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alstry (36.12)

America shutting down....FAST!!!!!!

Recs

14

December 17, 2008 – Comments (15)

Chrysler to shut assembly lines for at least a month

Ford adds a week of idling at 10 plants: reports

Western Digital to cut 2,500 jobs, lowers outlook

Aetna to cut 1,000 positions in downsizing

Idling plants.  Cutting workers.  Closing stores.  Swindling investors.  Each day another piece of our economy is sliced off.  Each month is worse than the next.  Mathematically it will continue to deteriorate.

We will have millions of  workers idle this holiday season due to shutdowns.

If you think the news now is bad....just wait.  Until we restructure.....it will only get worse as jobs lost and closed businesses will have few to replace them.  Food banks are running out of food.....and the frequency of suburban visitors is rising rapidly.

And we have some idiots on TV saying we are at the bottom.  Nothing could be further from the truth if we continue down this same path. 

 

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 17, 2008 at 10:05 PM, JGus (28.85) wrote:

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), in its most recent forecast, expects that 6,100 chain stores will shutter this year, the highest level since 2004 "as the U.S. recession continues to take its toll on the retail sector and its job market."

In 2009, the ICSC estimates that store closings could exceed 3,100 in just the first half of the year. However, the number of potential closings rises exponentially when the firm takes into account both public and private sector businesses.

The ICSC projects that about 148,000 retail establishments - both public and private - will go out of business this year and another 73,000 stores will close in the first half of 2009.

The ICSC projects that about 625,000 retail jobs will be eliminated this year "with little change in the pace for early 2009."

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#2) On December 17, 2008 at 10:22 PM, Slickwilly2184 (28.99) wrote:

OMG!!!!!  The world is coming to an end!!!!! Everybody RUN!!!!!  Do you realize that there are 350,000,000 people in the United States of America?  1,000 cut jobs here, 2,500 cut jobs there......that is just crazy!!!! such a large percent!!!  Obama is about to drop 1 trillion dollars into rebuilding this country(not a supporter of him either).  

 You live your life in fear, everyday i read some b.s. about the world coming to an end from you.  Dude "Everything is going to be alright, Dont worry about a thing"  Times now are different then the 1920, technology now will keep the crazy stuff you talk about from happening now.

 I lived in a third world country for a while and until you do that you have no clue about what are really tough times.  But guess what.............those people's wealthy manage to find a way to continue to make the bills.   

You must be one miserable person b/c all you do is focus on the negative while ignoring the positive. 

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#3) On December 17, 2008 at 11:00 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

Slick....miserable is in the eye of the beholder.  Cmpared to the way I have felt after some evenings, right now  I am feeling pretty good.

You got me at a weak spot tonight because I just bottled buch beer this evening that I brewed a few weeks ago with a close  friend.  Actually, I am just about to pop open another one of those freshly brewed babies right now.  I have to say that the pale ale is  far more to my liking than the pilsner.......but after a few, do the subtlties really matter anyway?  It is all good when those bubbles are dancing down your throat.

You say I focus  only on the negative to reach your conclusion....could you identify the positives?

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#4) On December 17, 2008 at 11:02 PM, herky7575 (27.38) wrote:

It is people with views such as this (alstry) that make me feel confident in continuing to put money to work in stocks such as Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) and its 3.2% yield, McDonald's (MCD) and its 3.3% yield, and Altria/ Philip Morris (MO/PM) with their 8.4% and 5.2% yield, respectively .  Time and again, it has been proven that the best time to purchase stocks is when everyday people become so scared of the future they are afraid to invest.  If you buy well-run, fiscally sound companies and have a long time horizon for your investments, this time period will prove to be one of the best opportunities to invest.  I am not saying we are at a bottom, or making any such prognostication, but if you continue to contribute to your 401(k), Roth IRA, and taxable account(s), you will be well rewarded in due time.  As has always been the case, markets tend to overreact (both to the negative when times are tough and to the positive when times are good), so don't be shocked to see another 10%-20% drop, but if investing with a 5-10 year horizon (minimally), realize that now may be one of the best chances to set the odds of success in the stock market in your favor as an individual investor.  Buy solid, efficient companies that have a history of rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks, reinvest those dividends, and relax, it will all be OK!

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#5) On December 17, 2008 at 11:11 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

Herky,

I am not saying your wrong.  Nor am I saying you are right.  But I am saying just because she slept with you last night, and may be even the night before.....and maybe everynight since your honeymoon......it doesn't mean you are going to get lucky tonight....tomorrow or next week for that matter.

Until "civilizied" man discovered Australia....a Black Swan couldn't exist.....but the locals were playing with them for generations.......and look now....a Black Swan is a New York Times best seller.

Again, becareful about extrapolating data that may have worked before and applying it to the future....you don't want to be a turkey the day before Thanksgiving.

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#6) On December 17, 2008 at 11:16 PM, Slickwilly2184 (28.99) wrote:

alstry a true attorney at heart after all:) Man i just want you to take a chill pill!  The positive is that this is 2008 and the amount of information available now as opposed to then(1920s) is insane.  The education level of the average citizen is much higher.  Way more industries due to technology these days.  The government is dumping money into the economy(inflation yes.......hyper unlikely).  And many many more but i am drinking beers also so i dont feel like going into it.

Listen to some Bob Marley............and drink your cold brews!!!

 Dude i just want one positive post out of you b/c you sound like my brother.  He thinks the world is coming to an end.

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#7) On December 17, 2008 at 11:17 PM, daayoo (< 20) wrote:

Scary numbers there JGus. Slick thanks for reminding me to get short again soon..

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#8) On December 17, 2008 at 11:28 PM, herky7575 (27.38) wrote:

Agreed, but we have seen (in essence) this happen many times before, and every time in the past, the markets have recovered.  My money, literally, is on great companies-American and abroad- being just fine in the long term.  What I really want to get across is that an individual investor could choose a much worse time to begin to invest in stocks, or at least continue to invest in stocks than... say October 2007 or so!  :)

By the way, enjoy your beer.  I myself am sipping on a Crown Royal and Coke (Yes, I own Diageo and its 5.5% yield).  Have a good one! 

 

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#9) On December 17, 2008 at 11:33 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

Dude Mr. Willy,

I have never said the world is coming to an end....and if it is, making such a prediction would serve no mathematical benefit....so even though you may perceive I may be down, I still always play to win.

As far as your brother, he may be an intelligent man or in need  of prozac.  I am not an expert in this area on either account.  As far as listening to Mr. Marley, excellent choice for the right occasion. 

Back to your thesis....think about the items you identified...not a single one makes a difference one way or the other about which direction things are going.  Information....more doesn't mean better.  Education......lots of educated people have little common sense or the ability to apply that which they have learned.  Technology.....that means things can get destroyed faster due to efficiency.....doesn't necessarily lead to prosperity and can actually hinder prosperity.  Government printing....are you the recipient of any of that printing.....I thought not.

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#10) On December 17, 2008 at 11:44 PM, Slickwilly2184 (28.99) wrote:

Alstry esq.,

Information- you learn from the past and hopefully dont repeat mistakes.

Education- more business minded people who see opportunities with the closing of businesses to open their own better business.  with all the money and low interest rates being pumped into banks lending restrictions will ease.

Technology- can lead to prosperity........provides more food, energy, etc.  likely will help avoid any dire circumstances.

 

i guess we will have to agree to disagree. 

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#11) On December 17, 2008 at 11:47 PM, DaretothREdux (45.50) wrote:

Every world empire in history reached a point where they believed that nothing could stop their growth and progress, only to wake up one more (probably hung over from too much partying) to find everything they knew had been vanishing for years.

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#12) On December 17, 2008 at 11:55 PM, alstry (36.12) wrote:

Slick,

My guess is that you are pretty young and you are striving to climb up the ladder.  That is a great trait and I say "jump up mon" in the calypso sense of the word. 

But remember, after you have been knocked around a few times, you learn that almost every coin has two sides.....until some wisea$$ comes up with a coin shaped like a cube.

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#13) On December 18, 2008 at 12:12 AM, awallejr (81.36) wrote:

Couple months back you were crying 50% unemployment rate.  Sounded pretty much "world coming to an endish" to me. And while I do acknowledge 2009 is going to be a rough year, financials should be writing down less and less as time goes by.  We will know when the recession is over when we stop reading about those.  The market, however, will be 6 months ahead by then.

 

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#14) On December 18, 2008 at 12:15 AM, zygnoda (27.36) wrote:

Slick there is no doubt that  business come into being during recessions.  The point is that this is not an ordinary recession.  The system has a bad infection that has gone into the bone. 

You can try to prevent the brush fires but eventually one will come and burn out of control.

Times now are different then the 1920, technology now will keep the crazy stuff you talk about from happening now.

Things are different but that doesn't mean we cannot have a major economic crash.  Real estate was supposed to go up forever beacause we were in a "new era."  We didn't live in reality for years.  Hoping for miracles from technology might be an unrealistic appraoch.  Shouldn't the new technology of the early 20th century have saved man from the disaster that befell him in 1873?  You can assume it's different now (which it is), but I don't think it is necesarrily different in all the ways you believe it is.

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#15) On December 18, 2008 at 2:04 AM, Option1307 (29.89) wrote:

alstry & Slickwilly2184

You both have some valid points here and there is much to be learned from each's argument. I think the man point that can be concluded is that no one has any clue as to the direction of the economy/market. There are way too many uncertainties and unknowns in the market/world right now. The important, and most vital, aspect is to understand both sids of the argument. No one can predict the future, but if you are aware of the potential outcomes you will be able to react accordingly when the time has come. Learning and gaining knowledge is the best thing an investor (or anybody) can do right now.

I'd like to point out a few things:

Slickwilly2184

1) It took almost 25 years to recover the market highs from 1929. That means it took you 25 years to break even, ouch. This shows that there is a "wrong" time to invest.

2 I bet you a lot of people were claiming the worst was over in 1930 and palced big bets on the market, only to get completely hamemred.

3) Many people thought the Romans/Nazi's/etc. would never fail, oops.

alstry

1) Life will continue, don't forget this. It seems liek you haven't yet. I truely appreciate your enthusiasim for life you seem to continually have.

2) The USA has been in horrible, seemingly impossible, situations before and we always make it out alive, somehow. i.e. Revolutionary War (ok, we weren't technically USA yet), Civil War, The freakin' Great Depression, etc. We have a knack for pulling ourselves out from our grave site.

3) There are many people in the USA that do "get it" and will not let us fail and fall into oblivion...See many Fools around here on Caps for some quick examples.

 

While I'm mainly in the "our car has no breaks and we just topped Mt. Everest" group and see massive losses for all still to come. I truely respect all opinions and think that confronting therories are the best way to learn and be prepared for whatever may come our way.

Cheers to home brewing, still on my "to do" list...

 

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