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alstry (35.64)

Altstry is an Optimist

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December 29, 2008 – Comments (8)

Let's get a point out of the way....

Yes...I believe the odds are extraordinarily high that we will experience a DEPRESSION worse than anything we experienced in the 1930s.

Do I think its the end of the world....not a chance.  I read in the WSJ about a Russian professor predicting the collapse of America.....is it a possibility????  Sure............Likely?????  Very Remote!!!

As a person, I have very simple tastes.  Give me a chance to be around my family, have a few friends who love to play poker, and be a trader(quite frankly I don't care what it is within certain moral constraints)......and most of my day is pretty much filled up with what I love to do.

We as a nation and a world for that matter are likely to go through some very difficult economic times.  Painful Yes!!!!!!  But not the end of the world.  I have little doubt that I have personally lost more money in a week than most CAPs members will save in a lifetime.  There is nothing fun about it......but generally it is not the end of the world.

What we are about to face as a nation (and world) is a natural clensing process found in economics or nature.  Excesses must be purged in order for new growth.  We are now in the purging process.......where it will take us is anyone's guess.......and my guess is a lot further than many are currently prognosticating.  The reason, because it was allowed to go much further than it should have based on the behavior of a few that will cause great pain for the many.

But when its done.....rest assured I believe it will eventually end.......the ride up will be growth like we have never seen before.....but this time with world markets opening up for many.

Again, trading is my game........I am very passionate about it.......few get to have as much fun working as I do............and I have friends in almost every profession including professional sports.....and I wouldn't trade their life for mine for a second.

The fact that we are about to face adversity is not something to fear.....it is something to prepare in order to mitigate the distress.  If we can help each other......than we should all benefit in the end......in the mean time I will try to rack up more points.

PS:  Next time a Russian professor discusses the collapse of America.......ask him to at least be fair and extend his logic throughout the world.

 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 29, 2008 at 1:17 PM, starbucks4ever (97.81) wrote:

Panarin is as good a professor as I am an austronaut.  Unfortunately,  some KGB people have very extravagant economic views, making them appear much stupider than the majority of their compatriots :)

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#2) On December 29, 2008 at 1:19 PM, Varchild2008 (83.93) wrote:

Strange day indeed:

1) Alstry's an optimist....???

2) SPF (Standard Pacific Corp):  Alstry's most hated stock in the stock market for 2008..... Is trading up big off an analyst upgrade.  ???

3) Russian Professors hate America and want it to collapse...

Err wait... #3 isn't such a strange surprise at all.

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#3) On December 29, 2008 at 1:27 PM, alstry (35.64) wrote:

Another excellent video........

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#4) On December 29, 2008 at 5:24 PM, blake303 (29.35) wrote:

Alstry is an optimist like Fred Thompson is an economist. Thompson should stick with acting.

RNC Speech:

"We are going to nominate the next President and Vice President of the United States of America. We do so while taking a different view of our country than that of the other party. Listening to them you'd think that we were in the middle of a great depression."

 

Republican Debate in Dearborn, Michigan October 9, 2007

Q: What will you do to ensure economic vibrancy in this country?

A: I think there is no reason to believe that we’re headed for a recession. We’re enjoying 22 quarters of successive economic growth that started in 2001, and then further in 2003 with the tax cuts that we put in place. We’re enjoying low inflation. We’re enjoying low unemployment. The stock market seems to be doing pretty well. I see no reason to believe we’re headed for economic downturn.

Q: The Dow and the S&P 500 are at record highs, and yet, 2/3rds of the people surveyed said we are either in a recession or headed for one. Why the angst?

A: Well, I think there are pockets in the economy. Certainly they’re having difficulty. I think you always find that in a vibrant, dynamic economy. I think that not enough has been done to tell the greatest story never told, and that is that we are enjoying a period of growth right now, and we should acknowledge what got us there and continue those same policies on into the future.

 

 

 

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#5) On December 29, 2008 at 5:29 PM, alstry (35.64) wrote:

Blake,

Great Find!!!!!!

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#6) On December 30, 2008 at 12:35 AM, jegr5347 (< 20) wrote:

Wait a minute! I thought we were done with subprime. I was ready for CMBS and Alt-A. 

The plunge in housing prices involving subprime loans may be deeper than widely accepted indices suggest, some analysts have concluded.

CreditSights Inc., an independent research firm, noted that over the past year, realized losses on subprime loans that borrowers have defaulted on have doubled to 52 percent.

“These lower recovery rates suggest that house price falls in subprime mortgages may be considerably larger than house prices indicate,” the research firm reports.

First-lien subprime mortgages that were liquidated in September had average realized losses of 52 percent of the original balance, CreditSights says. A year ago, liquidated loans had an average realized loss of 26 percent.

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#7) On December 30, 2008 at 4:38 AM, monksnake (39.02) wrote:

Who is Altstry?

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#8) On December 30, 2008 at 7:54 AM, FirebirdMan (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Altstry and  Blake, I loved both video's. Isn't it sad that we are spending money we don't have. It's like we manufacture money out of thin air. It's time for a reality check!

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