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starbucks4ever (97.36)

And now the wave theory tells you to buy...

Recs

6

July 17, 2009 – Comments (2)

Now, not Schrodinger's wave theory, but Elliotts. Last time we reached 790, it gave a sell signal. Then we continued to go up, and when we went above 927, it generated a buy signal (yes, I know, that was according to one of the preferred counts). Then we dropped under 900, and it gave a sell signal. Then we reached 930 again, and it gave another buy signal. When the market was falling, this theory worked wonders. But when the trend changed, it immediately became yet another theory telling you how to sell low and buy high. 

2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 18, 2009 at 12:07 AM, repleteidiocy (31.77) wrote:

Idiocy is replete - and we are replete with idiocy!

Interesting....you basically use comical anecdotal statements - without actually investigating whether if you traded on the said signals would you have made money.

Also in a long term sense GV's signal has been Buy-and-Hold since 3/6/09.

I started this profile to test out a specific strategy. It was begun right at the end of Wave 3/C or the 927 initial high.

Here's what this profile did in CAPS

(a) It was the Hottest 1 day player in the 2nd day of existence
(b) It was the Hottest 7 day player in its very firts week.

Of course then it became obvious that I chose what was a Wave 3 peak and hence traded Wave 4 correction.....

So this profile also subsequently had  the

(c) 1 day coldest player 
(d) 7 day coldest player ....now in RL you would have exited with your gains - but in CAPS - there's this great theory of Accuracy - Oh Well!

Of course since then it had again

(e) 1 day Hottest player
(f)  7 day hottest player
(g) and 30 day hottest player

(h) Additionally it held the 30 day hottest player spot - for 3+ weeks - ie almost the entire 30 days possible!

(i) It ended the period with a +5 average score - ie positive Alpha in a period where SP remained at same levels.

Not everything is about showing "Making Millions for Dummies" - there is unfortunately yet to be a strategy like that. A lot of the times - this is a zero sum game - so it is never going to be possible, probably.

Even in quintessential buy-and-hold - its a bagholder strategy - you just hope and pray to god to replay the 1981-2000 era sans the 1987 program driven crash - and retire into the sunset - leaving the other poor buggers - to experience the crash which inevitably comes.

All the best in your investing ......I hope but do not believe it added anything to your thinking though

 

 

 

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#2) On July 18, 2009 at 5:08 AM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

What makes the entire GV story even more comical is his sudden disappearance at the last high...as he 'went on vacation'....only to reappear after the market turned and rallied 400 points...which he was also 'on vacation' for and missed.  I see he's back 'teaching', so a crash must be imminent...given his now bullish stance. 

 

Some talk the talk, some just walk the talk.  If you're on 'vacation', you're not supposed to be walking at all, right?  Or is that too obvious for you?  Replete idiocy would be an apt description of GV's attendence.  That much should be abundantly clear.  

 

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