Analysts smoking Lennar #5
LEN end this quarter with about $1.15 Billion in backlog. Last year Q1 ending backlog was $3.45 Billion. Backlog was down a whopping 67%. Another way to look at it is this years backlog is less than 1/3 of what it was last year. ONE THIRD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Last year, LEN converted about 80% of its Q1 backlog into revenues in the second quarter. It accomplished that in a better selling environment and higher spec count(more units to liquidate).
If we simply took that same ratio and applied it to LEN's current backlog, you would think a reasonably optimistic revenue estimate for Q2 would be about $900 million. That would actually be extraordinary considering the current slower selling environment, a more realistic estimate would probably come in closer to $750 million.
But not to let us down, current consensus revenue estimate for Q2 is $1.46 Billion in revenues. Almost $300 million MORE than ending backlog or about 25% higher than TOTAL backlog and 100% higher than the current selling environment indicates.
What are the analysts smoking?????