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Am i the one that called the top?

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October 01, 2009 – Comments (26)

I know that this correction might not be a freefall, and that we could bounce back . . .  though if christmas doesn't go well we could be in for quite a drop..  . . still, i am rather happy with my attempt to reposition my portfolio.

Here is my first top call on 09 09 09 (sound familiar?) where i spoke of reversal trends, and psychology.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=256114&t=01004382569071098967

And my second call on 9 15 09  where i used the title TOP! got a few more recs..
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=259755&t=01004382569071098967

And my third top call on 9 21 09, where i again called top, and gave more reasons, which got a few more recs, as other fools started to feel the same . .
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=263002&t=01004382569071098967

 Now i know that some folks called the top a month (or two) before, and that some called it on the 23rd (after the top), but i think my call on the 15th was one day before the high on the 16th. . . . Anybody closer, and before the 16th?

REC ME FOOLS ! !   ;-)

We are now below the first resistance level at 1041, and if we close below it we may be headed farther down. I am looking for about 1000 S/P with a bounce up before going towards 950 or less.

PS, so far i have been able to keep my accuracy above my high benchmark of 57%, WHILE GAINING 600 POINTS in the last week. To do so i had to close many positions i like, and many of them for between 0-5 points. 

wish me luck

-solaris

ps NEVER LISTEN TO ME. My score will show that i don't have the faintest idea what i'm talking about.

26 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 01, 2009 at 3:10 PM, outoffocus (23.59) wrote:

Actually quite a few people called the top. I kinda called the top (like 5 months ago) when I said "if the DOW ever reach 10000 its the ultimate sell indicator".  But with all the crazyness in this market I'm done predicting the market.  Predicting individual stocks and commodities is more fun anyway.

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#2) On October 01, 2009 at 3:18 PM, SolarisKing (< 20) wrote:

Yes i know that thousands of folks called the top months ago (and the DOW didn't get to 10k (yet?) so you would be less right than i), and i know that fools called it generally, and or the week after, or the week before, or called it over and over and over.

What i mean, is that i never called it till i called it, and called it BEFORE it fell, but only one day before it fell (assuming this is a fall).

I also know that i will not likely be right again soon, so give me my props.  ;-)

much love to you and good luck, fool.

-solaris

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#3) On October 01, 2009 at 3:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

No, Solaris, you are not.

How can you even say you called it correctly when you first called it on 9/9/09, and between 9/9 and 9/22, the market went up 3.7%?????

Here is the guy who called it correctly on 9/23/09 in this post. Ever since, market is going down (5 red days out of 6 trading days).

He even predicted all of the market's movement much earlier in this post here.

Show some respect, solaris...please... :)

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#4) On October 01, 2009 at 3:20 PM, Bays (30.76) wrote:

ps NEVER LISTEN TO ME. My score will show that i don't have the faintest idea what i'm talking about.

lol

Keep up the good work, Solar.   I haven't had time to look at any of the new picks in the portfolio, but I will soon.  I might be ready to add another pick if we have a pullback.

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#5) On October 01, 2009 at 3:24 PM, outoffocus (23.59) wrote:

 also know that i will not likely be right again soon, so give me my props.  ;-)

Point taken. Congrats on your successful MOAP! (Mother of all Predictions)

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#6) On October 01, 2009 at 3:31 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

I forgot to say: I warned you Fools here too... 

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#7) On October 01, 2009 at 3:34 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

DLZ, for the sake of argument, i indicated a possible soon corrections on 9.9.9, getting ready for the top.

I called TOP on the 15th, the day before the TOP.

You called the top on the 23rd, a week late. heh heh.

-solaris

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#8) On October 01, 2009 at 3:34 PM, jstegma (29.50) wrote:

Not bad.  Not bad at all.  A rec for you.  Pretty good call.

 

Speaking of rec'ing good top and bottom calls, why not visit my blog and look on September 16 for my top call.  I was slightly early as usual and missed it by about 3 S&P pts on the close.  Then go back and rec my awesome bottom call from March 5.  Yeah, it was a couple of days early, but not bad, and the darn post only has 8 little recs.

I only have one post called "bottom" and one post called "calling top".  So far so good.

dragonLZ has a nice post on 9/23 nailing the top, but he also had a lot of comments on my 9/16 blog about how the S&P was going to 1100.  

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#9) On October 01, 2009 at 3:44 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

jstegma (99.49) Let it be known, i think you are one of our best.

I have said similar things to DLZ (though i also saw himcall for S/P 1100, I THINK).

In fact, knowing my betters is one of my few gifts. lol.

Now that i know you only call Top/Bottom when you mean it, i will be watching to add your indicators to mine (since you've been right twice, and i've only been right once.

That's the cool thing about me being right. I think i might be starting to get this stuff a little. I'VE NEVER BEEN RIGHT BEFORE ABOUT A MARKET TURN. 

-solaris

 

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#10) On October 01, 2009 at 3:52 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

Stegma and solaris, you are not right.

I was talking / betting (on stigma's blog) about 1100 by the end of the year, not now. I still stand behind it (willing to bet)...

p.s. I even gave stigma 1180, everything below he wins. See in my posts that I expect to start another run up at the end of October... :)

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#11) On October 01, 2009 at 4:00 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

DLZ. Yes i know you are good. thanks for all your work, and your patient and humble attitude. I've been watching how you cultivate a circle of friends.

By the way, his name is Stegma, not stigma. 

Boy, your fun. Have you ever thought of being a comedian?

I'm not good at comedy. Folks always think i'm being an A$$.

Did i mention yet that i think your rather good at CAPS/market?

-solaris

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#12) On October 01, 2009 at 4:01 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

Closing on momentum at the days lows, below resistance.

Could be a sign of more to come.

-solaris

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#13) On October 01, 2009 at 4:03 PM, jddubya (61.66) wrote:

LOL - +1rec for not being Alstry

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#14) On October 01, 2009 at 4:12 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

"That's the cool thing about me being right. I think i might be starting to get this stuff a little. I'VE NEVER BEEN RIGHT BEFORE ABOUT A MARKET TURN."

What if this isn't a market turn?  The Dow could surge 200+ points tomorrow and continue rising.  I actually think you could be right, but I'd wait a bit longer before declaring that you're "right".  Without timing the bottom now after such a small turn, the top call could be worthless...unless the decline is very large.

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#15) On October 01, 2009 at 4:16 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

I actually hope you're right.  I started new short positions last week...up about 10% since...just back to even after losing on short positions earlier in the month.

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#16) On October 01, 2009 at 5:08 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

davejh23 (< 20) Of course your right, but wow, didn't i qualify my statements enough during this very post? How about my first sentence?. . . .

 I know that this correction might not be a freefall, and that we could bounce back . . . 

Or my close to the original post...

ps NEVER LISTEN TO ME. My score will show that i don't have the faintest idea what i'm talking about.

Or in comment #2...

(assuming this is a fall).

Hope this clears things up for you.

Much love and good luck to you.

-solaris

 

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#17) On October 01, 2009 at 5:13 PM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

Hey share the love...I believe my chart which I posted here

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=266280&t=01000748434556361960

Not only called the top but described the action that we have seen since then using a math equation...I know crazy.

Port1

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#18) On October 01, 2009 at 5:22 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

Well done Mark910 (< 20). What is your approximate target for the next bounce?

-solaris

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#19) On October 01, 2009 at 5:57 PM, Mark910 (< 20) wrote:

The equation says about 1008 this downward movement changes to the next move.  That said, it is just a fit on historic data and cannot predict the future.  I am working to refine it but at this point I think it is useful only as a possible scenario.  I actually think another choice is that we have just completed the small hook and now a major move down that would give us a cascading parabola in the opposite direction.  Its just lines.

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#20) On October 01, 2009 at 6:12 PM, ChrisGraley (30.25) wrote:

I jumped in on the 23rd as well, but I've relly been calling for it since May, so it doesn't count.

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#21) On October 01, 2009 at 6:49 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

As you say Mark, it's hard to predict. I am looking for a 'head and shoulders'ish type form with a bounce around 1,000, and then the possible 'big fall'.

I am trying to play both sides though, for a while (and so far doing fairly well).

ChrisGraley (99.22)  I read your post on the 23rd. I really think your one of our better analyst (but i wouldn't know so don't let that swell your head ;-0  ).
   One irony (if i turn out to be really correct) is that i took a lot of my catalyst for the call from the way the market turned three times on my accuracy score reaching 58%+.  lol

Also though, i watch the futures markets, which are a huge groupthink.

-solaris

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#22) On October 01, 2009 at 8:44 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

#7) On October 01, 2009 at 3:34 PM, AllStarPortfolio (91.02) wrote:

DLZ, for the sake of argument, i indicated a possible soon corrections on 9.9.9, getting ready for the top.

I called TOP on the 15th, the day before the TOP.

You called the top on the 23rd, a week late. heh heh.

-solaris

 

 

Solaris, how can yoy say that top was on the 15th when S&P was 1052, and 1071 on the 22nd. On 23rd, it started going down (remember the reversal on that day)...? Didn't I say: some respect, please...

p.s. I love you too... :)

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#23) On October 01, 2009 at 10:26 PM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

DLZ.

Hmmmm, well as i have admitted many times, you are much smarter than i.

But just for the sake of argument. . . i didn't say the top was the 15th, i said i called it the day before the top on the 16th.

I was taking my numbers from here

and where i am sure you are right (as you always have been, and always will be) it looks to an amature like me that yahoo says on the 16th the high was 107.32 on the SPY (yes i know you are right and i am wrong, you are smart, and i'm not, you're a pro and i'm a novice, you know what your doing and i got lucky), and on the 23rd it was 106.18.

Frankly, i only know how to buy SPY, and don't know any way to buy ^GSPC, BUT

And here , it looks to me (an amature) like the ^GSPC was at 1068.78 on the 16th (early), and at 1060.87 on the 23rd (late). For all we know you took your call from me.   ?

Between the two numbers, i was closer to the 1071.66 on the 22nd, AND i was early (which is useful to us amatures). So where someone smart like you may have made a lot of money between 1068.78 and 1071.66 in four working days, i would rather be .003 off the top (your call was farther from the top) and early, so i had a few day to re-arrange my portfolio.

How much respect do you want? I have said in a dozen post on a dozen fools blogs that you are a great trader, and seem to know what you are talking about with the stats. Would you be satisfied if i wrote a sonnet proclaiming my respect for you?
  

Don't worry though, i have a healthy self image, so you won't need to pamper me like a baby by constantly re-affirming my respectability. 

-solaris

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#24) On October 01, 2009 at 11:47 PM, dragonLZ (99.69) wrote:

solaris, I hope you are not mad (even though you sound so).

I was just kidding about the respect thing. And I honestly meant "I love you" as you wrote some very nice comments about me. I really do appreciate that. I mean, who does that nowadays. You are so nice, and I honestly mean it.

Sory if I was disrespectful. Now, I feel bad.

You know how they say: You've got nothing if you've got no friends (or something like that)...

Sorry.

p.s. I'm going to punish myself with 7 days of no commenting on other people's blogs. I will also refrain of commenting on my own blog unless I have to say something about a stock or the market.

Good Luck! 

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#25) On October 01, 2009 at 11:55 PM, topsecret09 (38.86) wrote:

#24) On October 01, 2009 at 11:47 PM, dragonLZ (97.50) wrote     p.s. I'm going to punish myself with 7 days of no commenting on other people's blogs. I will also refrain of commenting on my own blog unless I have to say something about a stock or the market.    Stop It... your killing me.........    LOL   !!!!!!#!@#$

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#26) On October 02, 2009 at 1:37 AM, AllStarPortfolio (38.77) wrote:

dragonLZ (97.50) I already warned you, i think, that i am terrible at humor. In fact, you might call me humorously challenged. It's a sort of hidden disability.

So instead of thinking i'm mad, or taking offense, just think "poor little solaris, he was born with an undeveloped sense of humor".

I hope your just joking about the no blogging thing. My CAPS score will suffer seriously without you to kibitz off of.

 topsecret09 (53.80) I don't know which of us was funnier, but i think it was you!

-solaris

much love, and good luck

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