Analysis of le portfolio de checkliste`
For the heck of it I thought I'd post my investments. For the most part its still a collection of stuff I bought in the first 3 months of 2009. And for the most part tahts a giant stack of financials.
1. Cash. Some of this will need to be devoted to 2. and 6., hopefully, this year.
2. Farmland. The best idea for a new business I have ever heard, with no apologies to any of my own, came from my long time biz partner about 2 years ago and we needed some land with which to execute it. Plus of all real estate holdings this is, by a mile, the most liquid and does anybodyreally think in the current environment we couldn't unload it in 3 days for break even or better? Plus it can generate a yield ofmaybe 5% with literally no work or effort or maintenance costs. And the taxes are emminently reasonable. please note: the best laid plans still frequently go awry
3. random stocks. DOW, TCK, RIMM, OTE, GGP, remnants of once huge casino positions, a basket of random REITs, this and that and way too many little positions in whatever, most held since 09, and many I am wanting to get rid of. many are hedged. Many are held fromearly 2009 including my only 40 bagger: GGP. Probably a good 30 names in this mess, many are hedged, most of these are going bye bye.
4. Lender stocks. The vast majority of these have been held since the first3 months of 2009,some added to in the july 2009 dip. MCGC, ARCC (largely from ALD purchases), PNNT, HTGC, PSEC (very small), AINV, WFC, USB, BAC (large), MS and several others. Inclucing the remnants of my 3 worst buys ever: NBG, IRE, AIB. I sold those off huge last year to harvest tax losses. For the most part, these positions aren't hedged, although slight hedging exists.
5. Insurance stocks. XL is the biggest position here, all shares bought in the first 3 mos of 2009 and held. HIG is the next largely also from 2009 but added to alot since. CNO from june/july 09. LNC from march 09, and traces of various mortgage insurers. Some hedging exists here, but not enough to stop the positions from bleeding in a downdraft.
6. short positions in numerousleveraged ETFs, which is sort of a hyper-long position. I refuse to cover, bring on a correction, I can take it. I've already had at least 3 20%+ draw downs and one 30% plus. So there.
7. A hotel/bar/restaurant that I am pretty sure I'm goingi to buy. Its just another, out of fricking thousands of similar cases probably, case of something bought at the top and now crippled under its debt load. It appears it can be bought for about 35% of revenue and could ultimately yield around 25-30% cash dividends on purchase price now, although operations would need to be cleaned up. However, my intention is to pay cash and then give half of it to the gentleman who will be in charge of said operations after I am repaid the purchase price + 10% interest. This is to allow me to attract a guy who in his early 30's has owned his own restaurant and sold it at a profit (75% of the revenue, interestingly, is from the food/drink operation, and the vast majority of that is liquor, which is profitable). You see, its the work that goes into a business- the human capital - thats ultimately more valuable than actual capital. So my ultimate yield willbe less than that once I recoup initial investment. This is a great idea, if it seems overly generous it is not. You see,a guy with a fantastic work ethic and proven track record of being able to run a business is an extremely valuable thing and something I want to have around.
This way I will have a partner for future ventures in the smae industry, should another cheap buying opportunity pop up, etc... Its a pretty big tie-up of resources, its certainly not liquid, but I am fairly pleased with my prospective partner and the opportunity is good.
8. other stocks. DOW, TCK, RIMM, GS, OTE, GGP, HPT (hedged but up 15-20 times my cost basis and I don't want to pay taxes so I have puts on it for now), this and that and way too many little positions in whatever, most held since 09, and most I am wanting to get rid of. many are hedged. Many are held fromearly 2009 including my only 40 bagger: GGP
9. pilot fund. a pilot fund with 2 alternate strategies I have cooked up over many, many thinking sessions starting February 2009
10. RJET. my big bomb. not my biggest position in any one stock, but the most money I put into any one stock in initial cost basis, and my 5th worst overall pick to date (behind IRE, NBG, OTE, and CEP). The overall investment thesis remains intact and plenty of smart people have shown interest in the thing, Einhorn, etc. But the market has NO love for it and it flops around like a freshly caught walleye. I am really tired of owning it at this point, but I a not selling at 6 bucks.
11. Cars. I own far too many cars, but at least the rate of return is -25% a year
12. Real estate, I own two residences outright.
13. Loans to small businesses
14. Inbred, horribly chosen investment in a real estate LLC which I will liquidate cheap next summer, regardless of the loss
15. WMD's. Have to have them ready just in case.
And thats about it. My basic plan is to keep selling stuff as it clears a year OR as the hedges on it run out and raise cash. Then add to 9. Unless the market correction is really significant in which case I will buy the ever living crap out of it adding, I guess, to 3-5.
Overall, for the year, all in all (assuming no gains in the dirt) I am up about 5.5%, almost 7% on the (free cash + capital market) stuff.