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

I didn't say branches...I said  NEW  banks....HSBC is laying off thousands of workers.....as far as the Slavic credit union......do you get a free hockey stick when you open an account?

Again...you seem to like to hide from the FACTS...my guess is that this is a common and recurring theme in your life.....I wish I could help you in that area but this is not the forum.......let me repharse the question since you seem you like to fantasize about yourself in your failure to analyze the facts....

If over 600K workers filed for FIRST TIME unemployment EACH WEEK in the month of April, and April had four weeks, how many people lost their jobs in the month of April??????

Let me get you most of the way there.....How much more than 2.5 million do you think?????

If you fail to answer this question....it's OK...it is simply a reflection of your incompetence.....but your comments are always welcome on this blog.

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#14) On May 09, 2009 at 2:41 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

You are simply obtuse.  The concept of NET numbers eludes you.  And yet again I will reprint your own quote from THIS thread.

Alstry: "We actually know that job losses increased by over half a million people in April....that is over half a million MORE people that lost their jobs in April that had jobs before...."

You want to play games on corporate existence versus new branches, well fine spin again.  Those new branches meant, omg, NEW jobs.

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#15) On May 09, 2009 at 2:47 PM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

Again...you simply refuse to answer the quesion about how many people lost their jobs in the month of April.....

You refuse to acknowledge that 2.5 million Americans filed  for unemployment benefits for the first time in the month of April. That 2.5 million Americans lost their jobs and claimed  unemployment benefits for the first time.  You don't even admit that millions of self employed Americans who are not working are part of the millions upon millions of unemployed and not counted.

You seemingly don't give a damn about them as you refuse to accept the facts or the truth.....And Alstrynomics is all about the truth and I think that is what bothers you.....you just can't handle the truth......and based on your persistence.....my guess is that you have been  running from the truth your whole life.....

And by the way....congratulions on bringing your score almost up to zero......I wish I could say the same for my performcance over the past few months.

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#16) On May 09, 2009 at 3:30 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Alstry I answered it with YOUR quote. Man you are thick.  Let me state it directly then: 563,000 according to the BLS.

Here I will reprint it:

 "The number of unemployed persons increased by 563,000 to 13.7 million in
April, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent.  Over the past 12 months,
the number of unemployed persons has risen by 6.0 million, and the unemployment
rate has grown by 3.9 percentage points."

Notice how they say over the last YEAR the unemployment increased by SIX million.  You arguing with a straight face that 2.5 million of that 6 million occurred in April then?  And take it further, if the weekly average for the past year was 500,000, you arguing that the increased unemployed therefore are 26 million and not the 6 million?

This is my last time going over this with you.  I stand a better chance teaching a 6 year old three dimensional euclidean vector space than teaching you simple arithmatic.

 

Spin on.

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#17) On May 09, 2009 at 3:43 PM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

Notice how they say over the last YEAR the unemployment increased by SIX million.  You arguing with a straight face that 2.5 million of that 6 million occurred in April then?

I NEVER said that.  You keep making things up and it is a lot of fun analyzing you.

The number of unemployed is a conclusion and not a FACT based on the interpretation of facts.  As I don't think you are an attorney, or one formally trained in logic..... I can understand how you fail to see this potentially confusing distinction.

The ONLY thing I said was over 2.5 million Americans filed, for the first time, unemployment claims in the month of April.  These factual figures were provided to me by the Department of Labor.   Based on your persistence at refusing to accept what I or the Department of Labor states, you only strengthen my position on how easy it is to fool people with statistics and headlines.....as a result, you have become my favorite blogger on CAPs.

Please feel welcome here anytime.....Alstry is a very charitable guy when it comes to teaching others the truth.

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#18) On May 09, 2009 at 3:47 PM, StopLaughing (< 20) wrote:

Adwallejr is right. Alstry has overstated the doom. Only 27% of the people who become unemployed stay unemployed after thier benefits run out. Evenutally they find jobs. Avevage wages are also weakly increasing. 

Net unemployment is not rocketing towards doomsville. It is bad but the unemployment is starting to bottom. It may be another few months to years before net unemployment goes positive.

Most important Asia is leading the way. They will come out of the recession before America. Since this is global, it is important not to just focus on America.

GM may (will) go bankrupt, the market may hit resistence at 930-950 on the S&P.  It may even correct downward but the banking system is not in a liquidity crisis. We have a banking system. It is more like a gov regulated utility than a free market system but it will function better than it did last year.

We may have inflation some place down the road. Oil may spike and the $ fall. We, the market and the governments will adapt. Life will go on and things will improve overall in the long run until the next crisis hits. 

Some day a Black Swan will land on Alstry and he will be right. However, this is not the time.

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#19) On May 09, 2009 at 6:20 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

From another blog of yours:

Alstry: "Alstrynomics:  OVER 600,000 NEW people filed for unemployment claims this week. . .  If we keeping termininating 600,000 people from their jobs every week for the rest of the year......30,000,000 Americans will lose their jobs."

You were clearly simply multiplying the weekly data and ignoring the concept of NET increases.  And you and I know why, you just want to exaggerate.

Now as I said in my very first reply in this thread, if you are finally acknowledging that NET monthly increase/decrease in unemployment is the number you use to determine the rate of unemployment then my work is done here.

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#20) On May 09, 2009 at 6:23 PM, briyan (30.75) wrote:

Don't forget about the Birth/Death adjustment which is added to the employment figures each month.

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Does anyone believe that 226,000 jobs were added by new business startups in the month of April?

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#21) On May 09, 2009 at 8:27 PM, alstry (35.09) wrote:

briyan,

I havn't even addressed birth/death adjustments with awallejr....we are still in first grade....that concept might simply overload his circuits if he knew that the BLS was adding millions of ficticious jobs simply by adding in jobs that really don't exist.

If he can't appreciate the concept of FIRST TIME weekly unemployment claims....how do you expect him to understand birth/death adjustments and the implication on reported unemployment rates.

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#22) On May 09, 2009 at 9:19 PM, StockSpreadsheet (71.81) wrote:

I don't agree that things will get as bad as Alstry says, (or that they are as bad now), but I feel I must jump into this arguement with one salient fact.  You all are arguing about the wrong number.  You should not be arguing about the UNemployment number, you should care more about the Employment number. 

The reason is simple.  The government stops counting people as unemployed for various reasons.  The only valid one is that they died. 

But the government also stops counting people as unemployed if they run out of unemployment insurance, they have given up looking for a job, (and have decided to be a stay-at-home mom/dad, whether by choice or by lack of available jobs), and for various other reasons.  It is for this reason that when the economy starts coming out of a recession, the unemployment number always jumps, as those people now start looking for jobs again and thus are added to the statistics.   

The government also uses "seasonal adjustments" on the unemployment numbers, (saying fewer people go seal clubbing in the summer time, for instance, or the fact that a lot of teachers are technically out of work, (due to summer vacation for all the school children)).  Therefore, the unemployment number can be manipulated in various ways which the government says is valid, though I would disagree on this point.

However, the Employment number should not have those fuzzy variables.  People either have a job or they don't.  (I know that some of those are part-time that want full-time work and can't find it, so they should only count as half a person for the employment rolls, (and should count as half a person if they were trying to calculate a valid UNemployment number), but I don't know how that number can be accurately assessed so I am ignoring that portion of the employed and just counting them as employed.  It is due to the lack of fuzzy math that I think if you are going to argue about a statistic from the Department of Labor, you should pay more attention to the Employment number and much less attention to the UNemployment number.

Just my two cents.

Craig 

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#23) On May 09, 2009 at 9:22 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

briyan  interesting link, however it involves "adjustments", a concept Alstry doesn't care to consider.  He just likes gross numbers because they have more shock value in his propaganda.

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#24) On May 09, 2009 at 9:27 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

And Craig that was where our discussion came in regarding U3 and U6.

Here's a link showing definitions of the "U"s and their ratios.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

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#25) On May 09, 2009 at 11:51 PM, StockSpreadsheet (71.81) wrote:

awallejr,

Thanks for the link, but those numbers are still unemployment numbers, which are fudged.  For more real numbers, I would suggest the following links:

 ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/aat1.txt

 ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea13.txt

The first link is yearly employment numbers.  You can see that our labor force grows by about 2M people per year, on average.  If you look at the difference between 2008 and April 2009, it shows a decrease of 500k in the labor pool and an increase of about 2M in the group "Not in Labor Force" that aren't counted in the unemployment numbers.  I think that is faulty statistics by BLM to make the numbers look better.  (Such as people not being counted as Unemployed after their unemployment insurance has run out.)  For more real Unemployment numbers, I think those people should be added back in.   If you do so, the unemployed goes from 13M to 15M, and the unemployment rate goes from 8.6% to about 9.9%, which I think is a more accurate number of the unemployed.  

Therefore, I think the U3 and U6 numbers are fairly meaningless, as I think they are "massaged", "rigged", "forged" or whatever adjective you want to use.  The employment numbers I think are much more accurate.  (Kinda like the difference between EBITDA earnings and GAAP earnings.  EBITDA earnings are fudged to take out the bad stuff, (like BLM takes out people that have given up looking for work due to the poor economy), but all the bad stuff has to be put back in for GAAP earnings, (which you can do on the employment numbers like I did above).)

Just my opinion on what number I think you should really be using in your discussions.

 

Craig 

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