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portefeuille (99.56)

ALTH

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7

March 07, 2011 – Comments (1)

It might be a good time to buy a few ALTH shares. ALTH shares are currently one of the larger positions of my "fund" (see here). There are currently 5500 ALTH shares in the fund with break-even of around $4.07. ALTH is at around $2.78 now.

zzlangerhans on ALTH.

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Nothing like a zzlangerhans pick to make a stock break out of recent range in the opposite direction. I had my eye on Allos to green thumb at around 4, the low end of recent range. The company just reported higher-than-expected Folotyn revenues and the EMEA has accepted the company's application for Folotyn for PTCL. The share price responded to my pick by establishing a new four-year low.

It's hard to establish a valuation for Allos. The company has an approved drug with increasing revenues and a reasonable cash base, making them a potential buyout candidate. European approval and additional phase III studies of Folotyn in PTCL and CTCL may continue to push Folotyn revenues higher, but there do not appear to be other pipeline compounds in clinical trials. Recent plans to expand Folotyn usage to lung cancer have been shelved after weak data. The low share price hides a sizable 380M cap after years of dilution, and the burn rate remains very high despite Folotyn revenues.

In short, I was hoping for a rebound in a range-bound stock and now I'm in danger of riding another leg downward. CAPS only play for sure unless the share price drops below 3 on a broad biotech pullback and quiet seas until the next quarterly earnings.

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(from here)

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 08, 2011 at 8:11 AM, topsecret10 (22.02) wrote:

Hi Port....  I have followed you for a long time here on the fool,you have made some great calls...  but, In this case the charts are too bad to Ignore. This stock Is In a one year downtrend and looking at the DMI + / DMI - and ADX relationship the trend still looks lower. Let the chart give the buy signal on this one.... TS

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