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An Analysis Request: IYR

Recs

11

January 06, 2010 – Comments (1)

My last post (Financially My Dear I Don't Give a XLF which I also posted on my Caps blog: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=322104) generated the same request from two different people (streetflame on Caps, and Gumbo on MTaA): To do an analysis of IYR.

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 06, 2010 at 10:15 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

First up, the long term chart. Read the notes in Green and Orange. From this view, the case can be made for a continued rally. But I think the evidence points more strongly to Primary Wave 2 (bullish correction) being complete.



Next is the count off the bottom. The IYR count is very corrective in nature. There are impulses where you expect C legs and in some of the A's. But overall it is a very corrective move. Also, per streetflame's request, I am showing the performance of KIE, KBE, and KCE. None are looking particularly strong at the moment. Insurance is holding up the best. And per my last post on finanicials, I think the are showing the most intermediate term weakness.



Here is a count since November. Based on this, I can count a pretty clean double three. Based on this, Primary 2 for IYR looks like it is done



Here is my micro count since the peak. I can count an impulse down and 2 looks like it is shaping up to be a deep retrace expanded flat (2's are usually zigzags, but they are more often deep retraces. Since this flat looks like it will be a deep retrace, having a flat in this position doesn't bother me)

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