Analysts REALLY Lying on RYL
Current analyst estimates for RYL's revenues next quarter is about $558 million or down only 24.6% from last year.
With backlog down over 38% from last year and spec count down EVEN MORE....absent an extraordinary land sale(which is not factored in analyst's estimates), it would be impossible for RYL's revenues to be down less than 25%.
As a matter of fact, with the lower spec count, it is likely that RYL's revenues will be down at least 40-45% factoring the slower selling environment and lower sales prices.
What is amazing is this stuff is so simple. A HB can only generate operating revenues from backlog and specs. Specs can be converted to cash immediately and backlog converts once the house is built and delivered, subject to cancellation of course.
If RYL generates $400 million in revenues next quarter, it would be an accomplishment. But that would destroy the analysts current projections and any chance the company has for rasing cash at an inflated stock price.
No wonder the CEO just dumped another 80,000 shares a few days ago. Now that the company likely needs cash to build out backlog, expect the pumping to begin.