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And the Pundits STILL Don't "get" Bernanke



September 18, 2013 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: KOOL , AI , D

It amazes me how the pundits have constantly misread Bernanke.  So today when the Fed report came out everyone was shocked that there was no tapering.  Well almost everyone since I said he wouldn't:, comment 2.  Comments 4,6,9 addressed the whys.

After the last press conference I could no longer listen to Bloomberg radio 10am-noon, 12:30pm-2pm.  I so wish they would get rid of Vonnie Quinn so I don't have to keep switching radio stations. Every day every guest she would talk about "will the Fed taper?"  In one minute I counted the word taper used TEN times. I got tired of shouting at the radio and stopped listening to that show.

With that rant aside, Yield is still King and there is no reason to hide from those high yielders.

I shake my head when I hear the pundits bemoan that we are only in a 2% Gdp recovery while we should be in a 4% one.  And we would be if Bernanke got help from the FISCAL side.  And if it wasn't for Bernanke we would be in recession.  This is why I don't understand the delay in appointing Yellen as his successor.  Market certainly wants it. I don't understand why President Obama doesn't since I doubt he would have won re-election if it wasn't for Fed actions.

The fact that we made a higher high today supports this bull market.  And the fact that the FED is still keeping interest rates low means that yield plays still work for me.

Now we are setting up for a correction in October because it seems the House Republicans are hell bent on "war."

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On September 18, 2013 at 9:37 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (79.55) wrote:

I have to admit to being somewhat surprised by the feds move today.

What I was expecting was a light weaning (like a heroin addict moving onto methadone). Or in the feds case buying 75B of bonds instead of 85B pr/mnth.

Yep, the Dem and the Rep's will totally screw this all up. (Buying opportunity?)

 For the time being-


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#2) On September 18, 2013 at 10:14 PM, awallejr (34.67) wrote:

I can't believe people dressed like that in the '70s. 1970s the lost decade of fashion.  Yeah I wore bell bottoms;p

I think it will be a buying opportunity Harry.  Corrections need to occur after new highs.  I actually have dry powder for it after reshuffling my portfolio. I have another small reshuffle to do and I am good to go.  Please take a look at AINV.  I suggested it elsewhere to Lemon and, while Cramer admits he doesn't understand the space, this stock is cheap with a solid yield.

But the only reason why people were surprised by a no taper, I submit, is because they all talked themselves into expecting it.

I shook my head when traders were pissed that there wasn't a taper.  Many traders went short and got burned. If they listened to me (free of charge, not selling anything whatsoever) they wouldn't have. 

Eventually a taper will occur, but Bernanke won't be the one doing it because he will let his replacement decide.  If Yellen is the replacement then he might but ONLY with her blessing and if the data supports it.

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#3) On September 23, 2013 at 8:49 AM, drgroup (67.98) wrote:

"it seems the House Republicans are hell bent on "war."

Thank g-d there are still some responsible adults breathing air in congress. In case you haven't noticed, the dem's are also well equipped to wage war. Just listen to some of their generals ie pelosi, reed, schumer, frank, obama, mc cain...(chuckle) to name a few...

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#4) On September 23, 2013 at 7:13 PM, awallejr (34.67) wrote:

McCain ran for President on the Republican ticket.

I thought I read that Obama was going to put forward who he wil nominate for the FED today.  Kind of wish he would stop delaying.

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#5) On September 23, 2013 at 9:08 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (79.55) wrote:

Were you as confused as I was when one of the Fed members came out the next day and announced that they "may" start tapering at the start of October.

Pardon my French, but my exact quote was-

"ok, now there just f*ckin with us"

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#6) On September 23, 2013 at 9:28 PM, awallejr (34.67) wrote:

Yeah I think in their effort to be transparent they really are being vague.  Now people have to figure out how the Fed will interpret the data.  I really felt Bernanke made a mistake in his prior press conference when he laid out the exit strategy.  I understood it to mean not a given for September, but many viewed it otherwise and got pissed because they got burned shorting.

I submit all he was really trying to say was this is the EVENTUAL exit strategy because he knew he wasn't returning and didn't want to be perceived as "dumping" the exit strategy on someone else.

I don't see any urgency for the FED to taper.  So what if they add another year or two in asset purchases.  It is going to take decades to unwind it anyway.

The real issue is Congress helping FISCALLY.  We need tax reform but that is just unlikely to happen.

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#7) On October 08, 2013 at 7:23 PM, awallejr (34.67) wrote:

About time:


Obama to name Yellen as next Fed chair on Wednesday - White House

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#8) On October 08, 2013 at 8:35 PM, HarryCaraysGhost (79.55) wrote:

Yeah, just read that.

Maybe this will sway all the a$$hats in D.C to actually step up and do their job.


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#9) On October 08, 2013 at 9:18 PM, awallejr (34.67) wrote:

Well I can at least understand Obama's reluctance to try to use the 14th Amendment since things actually could get messy if the Supreme Court did find it unconstitutional.

I do like the Mitch McConnell rule where the President can raise the debt ceiling then requiring a Congressional approval resolution or disapproval resolution.  If disapproved then the President vetos it and then needing a 2/3 rd vote to overturn.

That actually might work and it basically takes using the debt ceiling as a weapon off the table.

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#10) On October 08, 2013 at 9:36 PM, awallejr (34.67) wrote:

Oh and Go Cardinals ;p

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