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TheDumbMoney (38.50)

And..., Here We Are at Silver $22

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32

April 15, 2013 – Comments (94) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD , SLV , PM

Two or three years ago, when this site was becoming a festival of hyper-confident, hyper-certain gold bugs, I made a few bets with them.  I bet Christopher Barker that PM stock would outperform gold.  And I bet frankydon'tfailme in 2011 that Silver would see $22 before it ever saw $40 again (if it ever did).

I have already reported on the scorching outperformance of PM vs. Gold (which just got more extreme in the last two days).   (Now you should know I actually think PM is probably a fair bit overvalued as of this writing, but we're just talking about share prices and dividends.)  It is with a bit of sadness (given franky's CAPS score, which hopefully does not reflect a lot of real money investments/trades), that I now report SLV has hit the $22 handle.

Fundamentally, the thesis behind these long trades was that uncontrollable hyperinflation was going to be the result of Fed's actions/US debt.  Added to this was a common stream of thought, that we would eventually go back on some sort of gold standard (thus implying some optionality of even greater gains).  At the risk of hubris, I have to admit the jury is not out on that.  But mainstream economic theory has never supported it, the Fed's PREcedented actions (see the 1945-1952 era) have never supported it, and sometimes the experts and the mainstream are considered to be such for a very good reason.  I have blogged about that stuff ad nauseum, mostly in 2010, back when respected organizations like Washington Post and LATimes were blaring loud and wrong headlines about the "unprecedented" nature of the Fed's actions, have apparently never bothered to actually check the precedents....

I am not a genius.  I just made the considered decision that if Warren Buffett was saying one thing, and a bunch of strangers on fool.com were saying one thing, the odds were quite strongly in favor of Buffett being right.  And I boned up on monetary policy to confirm my instincts.

Another way I anticipated this is that gold and silver minors always outperformed the metals themselves.  As I blogged about, including at Kid Dynamite's independent blog:   these companies are still companies, their value may thus only include the discounted value of all of their future cash flows, forever.  The fact that the market was never willing to assign them much higher multiples was, in my view anyway, always a signal that the market did not expect the prices of these metals to remain so high forever -- their cash flows would not always be so high, let alone higher.

Now of course I've posted these two posts, and if SLV and GLD suddenly shoot to the moon, I'm going to get reamed!  But who cares?  That's what the market is about.  That's what calls are about.  That's what laying it on the line with money (I own PM, no gold) is about, and accountability.  Much as many things about Mr. Barker have annoyed me, one thing I continue to respect him for was/is his willingness: a) to put his own money on the line, and b)  his willingness to publicly state a position.   I try to be the same.  May the best man win.  Right now, I am, so some (hopefully not temporary) gloating is in order.

94 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 15, 2013 at 3:57 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Important typo.   Meant to write, "...that gold and silver minors always UNDERperformed the metals themselves...."

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#2) On April 15, 2013 at 4:18 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

You know I have a ton of issues with Chris, and i find his career exit highly suspicious. I was agreeing with you the whole time 

 

however, I would take what Buffett says nowadays with a grain of salt...IMO, his statements are way more politically charged than they used to be, I don't trust what he says too much anymore (still respect the hell out of him). Also completely disagree with your gold going against economic theory thing. I've read plenty of history of economics and banking over thousands of years. Paper money always winds up reverting to gold standard. And the gold standard we had early on we saw best growth ever seen ever. It was the gold EXCHANGE that didnt work...two very different things that Keynesians love to confuse. Read money, bank credit, and economic cycles or currency wars, etc. I'm not a conspiracy theorist who thinks JPM is insolvent due to a massive silver short. But history is full of gold standards that turn to paper that gets out of control that goes back to gold. Idk why this time would be different 

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#3) On April 15, 2013 at 5:02 PM, outoffocus (22.81) wrote:

however, I would take what Buffett says nowadays with a grain of salt...IMO, his statements are way more politically charged than they used to be, I don't trust what he says too much anymore (still respect the hell out of him)

I have to wholeheartedly agree with that one.  Also I believe Warren Buffett is at a different stage in his investing style than he used to be.  He's gone from "wealth accumulation" to "wealth preservation". So unless you are in the same stage as he is, you would be a fool to follow his investment advice blindly. 

You know I have a ton of issues with Chris, and i find his career exit highly suspicious.

Say what you want to say about Chris. I can honestly I actually made money from his research. I think his sudden exit was probably more profit related than anything.  The buzz around commodities has died down so his articles were probably not getting as many views as they used to. Hence less ad revenue.  But like precious metal investing in this environment, I'm just speculating.  

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#4) On April 15, 2013 at 5:12 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

I had no idea Chris had had a "career exit."  What happened to him?  I assumed he was still here floating around somewhere.  Maybe they fired him.  Back in 2010 I used to say I felt his posts skirted close enough to the line of certainty/guarantees that fool.com was inviting lawsuits by using him.

Buffett's only political stuff relates to taxes.  He's a moderate Democrat (like me, incidentally.)  His opinion on gold as expressed I think in his 2011 shareholder letter, is completely apolitical. 

As to economic/monetary theory, I am not referring to what you think I'm referring to, and so I apologize for any ambiguity on my part.  I am saying that there was never a good economic/monetary case that the Fed's actions would lead to hyperinflation, given context and circumstances.

As to the reintroduction of a gold standard, I'm aware of the history.  Be aware of two things: First, until 1919 (when it happened in the US) there had never to my knowledge been a politically independent organization responsible for issuance of paper money and maintenance of the money supply, so prior comaprisons are imperfect.  And second, when talking about growth, be aware of the trap of confusing correlation with causation.  That said, your point is encompassed anyway in my point about hubris requiring that I acknowledge the jury is still out. 

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#5) On April 15, 2013 at 5:30 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Also, the claim that under the classical gold standard in the U.S. (1870-1913) we had our best growth is factually wrong in two respects:

1) first, even on a nominal basis, it is exceeded by the US's growth for the broader 1790-1913 period; and

2) the nominal figure is misleading and wrong because it does not account for population growth.  Annualized real GDP per capita growh -- the number that matters, for the 1870-1913 period is almost 1% less than for the 1919-present period.  I'm not saying that's because the present system is so much better.  But there is a lot of complexity here and a lot of other factors at work besides just what monetary regime we are on.

Cheers,

TDUM 

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#6) On April 15, 2013 at 6:39 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

I take all major corrections as an opportunity to buy.  I sold out my gold stock (even Sandstorm) awhile ago except ALDXF (which I view as a 5-10year play and keep adding to it monthly).  I have been buying morgan silver dollars as an alternative since I like the numismatic value.

I will make a prediction here, contrary to Alex's prediction, I submit we will see gold at $2,000 within the end of the decade and will see $50 silver. Uncle Ben has several more years of QE to do contrary to what the pundits are arguing.

NEM really is looking enticing more now as a dividend play.  I will start to buy that under $30.

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#7) On April 15, 2013 at 6:40 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Correction:  ALXDF.

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#8) On April 15, 2013 at 7:18 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

Yes the hyperinflationists don't understand that the monetary base is only 20% of money supply. You're wrong about the non central paper issuers though. There were plenty of them. But I mostly agree with you other than that 

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#9) On April 15, 2013 at 7:36 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

Important typo. Meant to write, "...that gold and silver minors always UNDERperformed the metals themselves...."  

TheDumbMoney , You might be correct about gold and silver minors, but I'm pretty sure you are wrong about gold and silver majors.

Secondly, proclaiming at this point that you were right and Chris was wrong has no merit whatsoever. Chris had clearly stated just before he left that gold (thus silver too) is being manipulated. Chris can take no responsibilities for any bad calls he made prior to finding out this manipulation was taking place (Didn't you notice all of his good calls were made prior to the start of gold manipulation?).

And thirdly, Silver is currently closer to $23 than your $22 prediction. This is just showing how desperate you are... 

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#10) On April 15, 2013 at 7:43 PM, fewl10 (< 20) wrote:

Hey... glad to hear your profiting on a company that ruins people's lives.  It's a shame that PM isn't keeping all the stupidv people out of the gene pool and from reproducing, as the obvious direction of this nation is showing.  

 

 

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#11) On April 15, 2013 at 7:51 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Hi Dragon.  

1) the bet was that it would hit the $22 handle, which it did today;

2) If you honestly think the gold/silver market is being manipulated by the government in some massive conspiratorial way (such that without that manipulation, gold would trade at like $3000 or something, I don't really know what to say.  Respectfully, I just have no respect for that, just as I have no respect for Mr. Barker for writing it.  It's a sad excuse.  I loathe conspiracy theories; not one in a hundred is actually correct.  Bad odds.

3) Sorry, I meant to write "miners," not "minors".  The period of underperformance I'm speaking about in particular is the period in 2011 when everybody was shocked that miners (in general, with some group and specific exceptions) had underperformed the metals themselves.

Desperately yours,

TDUM 

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#12) On April 15, 2013 at 8:00 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

fewl10, honestly I can't think of a single company that isn't ruining people's lives in some way.  PM sells a legal product whose dangers are well-known, and it users benefit from a nice buzz, and often greater socialization.  Also, a lifetime of (overconsumption of, as opposed to occasional) cigarettes statistically reduces your lifespan by about 12 years, not enough to prevent reproduction.  As to stupidity, I am a little more empathetic towards those who suffer addiction, which I view as mostly being about the chemical proclivities in a person's brain, not about the product, and not about their intelligence.

Regards,

TDUM 

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#13) On April 15, 2013 at 8:01 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

Thedumbnoney,

 

man have you not realized by now dragon is a jokester? Me and him have a running joke about Chris projections.

 

All I wanna know is....how will I know if I should buy more exk?!?!?!

 

also te people that say PM is ruining lives...BS. commodity companies pollute. KO and mCD fatten. Technology companies help hackers facilitate. Grow a pair  

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#14) On April 15, 2013 at 8:06 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

Dragon,

 

I was looking at bullion dealers today...they all seem to be selling the bullion for more than the spot price. This is blatantly  obvious that the futures are being manipulated. The premium over spot from the dealers is surely a sign that the actual metal is in high demand 

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#15) On April 15, 2013 at 8:24 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

My bad, it has been awhile and I missed the joke completely apparently.  Boo me.  In my defense I only got three hours of sleep last night due to baby issues.

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#16) On April 15, 2013 at 8:29 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

I didn't sleep at all last night.  But I dont have a baby =P

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#17) On April 15, 2013 at 8:43 PM, L0RDZ (83.74) wrote:

I'd  like  to know  if  ??

Blue Horse Shoe Loves Anacot Steel  ???

still ???

 

lol

 

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#18) On April 15, 2013 at 8:57 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

Valyooo, I was being serious.

If you guys think this whole thing with the gold manipulation is not real, how do you then explain that TMFSinch disappeared right after he revealed the gold manipulation conspiracy? Coincidence? I don't think so.

p.s.

I'm not going to be commenting on this post any more due to a concern for my own safety. After all, two of you are just building a straw man...

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#19) On April 15, 2013 at 8:59 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

Silver at $22 puts me in the buying mood. Unfortunately E-bay still has the Eagles at $32-$35. Might have to wait a few days to get them cheaper.

As far as the junior miners go, I wouldn't be a buyer  just because I owned them before and made quite a bit of profit, but even though I had a couple of two-baggers their still seemed to be a disconnect between share price and Silver price.

Also like the JFK fifty cent pieces (so      awallejr don't worry I won't be bidding against your Morgans.

My user name has a Chicago sports team in it, just in case were bidding on the same item.

Cheers

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#20) On April 15, 2013 at 9:03 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

DTAF, Even though I don't think you and I are going to agree on the subject of gold manipulation, I wanted to tell you this: Congratulations and all the the best!

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#21) On April 15, 2013 at 9:19 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

I meant congratulations on the baby, not your call...

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#22) On April 15, 2013 at 9:30 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

silver at $22? buy, buy buy

 

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#23) On April 15, 2013 at 9:47 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

^ doing my shopping here-

http://www.apmex.com/Category/1659/2013_Certified_Silver_American_Eagles.aspx

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#24) On April 15, 2013 at 9:47 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

^ doing my shopping here-

http://www.apmex.com/Category/1659/2013_Certified_Silver_American_Eagles.aspx

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#25) On April 15, 2013 at 11:22 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

HCG,

 

I find jmbullion.com has best prices, but I dont know how the service is.  I stick with just buying SLV, or silver futures...I really want the bullion, but I dont like paying a 7% premium to buy and then losing a few % on the wya out 

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#26) On April 15, 2013 at 11:22 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

HCG,

 

I find jmbullion.com has best prices, but I dont know how the service is.  I stick with just buying SLV, or silver futures...I really want the bullion, but I dont like paying a 7% premium to buy and then losing a few % on the wya out 

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#27) On April 15, 2013 at 11:26 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

HCG,

 

I find jmbullion.com has best prices, but I dont know how the service is.  I stick with just buying SLV, or silver futures...I really want the bullion, but I dont like paying a 7% premium to buy and then losing a few % on the wya out 

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#28) On April 15, 2013 at 11:46 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

Sorry, didnt realize that posted 3 times, I swear it wasn't spam.

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#29) On April 16, 2013 at 12:29 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

how do you then explain that TMFSinch disappeared right after he revealed the gold manipulation conspiracy? Coincidence? I don't think so.

I think this is a tad "tinfoilish."  I doubt someone kidnapped Chris. And LOL Harry I sure hope you aren't sniping my bids ;p  You might want to look at the Eisenhowers (The S ones).  

What you see as "spot price" and what you actually pay are really two different things.  Stick with the morgans (peace dollars too) and ALXDF. Stop thinking tomorrow, think 5-10 years.  And if NEM does go below 30 (and I doubt it will), buy that sucker.

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#30) On April 16, 2013 at 8:18 AM, fewl10 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks.  I'm glad you feel some empathy.  Thanks for supporting cigarette companies by buying their stock.  A part of me will feel your empathy while the guy who lives above us continues to smoke, it continues to LEAK into the condo that we OWN, and my daughters ages 4 and 2 continue to cough on the poison leaking into their room at night, as it has for my entire married life of 7 years.  You know, words can't describe how I feel about people like you.  

 

 

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#31) On April 16, 2013 at 8:19 AM, fewl10 (< 20) wrote:

Thanks.  I'm glad you feel some empathy.  Thanks for supporting cigarette companies by buying their stock.  A part of me will feel your empathy while the guy who lives above us continues to smoke, it continues to LEAK into the condo that we OWN, and my daughters ages 4 and 2 continue to cough on the poison leaking into their room at night, as it has for my entire married life of 7 years.  You know, words can't describe how I feel about people like you.  

 

 

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#32) On April 16, 2013 at 9:34 AM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

TDM - Great Call, you got me this time.

 

 P.S I haven't owned any miners since 2011. Own some coins, but I'll live. Overall my losses are shallow, thanks to technical anaylsis.

Also, I will be looking to get back into gold and silver when the dust clears, assuming the evidence doesn't point to a further decline.

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#33) On April 16, 2013 at 11:24 AM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

awallerjr,

Keep up, I already explained that dragon is joking haha.  We all know Chris left because he's been wrong for too long.

 

Fewl,

Let me go through your caps picks

ACI- coal is the dirtiest source of fuel, polluting your little girls lungs worse than PM

Lorillard- a cigarette company! but you did say you wouldnt buy in real life

CPE- Hmm, I wonder if drilling has any external dirty impacts...

 

If you have a problem with your neighbor, complain to your landlord or move to a smoke-free apartment.

 

I will never understand why its ok for people to eat junk food and if they get fat from it "its ok youre still beautiful", but if you smoke you are a bad person 

 

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#34) On April 16, 2013 at 11:56 AM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

Funny that somebody just showed me this article

 

http://www.mainstreet.com/slideshow/smart-spending/are-your-household-products-fueling-wars

 

seema mch worse than somebody deciding to smoke...but I bet your family uses cell phones right? Or is it different because Africa doesn't matter? 

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#35) On April 16, 2013 at 12:44 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Valyooo, shhh!!, you may confuse fewl into doubting his awesomeness, purity, and my perfidy in owning stock in a tobacco company and therefore being solely responsible for all of the problems in his life.

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#36) On April 16, 2013 at 1:31 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

I used to smoke 2 packs a day for about 30 years.  Then one day I suffered a brain hemorrhage.  They took me to a local hospital to do a CAT scan and then rushed me to Cornell-Weill Hosptial (as an aside they really do have the market on pretty nurses there). 

The first thing the doctor said to me when he saw me was "quit smoking."  Well being on morphine for 8 days did help me finally quit.   Glad I did because at today's prices in NYC I would be spending over $5,000 a year on the habit.

As long as the product is legal I fault no one in owning the company, because as others said what about fast food joints, pastry shops, 32 ounce drinks all helping to make us obese.

Ever drive behind a City bus?  Or live under a High Tension power wire?  The list can go on and on.

When PM split into MO and PM there was a debate here as to which to pick.  I advised PM mainly because there are less regulations overseas whereas MO will only face greater and greater roadblocks in the US.

My personal advice, don't smoke.  You smell, you are wasting money, and you are doing bad things inside your body.  But that is your choice.

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#37) On April 16, 2013 at 4:30 PM, Valyooo (99.37) wrote:

Yes, I agree, don't smoke.  I have smoked on and off for the last 5 years, but as of right now have not smoked in 2 months...$12 a pack here in NYC, makes you smell awful, kills endurance, and I dont even like it that much.

 

But I DO like PM stock.  My favorite stock actually 

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#38) On April 16, 2013 at 4:44 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

Chris figured it out. If gold goes up, claim credit for being right. If gold goes down, shirk all responsibility and instead blame some nameless cabal of evil manipulators. Heads I win, tails oh look, SQUIRREL! 

 

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#39) On April 16, 2013 at 5:16 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

Sad that people find their joy in insulting someone's character that's no longer present to defend.

 (To be clear TDM was NOT practicing such) 

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#40) On April 16, 2013 at 5:30 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

Karma's a you know what. If Sinchy and the other mouthbreathers that slandered my name regarding Silvercorp and resulted in me receiving a death threat lose a lot of money owning garbage stocks, I will find joy in that, thank you very much.

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#41) On April 16, 2013 at 5:41 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

As a side note I bought some silver bars and a few 1915 20 franc Austrian Corona's.

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#42) On April 16, 2013 at 6:46 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Ooh, this got fun. 

Here are some interesting links:

Ritholtz' hilarious post on the 12 Rules of Goldbuggery: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-10-rules-of-goldbuggery/

 

And on the other side of the ledger, the best "pro-gold" explanation of what has been going on that I have seen: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2013/04/15/we-have-seen-gold-prices-act-like-this-before/ 

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#43) On April 16, 2013 at 8:00 PM, ChrisGraley (29.67) wrote:

Wow! All are of you guys so afraid of Sinch that you have to wait till he leaves to start the troll fest?

 

He was one of my favorite TMF posters and was right a hell of a lot more than he was wrong. 

I'm not sure what the suspiciousness of his exit is since he one of the last to jump off a sinking ship, but everyone have fun in your troll fest. 

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#44) On April 16, 2013 at 8:02 PM, ChrisGraley (29.67) wrote:

Oh, note to the trolls, I bought most of my silver between $7 and $17 tell me what my tragedy is again please.

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#45) On April 16, 2013 at 10:38 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

Wow! All are of you guys so afraid of Sinch that you have to wait till he leaves to start the troll fest?

Chris, When I posted this or this, Sinch was still here.

He was one of my favorite TMF posters and was right a hell of a lot more than he was wrong.

There is nothing wrong with the fact that he was one of your favorite posters, but that doesn't make him more right than wrong. Could you please show us some proof (facts please, no opinions) of that claim.

I'm pretty sure that if we would take a look at all of his picks / calls from 2008 to today, at best 30% of his calls/picks would be in the green (not green like in outperforming S&P500, but like in not being lower than when he made a call/pick). And all of this during one of the best times in history to be in in gold and silver. Also from an analyst - somebody who's paid to do analysis (some would say 'an expert in the field').

Or what's his record since 2011? I'd say at best 10% of his picks are in the green.

And what about all of his posts since 2011 saying things like "get in now" or "back up the track on these incredible values" (not his exact words), as all of those incredible values were turning in exceptionally incredible values (pretty much all, except PPP, 60%+ lower than in 2011).

You, for example, were very smart when you said that you are staying away from the PM-miners back in 2011 - I remember that. But the other Chris, he's a different story.

He kept arguing with people who were suggesting that the incredible bull run in PM mining styocks might be cooling off, saying they don't know anything about PM's and that he will "laugh his way to the bank" when his secret targets for gold and silver materialize.

And just so you know, I don't think that any of us trolls have a problem with his bad calls - we all make them.

I think we only have a problem with him never saying 'Ooops, I think I was early/late, made a mistake in my calculations... or anything like that. He never, never admitted he made any bad calls. However, he never had an issue proclaiming his greatness while he was right. That's the problem we have a problem with.

The best he came up with is "gold is manipulated"...  

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#46) On April 16, 2013 at 10:42 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

#10) On April 04, 2012 at 10:27 AM, XMFSinchiruna (28.82) wrote:

DragonLZ, There will most certainly be a next leg up.

And SN is 100% correct, junior gold and silver miners are poised to perform exceptionally well into that next up-leg.

Ironically, only the strongest retail-investment hands in the sector will be along for the surge, the remainder having been washed out by the most severe mood of exasperation and fatigue that I've witnessed during this bull market cycle (or at least since the 2008 correction). The primary profiteers, of course, will be the very same bullion banks that have played a key role in the pullback in the first place.

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#47) On April 16, 2013 at 11:51 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

#22) On February 28, 2011 at 12:44 PM, dragonLZ (99.21) wrote:

TMFSinchiruna,

I guess you are forgetting how everything started.

I said you made the best call ever on PM's, and I also said you were wrong on equities (equities as in S&P500, not a correct term, as I didn't sepcify non-PM-related equiities, but I'm sure you knew what I meant).

You said that you are not happy with my statement and requested some supporting evidence. You also said that "aside from one moment in mid-2009" you weren't wrong on equities. (In case you were wrong at some other point in time, why would you say "aside from one moment in mid-2009"? I guess that's somehow my fault now).

Then I found some supporting evidenvce from 2010, but you say that doesn't count either.

"That comments you cite above are from November and December 2010, so it is not logical to use those as an example of me being "wrong on equities", as insufficient time has elapsed to render such a judgement."

Well, you are most likely right on this one. I just wonder how "insufficient time" rule doesn't work when you are right on your call - see Copper Fox in your Whoops post, but it doesn't when you are wrong. I guess, again somehow my fault.

OK, so what happened with your comment from May of 2010? Insufficient time or again "unfair statement after twisted interpretation"? You failed to address that comment.

All in all, why did you ask for supporting evidence if you don't allow it to be used in court?

It's clear you won't be ever wrong about equities (other than a brief moment in mid-2009), and there is nothing that will change that. Your words from the past don't count. I'm sure 99% of all the Fools have the same opinion of your point of view on equities (risky/double dip very likely/look for protection in PM's), but somehow I'm the one trying to do something that has nothing to do with reality.

Good for you.

This reminds me of your call on steel industry.

When I called you out with facts (30-50% gain in stell stocks' prices), you said you don't care about increases in their stock prices - that doesn't prove anything.

Well, I just wonder then how come you show how right your calls were by using the same measure (see your Whoop post again - such and such stock up so and so much since I recommended it).

I know, I know, it's me again. I need to learn how the rules work, I guess...

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#48) On April 16, 2013 at 11:54 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

#25) On February 28, 2011 at 2:31 PM, XMFSinchiruna (28.82) wrote:

dragonLZ

You showed nothing except ridiculous illogic and childish tactics, both here and in several previous encounters.

I wish no further communication with you. Please respect that. I will be responsible for accurately portraying my own comprehesive record in due time, and in the meantime your unwelcome attempts to reduce my nuanced perspectives into such simplistic black-and-white terms is unacceptable in a forum of intelligent adults.

I would have been more than happy to debate the finer points of these issues had you exhibited an intellectual curiosity for seeking an accurate portrayal of my record, but that was not forthcoming, neither here nor in our previous encounters.

Now kindly go away!

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#49) On April 17, 2013 at 12:33 AM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

"You showed nothing except ridiculous illogic and childish tactics, both here and in several previous encounters."

 

Hey look, maybe he is here to defend himself. 

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#50) On April 17, 2013 at 12:33 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

but that doesn't make him more right than wrong. Could you please show us some proof (facts please, no opinions) of that claim.

Well I bought many a stock on his suggestion and sold  for a profit.  I have always said I am not a gold bug but holding some gold is a good hedge. He did more solid DD on companies than anyone on this site.  Right now gold is crashing.  I view it as a buying opportunity just as I viewed buying stocks in April 2009 as one.

Go read my macro predictions since then.  Few people have beaten my predictions.  And I am predicting now that while Gold/Silver might decline some more it WILL see higher prices down the road.  Paper versus PM?  No contest in the end.

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#51) On April 17, 2013 at 10:41 AM, outoffocus (22.81) wrote:

Wow...50 comments? I didnt realize the "I told you so" crowd was so large on CAPS. lol 

Carry on. =) 

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#52) On April 17, 2013 at 12:37 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

outoffocus, Even though I find you comment funny and very smart, I'm surprised that you are not here to give credit to the people who "told you so".

Back in 2010, you were very concerned that people who were calling the double dip / another crash wouldn't be properly recognized.

#8) On June 07, 2010 at 9:58 AM, outoffocus (24.98) wrote:

More importantly, if we do experience a crash, will the people who CORRECTLY called it be properly recognized? I could name about 10 people both TMF writers and well respected CAPS members who have been warning of a double dip since last year.

 

p.s.

Even though TMFSinch was one of those people calling the double dip, I'm guessing that none of his "supporters" will ever say that he was wrong. The guy just can't be wrong, no matter what he said. But how can he, when it's so clear that the market is being manipulated...?

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#53) On April 17, 2013 at 1:04 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

Well I bought many a stock on his suggestion and sold for a profit. I have always said I am not a gold bug but holding some gold is a good hedge. He did more solid DD on companies than anyone on this site. Right now gold is crashing. I view it as a buying opportunity just as I viewed buying stocks in April 2009 as one.

awallejr, how's this showing that TMFSinch was more right than wrong? You made money, great, but show me where TMFSinch told you to sell. Almost every time someone said they sold out of their position, he would "advise" them to go back into it.

He did a lot of "advising" back in 2011 (saying this is just a temporary correction and people should load up on gold and silver miners), and most of his favorite miners are 50-60-70% lower today than they were in 2011.

Please give me 5 specific stocks you made money on based on TMFSinch's recommendations, and I guarantee I will show you his recommendations to go back into them when they were higher than today for at least 3 of them.

p.s.

Both you and Chris Graley are getting confused about what we are talking about here. Nobody ever said TMFSinch never made good calls. We also never said people who bought silver and gold when it was cheap were stupid. We are just saying that TMFSinch was wrong a lot since 2011. He might be right again later this year or in 2014, but that doesn't makes him right in 2012. What's so hard to understand about this?

You and Chris sound to me like someone arguing that Michael Jordan was still the best basketball player in the world when he was playing for the Wizards (coming out of retirement) just because he was the best when he played for Bulls.

Facts (numbers) are facts.

I, myself, have said many times that I have never seen anyone on CAPS be so right like TMFSinch was right on the PM miners in 2009 and 2010. That's a fact. I can't change that now just because his record since 2011 stinks.

Btw., Chris G. at least said "he was right more than he was wrong" "admitting" that TMFSinch was at least occasionaly wrong.

You, and some other guys, on the other hand, are still arguing that he never made a bad call...

p.p.s.

Go read my macro predictions since then. Few people have beaten my predictions. And I am predicting now that while Gold/Silver might decline some more it WILL see higher prices down the road. Paper versus PM? No contest in the end.

How's this showing TMFSinch was more right than wrong?

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#54) On April 17, 2013 at 1:09 PM, outoffocus (22.81) wrote:

Um... clap clap?

Also I guess you didn't see my comment earlier.  

"Say what you want to say about Chris. I can honestly I actually made money from his research." 

My comment isn't about double dips or anything else.  Its more of a concern that people are having a slamfest against a guy who is not even here to defend his position. 

Having said that, I'm not completely sold on us being back in a full on bull market.  I'm not a bear, just treading cautiously.  As far as precious metals are concerned, I managed to get out of my positions with some nice gains so I'm not complaining. 

If you are making money. Great. You always seems to make money in these markets.  But that because you are more of a trader and I've been saying for the past 4 years that this is a trader's market.   

 

I was just saying that considering that CAPS has been pretty dead for the past year.  Now all of a sudden we have blogs with 50+ comments.  Maybe that crisis I was talking about has finally happened...just in commodities.... 

 

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#55) On April 17, 2013 at 1:26 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

I don't mean to call anybody out in particular, and maybe you're all telling the truth.  But one thing I find notable is that notwithstanding that precious metals and miner stocks have tanked so notably since 2011, everyone claims they sold at the right time and made money.  Yet, nobody seems to have posted any actual trading information in real time.  I'm just noting it.

As I have stated many times, all of my CAPS picks are real money picks.  I note every trade in my comments when I add to a position.  When I sell out a position I remove it from CAPS.  So I'm living in a world of pretty full accountability.  Are you?  Are your gains as great as you think they are?  Was Mr. Barker as helpful to all of you as you say in an ex post fashion that he was?  Does anybody have an actual P&L spreadsheet they would care to post?

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#56) On April 17, 2013 at 2:05 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

#52,#53 etc

I am a follower of TMFSinchurina and believe that he was wrong about miners from 2011-present, happy? 

Much more importantly, why do you care?  You present intelligent and often accurate market analysis, yet few care. Know why? Because you comport yourself like a child. Who cares what someone said or didn't say, focus on ideas not people and you may earn respect.  (I apologize if you are indeed child).

#55, if you really care and provide an email I will provide you with my tax returns (I'm not posting anything publicly). I clearly stated that I lost money on miners, but the losses were shallow. I know this because I pay taxes and have to record my net gains and losses.  

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#57) On April 17, 2013 at 2:05 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

outoffocus, I'm sorry if my comment was too harsh.

Also, nowhere in the comments to this post did I say anything about me being right or making money in this market. If I did, please bring it to my attention. That wasn't the point I was trying to make. I said we all make bad calls, my only problem is why people can't realize hris Baker made some bad calls too.

I have no idea why you said "I'm making money in thsi market". I have never claimed so in any of my recent posts or comments. I actually reported in 2011 that I was getting killed. 

I think I was also very careful not to say anything like 'I was right about this market and Chris Baker was not'. 

Not sure why you misundertood my comments like that.

Possibly because you remember my "look at me" posts back in 2009 and 2010...

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#58) On April 17, 2013 at 2:17 PM, goldminingXpert (29.40) wrote:

The problem isn't that his picks were wildly wrong. We all screw up. I was the worst investor I know in 2009 in terms of returns. 

The problem is that he could never admit he was wrong, and when challenged, he ridiculed others, and when that failed, he slandered them. It's one thing to be wrong, it's another to character assassinate everybody else if you can't win an argument logically.

The gang banging take down he and his crew tried against me with SVM is one example -- similarly, his efforts to shut me up on GPL when I called it a pump and dump -- and yes it's down 70% since then thank you very much. 

Consider this article where he "set the record straight" by straight taking a dump all over my personage. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/09/07/setting-the-record-straight-on-silvercorp-metals.aspx  

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#59) On April 17, 2013 at 2:21 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

Who cares what someone said or didn't say, focus on ideas not people and you may earn respect. (I apologize if you are indeed child).

Apology accepted.

p.s.

See how you can write a comment that actualy make sense.

You also made me be ashamed of myself a little bit.

Even though a child (mentally), I can take crticism well (as an adult).

I think you are very right about my "CAPS behavior". I was thinking about it lately myself. As a result, I won't be writing any more posts or comments addressing anyone but myself or the market (not even TMFSinch).

Thank you. 

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#60) On April 17, 2013 at 5:32 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

awallejr, how's this showing that TMFSinch was more right than wrong? You made money, great, but show me where TMFSinch told you to sell. Almost every time someone said they sold out of their position, he would "advise" them to go back into it.

No one put a gun to my head.  I take full responsibility for how I invest and in what I invest and at what time I invest.  I don't need Sinch to tell me when to sell.  I come here looking for ideas.  Once found and acted upon it is purely up to me how to follow through.

I've made some bad calls here, and sorry if people got hurt.  But I made a ton of good calls too, and hope people profited. But in the end only you are responsible for any outcome since we are all basically anonymous to each other.

We are just saying that TMFSinch was wrong a lot since 2011. He might be right again later this year or in 2014, but that doesn't makes him right in 2012. What's so hard to understand about this?

That isn't what you are doing.  You are crucifying a guy out of personal animosity over old fights.  Sheesh I have had a ton of fights with Alstry, David, yes you GoldmingXpert, and even TMFAdelph.  

Outoffocus is right, this is becoming nothing but an "I told you so" fest aimed at a guy who had a strong interest in a particular sector.

TDM the only Sinch pick I can prove here having made money on is Sandstorm:  here's when I advised it

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/my-3-picks-for-2012/685284

Here is when I mentioned I sold it (comment 3):

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/how-much-did-setting-the/802520

I did make money on EXK, AUY, lost on CDY and time will tell on ALXDF.

I am keeping an eye on SLW and NEM now, companies I never heard of until reading Sinch blogs. I am a buyer under 20 on SLW and under 30 on NEM.

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#61) On April 17, 2013 at 10:35 PM, outoffocus (22.81) wrote:

I made money on SLW, CEF, CDE (got lucky, sold right before it tanked), and AUY. I broke even on EXK. How do I know? Because I was reporting all gains on my Schedule D this year.  Did I say Chris was always right? No.  I said I benefited from his research. If you look as my CAPS portfolio (even though I stopped playing CAPS like over 2 years ago, pretty much when TMF stopped keeping up with it), my SLW pick is STILL positive. So my comment still stands.  Say what you want about the man. I personally benefitted from his research and I'm sure I'm not the only one.  I don't there is one person on this site that followed ANYONE blindly without doing their due diligence, especially not Chris.  And after EVERY blog and article he ALWAYS encouraged people to do their own due diligence. Which I did.  So for all these people to come down on him like this AFTER HE IS GONE is unfair.  

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#62) On April 17, 2013 at 11:47 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

Sheesh-

Wen't to the doctor today, and he asked for a blood, stool and urine sample.

So I handed him my underwear.

Needed to check out my RL account today, history puts-

100 shrs of EXK @ $4.18

Sold 50 @ $9.53

Sold 25 @ $10.47

(big spender I know)

The point is my investments are always made on my own. Caps is for sharing ideas and having some fun.

Cheers.

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#63) On April 18, 2013 at 2:15 AM, CCharing (88.94) wrote:

I like that dragon points out people's shortcomings - it keeps them accountable.  He's never said "Oh this person is full of Sh1t don't listen."  He just posts previous assertions that when reviewed with the passing of time have proven less than prescient..

I think it's great, no?  I bet it helps people (certainly none of the luminaries who replied in this thread, but new members) from trusting too blindly... savvy?

 

 

 

 

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#64) On April 18, 2013 at 2:24 AM, CCharing (88.94) wrote:

I mean if no one is going to be accountable for their predictions after the fact (and get a little playful ribbing when one is wrong on a grand scale) then we should all just stick to shorting inverse levered etfs.  Why even bother with sharing ones conviction?  

We could just hedge all our crystal gazing and make ambigious prognostications or link articles supporting both sides without overtly stating a position at all (looking at you TMF) so we can always come back and say: "I told you so."

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#65) On April 18, 2013 at 2:27 AM, CCharing (88.94) wrote:

Also this is probably the most commented/passionate outpour in recent memory..

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#66) On April 18, 2013 at 11:42 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I have not contributed much to any "precious metals" discussions other than comments like "stupid shiny metal".

I may have suggested biopharma as an alternative ... :)



enlarge

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#67) On April 18, 2013 at 11:45 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#66 still not too late to consider said alternative.

for inspiration see

http://twitter.com/zzlangerhans

http://twitter.com/portefeuillefun

:)

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#68) On April 18, 2013 at 11:52 AM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

gold & silver are stupid investments

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#69) On April 18, 2013 at 6:28 PM, ChrisGraley (29.67) wrote:

TDM if you are still here don't stop posting. I just wanted to point out that you were doing a lot of chest pounding and the guy was,t here to counter. Timing is everything and I think you alluded to that already. You are right and he was right if that makes you feel better. The timing thing for you would have worked out better if he was here to defend himself. 

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#70) On April 18, 2013 at 6:33 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Actually he is around.  He just made a post as XMF having changed the TMF.  But I just think this thread and another one by Dragon got out of hand.  Hey when I predicted Alstry's score would turn negative by a certain date,  I certainly pointed it out to him when it did.  Nothing wrong with bragging, but I didn't crucify him and he was a good enough sport to respond.

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#71) On April 19, 2013 at 12:15 PM, ElCid16 (95.69) wrote:

I'm not sure what the suspiciousness of his exit is since he one of the last to jump off a sinking ship

A sinking ship?  Is this an admission from chisgraley that the bull market for gold and silver is officially over?

Conviction buyers are giving up.  Maybe it's time to jump on board... 

 

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#72) On April 19, 2013 at 1:00 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

ChrisGraley and awallejr, I'm not the one who posted 71 comments on this blog post.  Also, my original post is quite calibrated, non-triumphal, cognizant of the dangers of hubris, etc.  Others in the comments have adopted a less charitable tone.  At least have the brains to attribute only my actual post to me.  Also, Barker is around, he posted another blog just the other day.  If he chooses not to respond to me, that's fine, it does not matter.  No doubt he is waiting silently and hoping gold goes to $3,000 so he can crucify my.  That's fine.  Whether he comments or not in response has no bearing on anything.

TDUM 

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#73) On April 19, 2013 at 5:50 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

TheDumbMoney how about you having the brains in learning to differentiate.  I responded to you personally only twice.  In comment #60 responding to your query in comment #55.  And by implication in comment #70 where I said there is NOTHING WRONG with bragging.

It is not my fault if you are so paranoid to think my criticisms of certain others here  included you but they know who they are.  This is just a spill-over from another thread:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/how-much-did-setting-the/802520

Next time ask before attacking.

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#74) On April 19, 2013 at 8:44 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

awwallejr, as long as you posted a link to my post, how come you didn't defend GMX when he was "crucified" by TMFSinch in his "Setting the REcord Straight" posts?

That's what I would say was "crucifixion" (feel free to read both TMFSinch's posts and comments again) with dozens of PM-lovers attacking GMX for no good reason.

Where were you then to defend GMX? Or where was outoffocus, or Chris Graley, or frankydontfailme? (Actually I know where was franky - he was too busy "crucifying" GMX to gether with TMFSinch).

I have already once before told outoffocus how come she always comes to posts attacking bears and gold-lovers with "Why can't we all just get along", but she somehow always misses the posts attacking bulls and not-so-much gold-lovers.

To me that's just a lot of "two-facedness" - being nice when it "works" for you, but missing from action when somebody you disagree with is being attacked. 

Also, why am I "crucifying" TMFSinch? Because I posted his old comments? I know that's not very nice of me, but ultimately, it's not my fault he was saying the stuff he said. 

Where were you when TMFSinch postyed his "A Little Blast from The Past" post? How many of you did say at that time 'TMFSinch is not nice posting other people's old posts'? Where were you?

I have no problem with people criticizing me (I deserve it), but please be consistent if you are playing a good Samaritan.

Bulls and not-so-much gold-lovers are people too. 

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#75) On April 19, 2013 at 9:00 PM, whereaminow (21.10) wrote:

Hey you got people talking on CAPS again.  So there's that.  Let's face it, no matter which way it goes the gold/silver story is interesting.  Best of luck this summer.

David in Liberty

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#76) On April 19, 2013 at 9:16 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Dragon that is irrelevant to TDUM's comment to me.  I have always been civil with him even in this thread, then he attacks me after over 70 comments. Yeah Sinch  was wrong in that one link against GMX but that wasn't the thread I was involved in nor you.  That was between him and Sinch. GMX and I have history too.  He name called me plenty.  But to his credit he did ultimately apologize.  So I hold no grudge.

You are free to go at it with me since my comments were directed at you.  I think you went overboard based on bad past blood.

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#77) On April 19, 2013 at 9:21 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

And I suppose there is that David, but I can't read this thread anymore on my Iphone since it takes too dang long to scroll down.  I am kind of surprised the Godwin Rule wasn't invoked yet here.

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#78) On April 19, 2013 at 10:13 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

You are free to go at it with me since my comments were directed at you.

Thanks for the invitation, but no, thanks. I'm trying to be nice now... :)

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#79) On April 19, 2013 at 10:26 PM, NOTvuffett (< 20) wrote:

Silver is interesting to me.  Mostly because  (about) half of the demand for silver is for industrial uses.  $22 sounds like a good deal to me.

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#80) On April 20, 2013 at 12:52 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Thanks for the invitation, but no, thanks. I'm trying to be nice now... :)

LOL. OK fair enough.

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#81) On April 20, 2013 at 11:15 AM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Pay attention to the half-mast flags forming on gold and silver.  Even if you are a bull, I would wait to see if these resolve negatively or not.  Peter Brandt is a professional commodity trader with like 30 or so years of experience trading his own money.  See this link:

http://peterlbrandt.com/flags-flying-at-half-mast-in-gold-and-silver/

 

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#82) On April 20, 2013 at 1:01 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

As an aside, I'm to glad to see you're embracing technical analysis TDUM. I hope you took advantage of it to avoid the crash in AAPL, (like I warned you), and don't just use for assets you don't like.

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#83) On April 21, 2013 at 12:26 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

My last post in this thread, and mostly because of the scotch.  I won't waste time with TDUM anymore but I have seen those silly technical charts after march of 2009 regarding equities.  And guess what?  They proved WRONG when the bears kept threatening.  Patterns do happen.  Predicting them is nothing but a guess.  Hindsight will determine what did happen but it is all GUESSING going foreward.

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#84) On June 21, 2013 at 7:40 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Just got around to looking at this again.  awallejr, my comment to you had nothing to do with the number of posts you made here.  It had to do with you telling me, in comment 60, that I was "crucifying a guy out of personal animosity over old fights." My comment respecting having brains, was in regard to you failing to note it was the other people posting tons of comments who were crucifying him, not me.  My original post was pretty moderate.  So basically your comment 73 is a non sequitur.  I'm not sure how you are "wasting" your time on me.

Dragon, sorry for going off on you a bit.  You're a good guy.

Belatedly,

TDM 

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#85) On June 21, 2013 at 7:40 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Oh, and silver is now below $20.  :-)

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#86) On June 21, 2013 at 7:42 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Franky, no I didn't sell Apple, but I didn't buy any more, because it started to signal bad entry points.  I own Apple at around $368, $390, $540 and $570.  Overall I'm about net even on it.  I think it's undervalued, because unlike silver, it is something for which value can be estimated.

Best,

TDM 

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#87) On June 22, 2013 at 1:35 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Oh, and silver is now below $20.  :-)

Buy.  Or are you doing some kind of an "I told you so" comment. Personally I don't care what gold/silver sells for from an investment perspective.  I care about it from a COST perspective. Since I am NEVER a seller of the same, lower costs are GOOD for me.

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#88) On June 22, 2013 at 12:30 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

I respectfully disagree and think that silver is a good buy, if ever, at no higher than about $14 or $15, based on its recent history.  I am doing an "I told you so" comment.

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#89) On June 22, 2013 at 1:54 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Nothing wrong with an "I told you so."  But since I don't try to time lows, cost averaging is fine for me since I see gold/silver making higher highs 10-20 years from now.  At my point in life, the only Being that intimidates me is God, and the only thing sexier than holding a handful of silver coins is holding a handful of gold coins ;)

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#90) On June 22, 2013 at 2:07 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

h and I missed this comment:

awallejr, my comment to you had nothing to do with the number of posts you made here.  It had to do with you telling me, in comment 60, that I was "crucifying a guy out of personal animosity over old fights.

I wasn't referring to you, I was referring to Dragon.

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#91) On June 22, 2013 at 2:47 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Well, then we're square.

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#92) On June 22, 2013 at 6:20 PM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Not really.  I already told you that in comment 73.

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#93) On June 23, 2013 at 7:06 PM, TheDumbMoney (38.50) wrote:

Dude really?  Your comment 73 does not address that.  If you want to be like that, whatever.  You're welcome to comment any time, and also welcome to hold a pointless grudge based on a misunderstanding.  Have a good day.

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#94) On June 24, 2013 at 12:49 AM, awallejr (85.49) wrote:

Seriously?  I told you in 73 it basically wasn't at you and yet you continue in 84. It was your 84 that was a non sequitur. Man you are obtuse.

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