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alstry (34.95)

An Alstry Update

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May 07, 2009 – Comments (7)

As I have been educating Awalljar, tommorow we are going to get the MONTHLY unemployment report and the report is likely going to be MUCH WORSE than expected even though most of the WEEKLY first time claims have been better than expected.  It will reveal that tens of millions of Americans are either unemployed or underemployed.....and that doesn't even count the millions of self-employed that are not working or making very little and NOT counted in the statistics.

In addition to cutting jobs, employers now at increasing rates are slashing wages making it very difficult for millions of families to meet their monthly budget.  Just ask most of the salespeople or waitstaff you know.  It is now hitting engineers, architects, lawyers and doctors.

We are seeing evidence of the distress with the article posted earlier today informing us that millions of American children are hungry, or earlier articles informing that generations of families are moving in together just to make ends meet.

We know that food banks are running out of food around the country....and now seeing middle class families that never used to frequent before.

We are also seeing record numbers of homes being foreclosed.  This time around, it is not limited to sub prime, but now we are moving up the social ladder to prime and jumbo prime.....on no...the rich....or nuvo rich.

Commercial RE debt defaults is now going parabolic.  Vacancies at shopping centers and office buildings are increasing every month.

Foreign trade is grinding to a halt....Japan's exports are DOWN almost 50% and our auto sales are down about the same over the last couple years.

New home construction is almost non existent with new starts running 1/5 of what they were just a couple years ago.

Now healthcare is beginning to lay off workers as revenues to hospitals and clinics are drying up....

The final shoe to drop will come this summer when many city, county and state budgets will be revised shocking many on how low revenues have actually slowed.  You should not be surprised if you see some pretty heated debates.

So are we at a bottom???  Alstry nor the Institute of Alstrynomics sees a shred of evidence supporting such a contention.  As a matter of fact....it is the Institute's position that things are getting dramatically WORSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I guess we shall get a glimpse tomorrow morning when the monthly numbers are reported......will we cross that dreaded 17% threshold even when weekly claims came in below expectations????? 

Could Alstry be right again????   Stay tuned and PREPARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You have been warned again and again and again and again and again.

 

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 07, 2009 at 4:23 PM, alstry (34.95) wrote:

GM loses $6 billion; sales halved

CBS Q1 rev $3.16 bln vs $3.65 bln

Consumer credit drops record $11.1 billion

Sure looks like we are hitting a bottom and banks are lending....

Prepare.

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#2) On May 07, 2009 at 4:26 PM, clanza875 (32.54) wrote:

Millions of children are hungry??

Yet childhood obesity is at an all-time high, go figure that one.

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#3) On May 07, 2009 at 4:54 PM, Rehydrogenated (32.24) wrote:

You're right, we should feed the fat unemployed to the poor starving children.

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#4) On May 08, 2009 at 1:28 AM, awallejr (85.56) wrote:

Was the opposite, was I trying to educate you.  But we will see tomorrow.  Lets see if U6 increases 5 to 1 over U3 tomorrow. 

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#5) On May 08, 2009 at 1:54 AM, awallejr (85.56) wrote:

P.S., you don't think that consumer credit drop link is a postive?

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#6) On May 08, 2009 at 10:53 AM, jddubya (35.18) wrote:

Since Alstrynomics is all about being right all of the time could you please comment on the unemployment numbers released today as related to this blog. 

And could you please explain how your blog titled "Alstry Calling the TOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" where it contains the comment "Right Here Right Now.......DOW about 8300" also relates to Alstrynomics and being right all of the time?

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#7) On May 08, 2009 at 3:13 PM, awallejr (85.56) wrote:

Today's U3 = 8.9, U6 = 15.8

Alstry prediction:  U3 caps at 11 (reasonable and actually more bullish than my 12% cap prediction), U6 caps at 50%  (asinine).

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