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And they get paid for this?!?!

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October 02, 2009 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: EA , EXP

Economists forcast that the jobs report this morning would come out with 175,000 jobs lost. The real number was 263,000. That's 88,000 more jobs lost than they predicted. THAT'S MORE THAN 50% MORE JOBS LOST THAN THESE 'EXPERTS' PREDICTED!!! I'm not sure of too many industries where one can be off by more than 50% and still keep their job.

On a related note, it's nice to see that the market is waking up to reality. I hope that all those who endured and stayed invested through the crash last fall have protection (stop-losses, cash, etc.) this time. Hopefully we have all learned a thing or two over the last 10 years!

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 02, 2009 at 9:46 AM, SkepticalOx (99.42) wrote:

The key is that if the majority get it wrong, then it's "unexpected" and no one sticks out like a sort thumb (same goes for analysts). I like what Taleb said in the interview on CNBC when they were talking about employment numbers months ago... Why are we even listening to these folks when they didn't predict the crisis?

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#2) On October 02, 2009 at 9:53 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Those tickers are awesome!

Economists baffle me. They forecast sunshine and daisies when the market is at a top, just like they were forecasting continued weakness and recession at the bottom. If you ever want a contrary indicator, just listen to mainstream economists.

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#3) On October 02, 2009 at 11:02 AM, portefeuille (99.61) wrote:

THAT'S MORE THAN 50% MORE JOBS LOST THAN THESE 'EXPERTS' PREDICTED!!!

what will be your comment when the loss of 1 job is expected and 2 jobs are lost?

 

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#4) On October 03, 2009 at 2:14 AM, amassafortune (29.45) wrote:

Economists, treasury officials, the Fed, and politicians have sown seeds of optimism for the past year. Their motives, though overly optimistic, may not have been intentionally sinister. More than once, I have seen unattainable targets met with no more reason than that good people were released upon a challenge that inspired their best efforts. Those efforts, however, did not have a burden like the leveraged debt load that is preventing a U.S. recovery. Key players, like the large banks, keep grabbing doughnuts at the water stations and this fuel will not sustain the effort of a marathon. We should have carbo-loaded but we went to a party instead. 

Continuing the metaphor, this market has run about as far as it can on a diet of cheers and sugary reports followed by revisions. The effort hit the wall at 1080. The legs know it, the lungs know it, and the psyche is submitting. Optimism may have been sown, but the shoots have ripened as shorting opportunities. This is the harvest season.

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#5) On October 03, 2009 at 2:24 AM, MGDG (34.94) wrote:

I read yesterday where 52% of those who have gone on unemployment since the recession started, have used up their benefits without finding a job. They are collecting emergency benefits which are now close to ending. They are talking about adding another emergency 13 week extension to benefits.

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