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portefeuille (98.75)

Anchak, the early believer :)



February 08, 2014 – Comments (9)

Comment posting troubles have returned to CAPS apparently. Maybe this post will make it.

It is actually not more than a reply to comment #29 here by anchak.


Thanks! I found you mentioning your belief in my biopharma stock picking talent in one of your statistics pieces (emphasis mine) :)

Is a CAPS based Fund plausible? Attempt at Quant based strategy

January 10, 2010

Anyway , although the illiterate fool that I am , sometimes I manage to read up some things called “papers” – especially if they come from a certain , “school” in Chicago. So Joseph Piotroski wrote this paper on Value investing – which really appealed to me in concept –  so I pitched in early 2009 – all Piotroski  High Scoring picks – with a CAPS score of 3+ for Stinkyfeet. The results have been much better – although some have been negative from a CAPS perspective – you made money on all of them – some were big winners ( TCK on my own call list is one – I would have liked to pick it right at the bottom on 3/3/09 – except I had the pick from Dec 08 – so I wanted to bank accuracy!) This is however from a perspective where 80-85% of stocks have gone up since – that means on a Mean Adjusted basis – you need to have at least 92+% accuracy to be considered a Non-Random event ( err ….a small little piece of statistical jargon – somehow which found a way into my ears – called test of sample proportions. Hans ie porte beats this actually on his Biotech calls – hands down! )

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 08, 2014 at 7:58 PM, anchak (99.91) wrote:

LOL! - You have a deadly memory!!!!!

If EVER in life you need a recommendation or reference from some lowly individual - count me in.


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#2) On February 09, 2014 at 11:52 PM, portefeuille (98.75) wrote:

Thanks, will call for help when needed :)

Maybe I should give a recommendation though.

Somewhat hidden in our huge portfolio is a theme that might be worth looking at even though is has performenced very well already.

RNA Therapeutics stocks.

We made around $99k with our $TKMR position already, but I think it is not too late to start a position or to add to an existing one, especially if it goes to around $10 again (which I hope it won't do, though :)).

Other stocks from that theme are $ARWR (+$21k), $ISIS (+$9k), $SRPT (+$6k), $ALNY (+$2.5k).

The blog to follow for those stocks is this one by Dirk Haussecker.

and it's spin-off blog (on HBV, especially ARWR's drug candidate)).


Also see the pitches by zzlangerhans.


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#3) On February 09, 2014 at 11:57 PM, portefeuille (98.75) wrote:

#2 And don't tell me I should have told you earlier. I did, see comment #160 here :) and this late 2010 post on ALNY :)


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#4) On February 10, 2014 at 12:20 AM, portefeuille (98.75) wrote:

Dirk Haussecker is not exactly a neutral / outside observer as he is by now a major holder of $MRNA, has positions in a few other RNA Therapeutics stocks and is very involved in all things RNAi, but then who are the neutral observers and should you really prefer their advice? :)

His blog (the main one in particular) is really good and might also be a good test to see whether you should invest in individual biopharma stocks. If you don't understand everything written there and in the papers, press releases, etc. he links to then that is perfectly alright, but if you understand not one bit then you might want to start reading a little first before you invest. Also take into consideration the meta-rule for investing in small cap biotech formulated by zzlangerhans :)

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#5) On February 10, 2014 at 12:41 AM, portefeuille (98.75) wrote:

#2 it's -> its.

sorry, early morning over here. 

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#6) On February 11, 2014 at 1:33 PM, portefeuille (98.75) wrote:

The zzporte portfolio.


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#7) On February 14, 2014 at 9:47 AM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

A sad reminder of how I was "in" on ALNY at 10.19 and out long before 80...essentially missing all of a super sweet move. 

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#8) On February 14, 2014 at 11:03 AM, portefeuille (98.75) wrote:

At least you kept most of your TKMR shares, I assume. Now that DH gave it a $100 price target it might become the first #zzporte million dollar position :)

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#9) On February 14, 2014 at 4:41 PM, Momentum21 (98.13) wrote:

Yes, now at 800 shares of TKMR, from 5 bucks or so...I had sold my initial position for a small gain and then got back in higher out of fear of loss. : )

BTW - I just sent someone your "learning from mistakes" rant. that could very well be your most insightful post anywhere. thank you.

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