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Another View of Risk



November 30, 2009 – Comments (3)

Like I was mentioning in my last post (A Look at a Few Gold Ratios / A Few Words on Risk), the risk environment is rising.

And this shows up on many other measures besides gold. Look a comparison of the Dow ("safe" blue chips) vs. the Russell 2000 ("risky" small caps), and tell me in a straight face that risk is low and it is safe to be bullish.

Well, I am just going to go ahead and show you.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 30, 2009 at 3:01 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Keep buying those dips! /**heavy** sarcasm/

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#2) On November 30, 2009 at 8:06 PM, Tastylunch (28.66) wrote:

Binve I  think the better comparison may be summer 2007 (july-august) to now. The rise and general market disbelief that things kept going higher was more similiar...If so the jan-March timezone for trouble continues to look to be a good fit. (Whereas the the fall 2008 time period equities were well into crash mode)

Plus I think the decent from jan through may or so in 2008 is more like what we'll get in this downkick as opposed to a bottom falling out lehman event Well at least at first.

Unless of course you know we get a major event (like an actual default by Dubai). 

My two cents.

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#3) On November 30, 2009 at 8:57 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey Tasty, I think this is where we differ. I think we are still in crash mode. Primary 2 is just a relief rally before P3. Things will be headed down, but not crashing for a few months and then we will get another hard crash. I think the highlighted box last year in the chart above will show a similar pattern to what we will see at the end of this year / next year. Here is my projection for that. Projections, In the Corner of My Mind

My $0.015 :)

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