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alstry (< 20)

Another 640K Americans Lost Their Jobs



April 23, 2009 – Comments (6)

US weekly initial jobless claims up 27K to 640K

That is 640K American Families that were not unemployed last week.

That is 640K American Families that might lose health coverage if they can't find replacement work.

That is 640K American Families infected with the FU virus.

And for those of you Fools that don't really think it is a BIG number, think if America was in a war and we were getting reports of 600-650K casualties each and every week, week after week, month after long do you think it would take before we reached 30,000,000 casualties???

And there were some Fools claiming that things were looking better last week because INITIAL claims dropped slighly from the week before but still OVER 600K.  Do the math my friends, at this rate, it will likely not be too much longer before many Fools will be unemployed.

US 4-wk avg ongoing claims up 143K to record 5.94M

The only reason this number is only at around 6 million is because each week hundreds of thousands are dropped off the rolls because they have been unemployed for so long.  Mathematically, U3 is a terrible indicator of unemployment because it fails to pick up millions of Americans who are still unemployed buy no longer counted due to the duration of their unemployment.....especially during a period of declining job openings when the liklihood of rehire is even less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We are seeing significant enrollment declines in health insurance due to the layoffs.  Just look at the quarterly earnings reports of health insurers.  Guess who is going to have to pick up those costs.....that is right my and me as healthcare costs are spread over a pool of fewer and fewer people.

It is not that many of you Fools are not intelligent, most of you are much smarter than me, but many of you seem to want to insulate yourselves from the FACTS.  In life, when you do that long enough, and your head is buried in the ground with your backside in the air, if conditions are deteriorating fast enough, inevitably the FACTS come back to bite you in the backside.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 23, 2009 at 9:06 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

If you do the math, at this rate approximately 35,000,000 Americans will lose their jobs in 2009.  That is OVER 20% of the workforce.  If half of them find satisfactory replacement work, we will have a net of approximately 17,000,000 additional unemployed individuals/families in 2009.

With U6 unemployment rate at already 16.2%, as long as the layoffs don't accellerate, it almost guarantees that U6 unemployment will be over 25% by the end of the year.

For those mathematically inclined, there is a compounding effect to adverse feedback loops, that is why Alstrynomics is making a 30% U6 unemployment projections by the end of the year.....or approximately 40,000,000 to 50,000,000 million Americans who want to work but are unable....the number may be materially higher if spouses of workers who are not currently counted, as stay at home parents, re enter the workforce to make up for lost income.

The math ain't just have to think a that may be taxing.

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#2) On April 23, 2009 at 9:25 AM, Varchild2008 (85.06) wrote:

Starting Thursday (possibly) several General Motors plants will go IDLE.. laying thousands of workers off for 9 weeks.
Granted.. the employees get to keep 90% of their pay because of UAW contract.

But, those numbers aren't in the mix yet....  And should GM go bankrupt you can kiss the 90% pay to thousands of workers good bye.  June 1st is the deadline.

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#3) On April 23, 2009 at 9:31 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

The people that aren't "protected" are the multiple times greater number of supplier workers who are likely going to be shut out due to not having a Union contract.

The GM specific workers are only a small fraction of the total number being affected by the shutdowns.

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#4) On April 23, 2009 at 1:36 PM, RonChapmanJr (29.79) wrote:

I agree it is going to get ugly, but I do have to question the math here.  600,000+ people are losing their job each month, not each week.  Are you reading different sources than I am?


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#5) On April 24, 2009 at 12:05 AM, awallejr (52.41) wrote:

It's called Alstry math.

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#6) On April 24, 2009 at 7:53 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Ron....Maybe at Harvard INITIAL weekly means something else.....

US weekly initial jobless claims up 27K to 640K

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